Those maps are almost always over done. Winds will not be an issue, especially inland
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Hurricane Debby
- Thread starter Brent
- Start date
Chrisgo
Member
and I would assume something moving as slow as this seems to be moving would dissipate them even more
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Wow that’s a big jump west at this lead time. Wonder what caused all of the models at 18Z to do that?
Chrisgo
Member
Attachments
snowc
Member
Wait, what? Now this means the track is shifting toward Charlotte?
weatherfide
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 3,231
- Reaction score
- 4,851
Those showers are moving west southwest and will not likely move much further north as the entire system is slowly moving off to the east northeast. Atlanta should stay fairly dry as well as many points west and southwest of the city. Some light rain accumulations between McDonough and Macon appear possible.
IMO they’re really just starting to zero in on the EURO’s idea the last couple days of a landfall near or just south of Myrtle Beach. The big change on this is what happens after landfall and how soon it makes a north and eventual northeast turn. Many of those plots keep a NW or even WNW motion longer. The UKMET for instance now brings the center back to CLT before making the turn. I haven’t seen any of the 12z EURO because it’s not up on TT yet, but it will be interesting to see if it follows the UKMET on that idea. If it does then that set the stage for extreme rainfall totals all the back to the mountains
Right. You can even look at the current obs across inland southern GA and FL, winds are generally gusting in the 30s with a few gusts to around 40 scattered here and there. Power outage numbers are surprisingly high though, so that is interesting
iGRXY
Member
Was about to say the same thing. If you get that track which is what I've been calling for which is Charleston to Camden to Monroe (that's actually a lot of more westerly solutions) we will get bigger rains back this way. If you get this to pass by Charlotte we definitely will.
I have a cousin that lives in Valdosta and she has been without power since late yesterday evening. The highest wind gust they’ve had has been 48mph but she says it’s been a steady wind since yesterday evening. I’m guessing the ground is very saturated which means the winds don’t have to be too high to start knocking down trees….something to keep in mind for the eastern Carolinas later this week
weather bubba
Member
The 5:00 PM advisory from the National Weather Service will be interesting. I wonder if they will buy into the shift westward that the 18Z model runs are showing.
iGRXY
Member
Take it for what its worth but the UKIE and Euro AI are showing a swath of 2-5" and follow the most recent spaghetti models of landfall between Charleston and Myrtle beach and track WNW. Combine that with the stalled front and some higher than expected totals start to make sense. Highest will be Newberry to Union to Gaffney east where I think 4-7" is likely.
lexxnchloe
Member
If it goes in that far south and heads that far west as the 18Z models show then i dont think wind will be an issue in SE NC
Euro is garden city beach to dillon to sanford to maybe south hill
And just a psa for everyone it starts running on pivotal around 130-145
JHS
Member
Yeah, the Euro AI dumps over all but the far western parts of both states and if the center comes back to I-77, the upslope area of the NC foothills may have a problem. The regular Euro keeps the rain mostly east of 321, but a small shift would change things.
Was wondering if this was due to front interaction on the front side of the storm.
Chrisgo
Member
