BHS1975
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
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Henry2326
Member
Icon maintains cane status all the way up the coast.....
AS like that map a couple of posts before, climo and history tell us we more than likely have an US landfall-er. Doesn't guarantee one, but I bet there is a healthy debate inside NHC about being worried this rolls right onshore over FL
Henry2326
Member
And more than a smidge..
Edit....and eye still north of Bahamas....
954 in Jax back door.....that rhymes
Stormsfury
Member
Dang, if that's the case wonder if that is why the GFS is further west?
BHS1975
Member
Yeap ridge stronger just like a lot of other storms the last few years.
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Stormsfury
Member
They did...
Henry2326
Member
Garbage in, garbage out, my friend.
We have 2 more days of this crazy...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Ruh roh, one more 50 mile shift and it's honestly a pretty bad run for the eastern Florida coast.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Likely OTS but flirting with fire.
BHS1975
Member
Might get left behind. Much further from the trough now.
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That jet is nosing down, there's interaction and you can see precip breaking out in Cen NC in response... I bet we're about to see another left of track flood potential this run. If it doesn't get pulled inland as @Ollie Williams pointed out with the NAM a few post back
Thor
Member
Henry2326
Member
Take that version but start it slightly south, directly over Bahamas like Euro version. The coast scrapper comes back in play. Scary situation playing out...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Dorian this is just insulting:
High flooding impacts for the same areas that had major issues with Florence.
High flooding impacts for the same areas that had major issues with Florence.
Yep jet steak to the north, divergence expanding over the eastern half of NC , shortwave digging to the southwest of the system, weak front providing an inland focus. That's a good setup for a widespread 3-10 east of US1
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pcbjr
Member
actually would not be nice for the eastern third of the peninsula ...
Jessy89
Member
The thing to watch for is do the 0z models shift slightly west again. Every few miles is crucial
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Henry2326
Member
Carrying forward Kylo's list:
hits: CMC, GFS-L, ICON, HWRF, HMON, Navgem, UK
miss: Euro/GFS
hits: CMC, GFS-L, ICON, HWRF, HMON, Navgem, UK
miss: Euro/GFS