Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[KyloG]

Wonder how many hurricanes got to 30/80 and missed the Carolinas.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Out to 27hrs 18z HMON is tracking Dorian slightly NW of 12z, but Dorian is also moving slightly faster across the Bahamas.

 

[RBR71]

Wonder how many hurricanes got to 30/80 and missed the Carolinas.

View attachment 22644

Not many

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[Ollie Williams]

For those Interested here are all the model biases to keep a reference for. Can somebody add this to the WIKI?
http://weathereyes.blogspot.com/p/numerical-weather-prediction-model.html

 

[Henry2326]

Wonder how many hurricanes got to 30/80 and missed the Carolinas.

These hit-
David - spot on
Floyd is close
Diana is close
Of course Matthew

Can't find any that didn't hit.......

 

[Downeastnc]

Wonder how many hurricanes got to 30/80 and missed the Carolinas.

That is pretty far west......but when the GFS and Euro agree on something its tough to bet against it.....really though in my humble opinion I wont feel like the OTS in the Carolina's is a lock until Monday when the turn is done....how long and where that turn happens will matter a lot for us up here. Personally for me where I live here just east of Greenville NC there is a big difference between a Floyd like track and even one right on the beaches much less 50-100 miles off the coast as far as what kind of conditions I have to deal with.

I can think of a few that were that far west and never hit...I will say that almost all the ones that miss after being that far west are the ones crawling up the coast, the storms that are moving at a good speed tend to hit.....the models take 50 hrs or so to go from over the northern Bahamas to off of Jacksonville Fl, that gives time for the ridge to the west to nose in enough to get Dorian OTS...so I will wait till Monday to see what the models do with the upper level setup mid to late week, and how long the turn takes before I buy into any track OTS...

 

[Downeastnc]

These hit-
David - spot on
Floyd is close
Diana is close
Of course Matthew

Can't find any that didn't hit.......

View attachment 22646View attachment 22647View attachment 22648

Not to go to far off topic but Diana was my first so she is special, I was 12 and it was the first time I remember a hurricane even though it was not that bad here at all, I remember everyone freaking out though cause without that little loop right at the coast she would have been a top 3 hit for NC.....most people dont realize what a badass she was RIGHT ON THE COAST and had she not turned.......

 

[Henry2326]

Not to go to far off topic but Diana was my first so she is special, I was 12 and it was the first time I remember a hurricane even though it was not that bad here at all, I remember everyone freaking out though cause without that little loop right at the coast she would have been a top 3 hit for NC.....most people dont realize what a badass she was RIGHT ON THE COAST and had she not turned.......

View attachment 22649

Sounds like Dorian....

 

[deltadog03]

**NOT saying that this is going to happen again*** BUT do we ALL remember when this was near the windward islands how AWFUL ALL of the models where in terms of strength but especially track with the short term?

 

[pcbjr]

For those Interested here are all the model biases to keep a reference for. Can somebody add this to the WIKI?
http://weathereyes.blogspot.com/p/numerical-weather-prediction-model.html

In Wiki > Models>Model Bias Info
Thanks!!!!!

New section ... if anyone else wants to contribute ...

 

[Ollie Williams]

Decent shift Westward on the GEFS.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Still a long way to go. Just too premature for anyone from Florida to NC to think they are out of the woods yet. The models are still going west with some runs. Just back and forth still.

 

[Raine1963]

Anyone thinking Cat 5 soon?

 

[Brent]

Hwrf is west too. I give up lol

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I think a Cat 5 is possible soon. The structure is incredible and is classic of a major right now.

Also, the HWRF with another major shift towards the FL coast, ruh roh.

 

[deltadog03]

Ok y'all check this out. The satellite image is OLD, but I drew in the current position. Not much gaining of latitude today. Oh ya, still moving pretty quickly for a strong cane.

 

[pcbjr]

Hwrf is west too. I give up lolView attachment 22656

Dude, I gave up 2 days ago ... it's just watch and see (wish it were sea) ...

 

[Brent]

HWRF looks like its gonna hit Canaveral

 

[Snowfan]

HWRF is not looking good for Florida.

 

[pcbjr]

HWRF is not looking for Florida.

Thanks

 

[Raine1963]

Is there anymore RECON coming out tonight?

