Hurricane Debby

[Stormsfury]

Tornado hit Moncks Corner in town just before 3am this morning.

0254 AM Tornado 2 ENE Moncks Corner 33.20N 79.98W
08/06/2024 Berkeley SC Emergency Mngr

Berkeley County EM reported a tornado on the eastern
side of Moncks Corner. An Applebees was damaged. Several
trees and power poles were blown down, some onto cars.
At least one car was flipped over. Significant damage to
an Arby`s was reported (windows shattered and parts of
the roof torn off). A truck was flipped over on its
side. A Walmart was damaged (front windows shattered and
lots of overturned shopping carts).

 

[Chrisgo]

Tropical storm Debby 06Z Model Track Guidance

 

[Chazwin]

6Z GFS still doing it’s own thing! View attachment 149538View attachment 149539View attachment 149540View attachment 149541

Actually looks like it took a step to the EURO… still tracking south and west of the 12z EURO but this is the first believable solution IMO the GFS has had in days. I still say that it is greatly under doing precip amounts for the mountains, as that track would set up a very moist southeast upslope flow.

 

[Chazwin]

It looks like the ICON is finally coming back to reality on strength. It only drops it to 981mb at landfall.

 

[Chrisgo]

It looks like the ICON is finally coming back to reality on strength. It only drops it to 981mb at landfall.

Looks a bit east on landfall

 

[BirdManDoomW]

It appears Savanah has been spared. Yes, the usual spots have flooded. Rivers will rise. But 6” and might* end up with 10” is a lot better than 20 to 30”! Power is on. Stall and being near the center means little to no rain for the mean time too. That being said, if we see a random thunderstorm over the next 7 days it will flood the city.

 

[Chrisgo]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024

TORNADO WATCH 603 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

NCC017-019-047-129-141-062100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0603.240806T1055Z-240806T2100Z/

NC
. NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS
NEW HANOVER PENDER
$$

 

[Chrisgo]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 AM EDT TUE AUG 6 2024

TORNADO WATCH 603 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

SCC015-019-035-041-043-051-067-089-062100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0603.240806T1055Z-240806T2100Z/

SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKELEY CHARLESTON DORCHESTER
FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY
MARION WILLIAMSBURG
$$

 

[Downeastnc]

Those bands over the water starting to blow up as the center moves offshore, will be interesting to see how much if any Debby can reorganize. Velocity scans suggest plenty of rotations as well so tornados will be numerous unfortunately.

 

[StoneColdHeel]

The 6z RDPS:

View attachment 149537

Looks I am in the bullseye with 20 inches.

 

[KyloG]

Precip maps this extreme are almost always right...

 

[FallsLake]

Precip maps this extreme are almost always right...View attachment 149546

Haha..I wonder how Crabtree Creek would handle that...

 

[Avalanche]

These rain outputs look like the Candy Land DGEX snow outputs.

Has to be a more realistic map somehow!!

 

[Avalanche]

Haha..I wonder how Crabtree Creek would handle that...

We be swimming over Crabtree Mall.

 

[FallsLake]

These rain outputs look like the Candy Land DGEX snow outputs.

Has to be a more realistic map somehow!!

There's really no way to know with a tropical system. I guess the very high outputs are possible, but they're not probable. I kind of liked WRAL's forecast:

Can't get too specific at this time..

 

[Rain Cold]

Haha..I wonder how Crabtree Creek would handle that...

NAMs are coming in hot too. Still raining on the 3k. Never been under a High Risk for flooding before. On the other end of the spectrum, the GFS is much more subdued.

 

[Avalanche]

There's really no way to know with a tropical system. I guess the very high outputs are possible, but they're not probable. I kind of liked WRAL's forecast:
View attachment 149547
Can't get too specific at this time..

5 to 10 sounds better than the 13-18 from the other outputs and is the more likely outcome.

 

[FallsLake]

5 to 10 sounds better than the 13-18 from the other outputs and is the more likely outcome.

And 5-10" is still a lot of rain. Crabtree Creek wouldn't like as well.

 

[Tarheel1]

Precip maps this extreme are almost always right...View attachment 149546

They worked for the DGEX

 

[iGRXY]

Crazy totals on the national blended models.