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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

SCWXGuy said:
What is with the TABS model constantly showing the loop over FL from run to run before OTS? ? Clearly not happening but seems it should be disabled
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Ignore it, it's a statistical model basically, I believe they serve some purpose for the winds (shear possibly?) but useless for track
 
There could absolutely be some shifts as we go forward, but there's a good consensus now across guidance in terms of the general track idea. Maybe they're all missing something. We'll see pretty soon.
 
Rain Cold said:
There could absolutely be some shifts as we go forward, but there's a good consensus now across guidance in terms of the general track idea. Maybe they're all missing something. We'll see pretty soon.
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Of course it could change but something I've seen over many years.... rarely does a winter threat that has trended NW come back SE and rarely does a TC that trends ots come back west.
 
Sandbar said:
After Matthew in 2016, these models aren't locked in on jack squat for NC / SC IMO. Too many variables that push and pull these things that pop up out of nowhere. You are still talking about a storm 5 days away. Impressive looking storm either way
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The realest thing I heard in forum all day.
 
F-5 said:
Mixed signals from the Euro. First 48 hrs seems to make LF more likely. The stop on a dime, 90 degree turn makes it less likely through the end of the run.

That stop, 90 degree turn is hard for me to believe. Too many variables have to line up just perfectly for that to happen. Seems a more NW drift closer to the FL coast would be more likely than the stall and pivot.
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Turning on a dime after a long quasi-stall is not that unusual. Doing that when moving fast is different.

Anyway, 12Z Euro trends are clearly encouraging. I don't think anyone could argue with that.
 
pcbjr said:
Almost time for everyone to take a 5 minute break ... catch a breath of fresh air ...
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Cant believe we may have 3 to 4 more days of hard model watching before we know the final outcome. This has been an exhausting storm to try and pin down.
 
Shaggy said:
Cant believe we may have 3 to 4 more days of hard model watching before we know the final outcome. This has been an exhausting storm to try and pin down.
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with 3 - 4 or maybe even 5, that's the "catch a breath of fresh air" Rx ... plus, Lord knows what we'll see tomorrow ... :oops:
 
Euro cut back on rain totals here but didn't really change the wind gust forecast and the track wasn't that different than 0z

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Euro cut back on rain totals here but didn't really change the wind gust forecast and the track wasn't that different than 0z

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
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Less interaction with trough? Getting away from the left of track precip maximum maybe

and breezy..

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