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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
Of course atm Dorian still chugging along, crossing 74W now....
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What is the distance between each degree in that area? 64 miles?

If it keeps going West (or WNW) at 8 mph for a while instead of changing to NW, then it will be a fair distance from where it was expected to be and the models will have to adjust unless they respond with an even sharper change to compensate for being further West than expected.
 
I’m breathing pretty easy for my area based on the 0Z GFS/GEFS, the ICON, CMC, HWRF, and that IBM model notwithstanding. As long as the Euro stays pretty far east, I’ll be even better and getting closer to feeling confident of nothing bad. The current movement as I said earlier doesn’t phase me because the good models, including Euro, have shown this.
 
Pressure has dropped, but not any change in winds.

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN CLOSING IN ON THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS...
2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.3°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
 
GaWx said:
I’m breathing pretty easy for my area based on the 0Z GFS/GEFS, the ICON, CMC, HWRF, and that IBM model notwithstanding. As long as the Euro stays pretty far east, I’ll be even better and getting closer to feeling confident of nothing bad. The current movement as I said earlier doesn’t phase me because the good models, including Euro, have shown this.
Click to expand...
What is your area because Lowcountry of SC is definitely still in play.
 
Went back and looked at the past six NHC advisories (all times ET):

11 a.m., 26.0 N, 73.4 W, movement W 8 mph
2 p.m., 26.1 N, 73.9 W, movement W 8 mph
5 p.m., 26.2 N, 74.4 W, movement W 8 mph
8 p.m., 26.2 N, 74.7 W, movement W 8 mph
11 p.m., 26.3 N, 75.1 W, movement W 8 mph
2 a.m., 26.3 N, 75.6 W, movement W 8 mph

Slightest wobbles to the north but consistent movement west. How far west does this go before we see the turn to the WNW/NW? Fascinating/terrifying/frustrating storm to follow.

--30--
 
Simply a convective blowup on the western eyewall causing a wobble west or even sw can change impacts for the FL coast, so close here
 
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