• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

HMON a little East when it’s paralleling the coast of Florida, man what a tough storm to predict
 
It's interesting that since 2018, NHC has determined that SFMR may be inaccurate in very intense hurricanes. Despite several SFMR readings supporting Category 5 intensity from different aircraft, NHC has kept Dorian at 130 kt since flight level winds do not yet support Category 5 intensity.

In 2016 and 2017 NHC primarily used SFMR for intensity estimates. Matthew was upgraded to 145 kt based on a SFMR reading of 143 kt, but the maximum flight level winds actually were only 138 kt. If NHC followed the blending technique today, Matthew would be a Category 4. Then you have Irma in 2017, which was a Category 5 operationally with 160 kt winds based on a 160 kt SFMR, but the peak intensity was revised downward to 155 kt in its TCR in favor of blending the flight-level and SFMR readings.
 
pcbjr said:
Intermediate but one good thing ... the cone isn't adjusted west ...
Click to expand...
It takes them awhile to adjust their cone. The other day when the models were obviously shifting east, it took them a day to shift the cone east! They are waiting for a trend
 
I guess the 0z models will tell if we have a trend. Really I don’t think I know anymore though


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
deltadog03 said:
Yall check this out...look at the cloud field NORTH of Dorian (ie not associated with the hurricane circulation) check which way the clouds are moving. they are moving E to W pretty nicely. That tells me for sure that the ridge to the north is definitely still in control..

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?par...a-13-48-0-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
Click to expand...

Looking at that loop it almost looks like the clouds are heading a bit SW, and also Dorian while it has mostly been moving west, it’s almost non negligible but when you look at it carefully, it almost looks like it was moving WSW, barely noticeable tho
 
And around we go with the HWRF, back to where it was just a couple days ago.
 
730
URNT15 KWBC 010005
NOAA2 2605A DORIAN HDOB 18 20190831
235600 2655N 07444W 7523 02504 0041 +132 +103 084066 067 056 002 00
235630 2653N 07444W 7514 02510 0032 +138 +084 085067 068 058 000 00
235700 2651N 07444W 7516 02501 0020 +142 +098 086068 068 059 000 00
235730 2649N 07444W 7521 02492 0017 +141 +106 085068 068 061 001 00
235800 2647N 07444W 7529 02480 0002 +150 +101 083069 069 060 001 00
235830 2645N 07444W 7517 02486 9998 +147 +098 083071 072 062 001 00
235900 2643N 07444W 7518 02471 9988 +145 +111 083073 075 064 002 00
235930 2641N 07444W 7521 02462 9983 +140 +116 085076 077 065 002 00
000000 2639N 07444W 7518 02455 9972 +141 +109 085079 080 068 000 00
000030 2637N 07444W 7527 02437 9964 +137 +113 084083 084 069 001 00
000100 2635N 07444W 7529 02421 9954 +134 +105 084089 091 073 002 00
000130 2633N 07444W 7518 02415 9936 +133 +112 084095 097 074 001 00
000200 2632N 07443W 7525 02391 9909 +139 +127 089101 103 079 010 00
000230 2630N 07443W 7526 02368 9887 +135 +135 085105 109 083 018 00
000300 2628N 07443W 7526 02337 9845 +144 +137 086114 117 091 028 00
000330 2626N 07443W 7507 02322 9803 +142 //// 085117 120 098 033 01
000400 2624N 07443W 7510 02272 9750 +144 //// 084125 130 113 032 01
000430 2622N 07443W 7507 02205 9673 +142 //// 082139 142 132 070 01
000500 2621N 07443W 7471 02139 9563 +147 //// 082127 136 148 056 01
000530 2619N 07443W 7515 02027 9462 +181 +168 081080 099 149 045 03


NOAA aircraft found more Category 5 winds.
 
I’m a wishcaster/hyper but I don’t even think this has a chance going into Georgia inland after Florida. I’m still largely east of there but not ruling out further north areas near Wilm. I don’t believe it’s a trend with models I’m going with.
 
Personally I was always suspicious of the planned sharp turn ever since Dorian was moving due west for a long time. If it does not start to change course soon then I feel like the NHC will have a lot on their hands
 
18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!
 
GaWx said:
18Z Euro at 90 (end): just a hair west of 12Z run but east of 0Z. No reason to think this wouldn’t have recurved enough to at most skirted parts of Carolinas, especially NC like 12Z did. So, I call that good agreement with the 12Z Euro. But 0Z run, with additional data inputs, will be the key one. Everyone set your Euro alarms!
Click to expand...

It’s really that time of year, summer boringness is over, it’s hurricanes, fall severe wx and failboat winter storms here on out !
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top