HR48 its def a bit south vs yesterdays 12z run...about the same speed, maybe slightly faster?
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Thank you! Notice how the models are starting to show that SW dive a little bit again in the short term. ITs def. south on todays run vs yesterdays 12z run so far.
Sits there for almost 12 hours, finally nudging NW @54.....slowly
Correction: It's just meandering still sitting there @60
Still stalled.... oh boy
GeorgiaGirl
Member
actually looks like a north turn at 72 to me (but slowly), want to see another frame before deciding on either side here...
edit: the opening for OTS is there though.
edit: the opening for OTS is there though.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Thinking OTS based off hr 96 and further east than yesterday's 12z and the previous 0z but we will see.
So the GFS suite said nah nvm and scooted closer to the coast, hurricane models shifted well west, but the EURO actually goes east so far.
So the GFS suite said nah nvm and scooted closer to the coast, hurricane models shifted well west, but the EURO actually goes east so far.
Honestly 12z Euro looks identical to 12z yesterday close to coast. I won’t call this no easy trend.
Downeastnc
Member
GFS and Euro 120 plot very close together.....
Looks to stay just offshore
And then ots.... for now the east trend has stopped, still offshore but no shifts east.
pcbjr
Member
confessing total confusion on this whole thing ... except one thing is for certain, this storm is not conducive to sleep and/or a rational thought process (invert them and you end up in the same place ... LOL) ... 
Would think good news for Florida and the way the Euro is trending hopefully GA/SC. Maybe OBX has to deal with it but it keeps ticking east. Only wrinkle I could see is if it starts ticking north sooner in the Bahamas instead of taking 48 hours to rot. But we won't know that until Monday/Tuesday.
Precip FWIW. But one consistent with modeling of Dorian is that day 4-5 model progs haven't verified.
I had a couple of friends fly up from Melbourne. They are super ticked to say the least.
I had a couple of friends fly up from Melbourne. They are super ticked to say the least.
Yeah I said not shifts east but was solely focused on NC, it has definitely trended more offshore from Fl, Ga and even SC...just takes more of a N path towards us before it turns.
Of course atm Dorian still chugging along, crossing 74W now....
Euro is furthest East at the 12z, which although is the ideal solution, seems reality may lie between the tight scrape of the GFS and the gracious miss of the Euro.
I think an earlier move N on the Euro while in the Bahamas could scare the SE coast. Though, Dorian sure has done a good job missing land...first Hispaniola, then PR then FL and now maybe NC/SC coast.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Might just be staying offshore, but still too close for comfort for FL to NC. Would not take much for it to hit somewhere if the models are too far east just a bit.