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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

ForsythSnow said:
The second trough would have to be a complete whiff and the high would have to build stronger from the east for that to happen. I wouldn't rule that out until tomorrow. I wouldn't rule any path out until it makes a different move, or simply keeps going.
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I feel better now ... though I was nuts here the past couple days ... :eek:
 
ForsythSnow said:
The second trough would have to be a complete whiff and the high would have to build stronger from the east for that to happen. I wouldn't rule that out until tomorrow. I wouldn't rule any path out until it makes a different move, or simply keeps going.
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To your point.....hate to say it, but look at 06z ICON. IMO worse case scenario of this west movement.
 
Those islands is about to get absolutely messed up, I bet that eye is gonna look insane once it passes over
 
deltadog03 said:
Look how bad some of the modeling has been again in the short term. They keep trying to push this further away from the coast (have been) but look how its correcting every run...
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Remember when this was safely out to sea and anyone saying it could still be west was wishcasting. Fun times

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It also amazes me how Globals have an awful time representing true pressures. I know thats not really there job to do that for sure, but someone who is smarter than me tell me this.....I believe the EURO is ran on with a 9km RES, is that right? If so, how cant even the new 6z euro run show a pressure (in the short term) even CLOSE to what the hurricane is. Check out that euro run, almost a 35-50mb difference. I wonder if thats **PART** of the reason why globals struggle a lot with tropics. (and yes I know its harder because there is no upper drops usually until closer to land)
 
deltadog03 said:
It also amazes me how Globals have an awful time representing true pressures. I know thats not really there job to do that for sure, but someone who is smarter than me tell me this.....I believe the EURO is ran on with a 9km RES, is that right? If so, how cant even the new 6z euro run show a pressure (in the short term) even CLOSE to what the hurricane is. Check out that euro run, almost a 35-50mb difference. I wonder if thats **PART** of the reason why globals struggle a lot with tropics. (and yes I know its harder because there is no upper drops usually until closer to land)
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Yeah, it has some impact for sure, stronger storm > better outflow/ventilation that almost pumps and strengthens the ridge in a way to it’s north, which a weaker storm like some models showed wouldn't since the pressure was wrong
 
KyloG said:
Woke up to this. I thought if it made it to 30/80 it was going to be tough to miss land

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ok...I know I am getting older in age...lol but look how slow the doc is....so does that say it is suppose to be hitting that bigger island, in like 18 hours from 6z this morning (6z run)? so if my math is right, this euro run has it hitting that island at like 8pm tonight? Dorian is approaching the island in the next few hours unless it really slows down.
 
deltadog03 said:
ok...I know I am getting older in age...lol but look how slow the doc is....so does that say it is suppose to be hitting that bigger island, in like 18 hours from 6z this morning (6z run)? so if my math is right, this euro run has it hitting that island at like 8pm tonight? Dorian is approaching the island in the next few hours unless it really slows down.
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Yes sir....you nailed it.....and these time differences continued to exist over the past 2 days. IMO, the storm continued to outrun the models.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I guess I mentally caved to the OTS trend at the wrong time lol.
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If it hits, its your fault.

1960s-man-wearing-dunce-cap-vintage-images.jpg
 
metwannabe said:
Dorian still seems relatively small to me, have there not been that many EWRC? Seems to have maintained it's almost perfect shape with very little fluctuation and no expansion of the wind field for quite some time now
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I was thinking that as well. To be honest that is kind of weird...
 
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