 

[Brick Tamland]

HWRF looks like its gonna hit Canaveral

Back to where we were a couple days ago.

 

[pcbjr]

HWRF looks like its gonna hit Canaveral

HWRF is not looking good for Florida.

Really enjoy these dinnertime posts ... LOL

Keep up and move on ...

 

[pcbjr]

BTW ... how much weight does the NHC put in the HWRF? Serious question.

 

[Brent]

The only good news if its right its rapidly weakening

 

[pcbjr]

The only good news if its right its rapidly weakeningView attachment 22658

Thank you Mary ...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

HWRF: Florida landfall near Jacksonville it seems to me.

Oof.

 

[Snowfan]

HWRF goes back to Florida landfall.

 

[Snowfan]

912
URNT15 KNHC 312326
AF308 2505A DORIAN HDOB 24 20190831
231630 2623N 07446W 6966 02951 9837 +348 +348 059108 109 094 021 00
231700 2622N 07445W 6978 02907 9809 +348 +348 059115 117 102 014 00
231730 2621N 07444W 6968 02882 9771 +348 +348 059122 125 105 018 03
231800 2621N 07443W 6962 02846 9724 +346 +346 061131 133 /// /// 03
231830 2620N 07442W 6997 02762 9684 +345 +345 061138 140 /// /// 03
231900 2619N 07441W 6966 02753 9621 +345 +345 062142 144 143 046 00
231930 2618N 07441W 6964 02700 9551 +348 +348 064128 142 145 043 03
232000 2618N 07440W 6988 02635 9486 +283 //// 067085 114 139 012 05
232030 2616N 07438W 6970 02625 9425 +218 //// 067049 069 065 004 05
232100 2615N 07438W 6973 02613 //// +152 //// 074024 036 038 001 05
232130 2613N 07437W 6974 02608 //// +149 //// 086012 018 025 001 05
232200 2611N 07437W 6970 02612 //// +142 //// 102002 008 024 001 01
232230 2610N 07436W 6970 02614 //// +136 //// 260012 019 026 002 01
232300 2608N 07436W 6965 02636 //// +138 //// 263035 047 041 003 05
232330 2606N 07435W 6961 02668 //// +160 //// 256075 090 078 003 05
232400 2605N 07433W 6981 02703 9552 +297 //// 245115 119 123 027 05
232430 2604N 07431W 6960 02809 9610 +201 //// 238118 120 128 039 05
232500 2603N 07430W 6962 02868 //// +138 //// 234112 118 120 012 01
232530 2602N 07429W 6967 02915 9781 +375 +375 232100 107 101 007 03
232600 2600N 07427W 6963 02957 9829 +374 +374 231091 096 /// /// 03

They just found more Category 5 winds,.

 

[pcbjr]

HWRF goes back to Florida landfall.

Is cursing still not a preferred way of communication?

 

[Weatherlover92]

Anyone thinking Cat 5 soon?

Yes, I think it's very likely Dorian will peak as a Cat. 5. I could see it peaking in the 165-175mph range imo. On IR the western side looks a lot better than earlier today, it's been very elongated in it's structure.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Is cursing still not a preferred way of communication?

Let it all out!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

scary thing to, is that so far today, the HWRF has done extremely well, with pressure and track

 

[BHS1975]

scary thing to, is that so far today, the HWRF has done extremely well, with pressure and track

Yeah it did well with Micheal too.


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[Weatherlover92]

18z HWRF - Heading NW up to the FL/GA border.

 

[pcbjr]

Let it all out!

We have ladies on board ... otherwise ...

 

[Weatherlover92]

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...
8:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.2°N 74.7°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

 

[Myfrotho704_]

18z HWRF - Heading NW up to the FL/GA border.
View attachment 22659

Lmao the HWRF already sees those sups in the outer bands with a tornado potential, more than enough cape and surprisingly low freezing levels, and typical big ol hodo

 

[pcbjr]

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...
8:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.2°N 74.7°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 941 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Intermediate but one good thing ... the cone isn't adjusted west ...

 

[Meteorologist1999]

I feel bad for any Meteorologist saying this storm is going ots 4-5 days out. Ooooo they gonna regret it??