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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

KyloG said:
I think an earlier move N on the Euro while in the Bahamas could scare the SE coast. Though, Dorian sure has done a good job missing land...first Hispaniola, then PR then FL and now maybe NC/SC coast.
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Timing is key, 12 hrs one way or the other is the difference between a Floyd track thru NC or 100 miles off Hatteras....and c the chances the models have it all right in the 4-5 day range now is silly its gonna move around some we wont be sure till Monday or so, if the models all have it offshore then I will feel better about a miss.
 
I think everyone in the SC and NC need to prepare for Coast hugger due to friction. Also if tough slow down even a little bit game on. It’s always best to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I said not shifts east but was solely focused on NC, it has definitely trended more offshore from Fl, Ga and even SC...just takes more of a N path towards us before it turns.
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Am i wrong in thinking that if the euro didnt stall for so long in the Bahamas that the turn east would be further north because the ridge to his east wouldnt have broken down yet?

A faster Dorian gets north before it erodes?
 
Mixed signals from the Euro. First 48 hrs seems to make LF more likely. The stop on a dime, 90 degree turn makes it less likely through the end of the run.

That stop, 90 degree turn is hard for me to believe. Too many variables have to line up just perfectly for that to happen. Seems a more NW drift closer to the FL coast would be more likely than the stall and pivot.
 
the only thing missing here is a loop de loop that no model even suggests ... would fit right into this Warhol canvas ...
 
F-5 said:
Mixed signals from the Euro. First 48 hrs seems to make LF more likely. The stop on a dime, 90 degree turn makes it less likely through the end of the run.

That stop, 90 degree turn is hard for me to believe. Too many variables have to line up just perfectly for that to happen. Seems a more NW drift closer to the FL coast would be more likely than the stall and pivot.
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Oh it can happen. Remember dennis 1999?
 
F-5 said:
Mixed signals from the Euro. First 48 hrs seems to make LF more likely. The stop on a dime, 90 degree turn makes it less likely through the end of the run.

That stop, 90 degree turn is hard for me to believe. Too many variables have to line up just perfectly for that to happen. Seems a more NW drift closer to the FL coast would be more likely than the stall and pivot.
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To your point.......yep, Florence was gonna turn left and go to Charleston. We all know how that turned out.
 
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Let’s see who wins. Euro would destroy Grand Bahama and GFS would be bad but is just north.

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Honestly, I think now is the time frame to pay attention to Short range models such and NAM and also HWFI and HMON.
 
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Shaggy said:
Oh it can happen. Remember dennis 1999?
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I don't think the fact that it CAN happen is in question. It's how likely is it happen? The fact that it has been 20 years since Dennis kinds argues it doesn't happen very often. The slower drift towards the FL coast most other models are showing DOES happen quite frequently.
 
metwannabe said:
EPS is east of 0z and almost all members stay offshore, close call and gonna scare some folks but as of now offshore. I don't think it's coming back west, models seem locked in imho
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I don’t think we will any major jumps over 100mi. If we’re going to get a different solution It probably will be over gradual ticks.
 
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