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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Euro looks like It May turn inland soon.
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Models always seem to underestimate influence from the ne. I don't fall for the fish storm play easily, lol. I've seen too many fish storms not be fish storms :) I'm still not washing my vehicles, and I may do the gutters again just to make sure I have the anti whammy working well. No sighs of relief until it's past Ga. and even then they sometimes come back around and chase you, lol.
 
Still can't rest easy after that significant 0Z Euro westward shift. But what this really does is move the Euro from being a right outlier to close to the more dependable consensus just offshore.
 
NHC is gonna have some tough decisions this morning(in addition to this intensity controversy) hurricane watches will probably be required for FL
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I won’t be surprised based off H5 to see another small shift west to put it on the coast which will definitely ramp up conditions in your area.
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Good gosh, I hope not! I'm still not overly worried to be honest because the center only came 30 miles closer to me at its closest approach on the 0Z Euro and it is still 120 miles away vs 150 miles on the 12Z. So, fortunately it would still take a big shift west for my area to start getting in the "significant hit" zone...say if my area got within 60 or so miles. And then if it did shift like that, it might be over land ( N FL/SE GA) before thus weakening him some.
 
GaWx said:
Good gosh, I hope not! I'm still not overly worried to be honest because the center only came 30 miles closer to me at its closest approach on the 0Z Euro and it is still 120 miles away vs 150 miles on the 12Z. So, fortunately it would still take a big shift west for my area to start getting in the "significant hit" zone...say if my area got within 60 or so miles. And then if it did shift like that, it would likely be over land ( N FL/SE GA) before thus weakening him some.
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What you thoughts for Charleston in terms of winds and rain?
 
That’s a lot of strong convection and lightning east of Dorian. Hopefully it doesn’t develop while Dorian stalls.
 
GaWx said:
0Z Euro hour 54 clearly the furthest west of last 4 runs at the stall point..so much closer to SE FL.
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I agree! Def. the furthest west, but what I took most of out that run is it dropped its unrealistic (IMO) stall for like 24 hours from a couple of runs ago.
 
Brent said:
NHC is gonna have some tough decisions this morning(in addition to this intensity controversy) hurricane watches will probably be required for FL
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I have always thought its better to be pro-active when it comes to those types of things with watches and warnings. I know people get mad when they bust (either good or bad) but thats a tough call. Today's movement will be by far most important as models really try to slow this down later today just off shore of the coastline. That was a very close call from the doc. I am glad it stopped with that wierd super long stall. didn't seem realistic.
 
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