Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[GaWx]

Personally I was always suspicious of the planned sharp turn ever since Dorian was moving due west for a long time. If it does not start to change course soon then I feel like the NHC will have a lot on their hands

Keep in mind that a sharp turn for a slow mover and especially a quasi-stalker isn’t that much out of the ordinary. A fast mover would be different.

 

[Henry2326]

Navgem king of the B team.

View attachment 22663

Brutal...edge of the eye scraps the SC coast.
This is the GFS with another tick west.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Arcc]

It's interesting that since 2018, NHC has determined that SFMR may be inaccurate in very intense hurricanes. Despite several SFMR readings supporting Category 5 intensity from different aircraft, NHC has kept Dorian at 130 kt since flight level winds do not yet support Category 5 intensity.

In 2016 and 2017 NHC primarily used SFMR for intensity estimates. Matthew was upgraded to 145 kt based on a SFMR reading of 143 kt, but the maximum flight level winds actually were only 138 kt. If NHC followed the blending technique today, Matthew would be a Category 4. Then you have Irma in 2017, which was a Category 5 operationally with 160 kt winds based on a 160 kt SFMR, but the peak intensity was revised downward to 155 kt in its TCR in favor of blending the flight-level and SFMR readings.

I’m pretty sure they recorded FL of 152knts just before landfall because I remember talking about at ten percent reduction it was 137knts which is Cat 5.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

I think Cranky has some interesting points that support we are only about half time, getting ready to start the third quarter tomorrow. Go DAWGS!

 

[Metwannabe]

Not much if any change with 18z eps, most members offshore

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[Ethan80963]

 

[Snowfan]

344
URNT15 KWBC 010125
NOAA2 2605A DORIAN HDOB 26 20190901
011600 2611N 07445W 7490 02128 9555 +164 +159 201123 127 128 008 00
011630 2611N 07447W 7499 02023 9444 +180 +166 201091 100 128 000 03
011700 2612N 07449W 7522 01958 9386 +202 +159 201038 055 034 001 03
011730 2613N 07451W 7513 01973 9390 +195 +162 182008 012 027 000 00
011800 2614N 07453W 7516 01969 9400 +182 +170 105011 014 026 000 00
011830 2615N 07455W 7515 01966 9395 +189 +165 084022 028 034 000 00
011900 2616N 07458W 7514 01979 9405 +188 +162 062045 057 057 003 00
011930 2617N 07500W 7525 02011 9453 +181 +162 041086 102 127 005 03
012000 2618N 07502W 7512 02116 9567 +150 //// 037139 151 153 045 01
012030 2619N 07503W 7529 02182 9670 +143 //// 038134 139 127 058 01
012100 2620N 07505W 7517 02256 9737 +149 +145 039123 126 112 042 00
012130 2621N 07507W 7530 02292 9791 +150 +146 042115 117 100 021 00
012200 2622N 07509W 7542 02322 9826 +161 +137 043108 108 090 009 00
012230 2623N 07511W 7527 02369 9872 +153 +124 042099 103 083 005 00
012300 2624N 07513W 7530 02388 9901 +153 +105 044094 096 080 002 00
012330 2625N 07515W 7512 02433 9934 +142 +120 042087 090 076 000 03
012400 2626N 07517W 7504 02457 9954 +140 +116 041081 082 069 000 03
012430 2627N 07519W 7522 02452 9971 +138 +118 042078 081 065 000 00
012500 2628N 07521W 7512 02471 9983 +135 +122 042074 075 062 001 00
012530 2629N 07523W 7526 02466 0001 +131 +115 043070 070 057 001 00

153 knots found. Pressure is down to 939.5.

 

[Metwannabe]

18z eps

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[deltadog03]

We are about on the edge here pressure wise, based on recon now, so this would be **current** steering

 

[Metwannabe]

We are about on the edge here pressure wise, based on recon now, so this would be **current** steeringView attachment 22665

Yep and still motoring westward, dang thing getting close to Bahamas now too. Better slow down soon

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[ForsythSnow]

So we are getting more cat 5 FL winds now on both the NW and NE quadrants. In the NW there were two readings of FL winds of 137+ knots in a row. Pressure is still only dropping 1mb a pass, so nothing special. However, if we see another RI event then he will be a strong 5.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

I think no Florida landfall and the Carolinas will go through the same thing where it’s looks like it will hit then it will miss. This thing knows where the coastline is lol.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Tell me this isn't a cat 5 now.

 

[Snowfan]

Tell me this isn't a cat 5 now.

I agree with you. This storm is certainly Cat 5. I wonder why NHC hasn't upgraded it yet?

 

[pcbjr]

We are about on the edge here pressure wise, based on recon now, so this would be **current** steeringView attachment 22665

8 ball side pocket? 8 ball corner pocket?

 

[ForsythSnow]

I agree with you. This storm is certainly Cat 5. I wonder why NHC hasn't upgraded it yet?

This just came in that's why. Give it 5 to 10 minutes of assessment and I think they'll make the call.

 

[Henry2326]

Yep and still motoring westward, dang thing getting close to Bahamas now too. Better slow down soon

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There is quite a timing difference in sitting over the Bahamas:
Navgem, CMC, Icon is 18z Sunday night
GFS and Legacy is 00z on Sunday night
Euro is 12z on Monday

If it makes it there sooner than 18z, likely more west impact that even presented so far?!?