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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

metwannabe said:
Yeah I saw, does kinda a mini loop
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I guess after looking at the models I should clean up my statement about it's no longer left of track. It becomes LOT on the gfs and legacy but it's almost too late for this area and would be more up your way into southern VA.

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KyloG said:
UK ensembles.

View attachment 22635
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If those tracks were of the GEFS or EPS, I'd be quite concerned. But with them being the left biased UK ens and with the mean being so far left of the GEFS/EPS, I'm not at all concerned from seeing these. Furthermore, actual is already running north of most of these members per another source.
 
SD said:
I guess after looking at the models I should clean up my statement about it's no longer left of track. It becomes LOT on the gfs and legacy but it's almost too late for this area and would be more up your way into southern VA.

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Oh yeah on the GFS it still is, I was just speaking of the Euro... honestly if memory serves, the GFS has done better in that regard then the Euro. Either I'm the one person on here who is sick of rain so I'm sure I'll figure out a way to pile on a few inches
 
Remains at 150 mph

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO SEBASTIAN INLET

205408_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Stormsfury said:
It's still steady state moving just N of due west. Forecast advisory out negligible changes with a sharper right turn near the SC after 96 hours.
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I agree, I just wonder about this screeching halt. It does happen sometimes, but its not very common.
 
I could be wrong but isn’t a strong hurricane like this one hard to bring to stop? And move north on a Dime? OTS will not surprise me though


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deltadog03 said:
I agree, I just wonder about this screeching halt. It does happen sometimes, but its not very common.
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We see it from time to time but this is one heavy loaded tropical cyclone and like trying to stop Niagara Falls from flowing.
What bothers me is the whole WAR is analyzed stronger than the initialization. We've seen these time and time again with the reluctant nature of these on model vs actual time and time again
 
Jessy89 said:
I could be wrong but isn’t a strong hurricane like this one hard to bring to stop? And move north on a Dime? OTS will not surprise me though


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It is subject to the steering currents in the atmosphere. When they collapse, even the big ones can stall. But they will likely lose strength as upwelling begins.
 
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