Hurricane Debby

[SD]

The 5:00 PM advisory from the National Weather Service will be interesting. I wonder if they will buy into the shift westward that the 18Z model runs are showing.

I doubt they make any big changes. The factors that really push and pull this to the east then west track are still over the upper Midwest, canada, and out near bermuda. The only good thing about the slow motion is there's some time to adjust to a dramatic shift

 

[NCSNOW]

Thats najor river flooding Pee Dee and Cape Fear River Basins that will come down to already Flooded NE SC and SE NC. Per 12z Ukie,if verefied

 

[lexxnchloe]

Thanks. For some reason the EURO has been lagging behind on TT the last couple days.

 

[Chazwin]

View attachment 149501

Just looking at it myself. Not as far back west as the UKMET but a tick back to the west. It really seems to be holding firm on a landfall just south of Myrtle Beach

 

[Downeastnc]

Was just looking at the vis loop and thinking her overall appearance has improved since landfall...

 

[severestorm]

 

[chuckhendo]

Was just looking at the vis loop and thinking her overall appearance has improved since landfall...

It's actually not looking too shabby on radar either considering how long it's been over land

 

[Tarheel1]

Dr Knab onTWC just said isolated spots in SC, WILL see 20-30” of rain!

 

[BirdManDoomW]

It’s bad here in Chatham. Tornado sirens are out but can’t chase anything due to flooding and can’t see anything

 

[Carolina Jones]

Tornado warning out for Savanah.

 

[Henry2326]

Hmmmm....this is not a good change.

5:00 discussion.....

The tropical cyclone should continue to weaken while it moves over
land for the next day or so. By late Tuesday, assuming the center
of the system moves back over water, some re-intensification is
forecast. The NHC forecast continues to show only modest
restrengthening due to the uncertainties, although this may be
conservative.

 

[iGRXY]

Already getting some feeder showers coming through here

 

[Carolina Jones]

Wonder if we will have to worry about tornadoes up here when she gets closer.

 

[Chazwin]

At hour 63, the ICON has bended back to the NW and is about to make landfall near Murrel’s Inlet/Garden City. Basically where the UKMET and EURO were. It’s still dropping pressure down to 965mb which just seems way too low.

 

[SD]

Wonder if we will have to worry about tornadoes up here when she gets closer.

Yes

 

[JHS]

At hour 63, the ICON has bended back to the NW and is about to make landfall near Murrel’s Inlet/Garden City. Basically where the UKMET and EURO were. It’s still dropping pressure down to 965mb which just seems way too low.

Also, the Euro AI is not backing down at all and has the center all the way back to Chester County in SC at hour 84.

 

[Chazwin]

Also, the Euro AI is not backing down at all and has the center all the way back to Chester County in SC at hour 84.

The ICON through hour 90 basically ended up following the 12z EURO so it’s another tick west after landfall. Just out of curiosity, how low does the EURO AI drop the pressure to?

 

[JHS]

The ICON has come west about 30-40 miles in NC and is slower.

 

[JHS]

The ICON through hour 90 basically ended up following the 12z EURO so it’s another tick west after landfall. Just out of curiosity, how low does the EURO AI drop the pressure to?

992 it looks like.

 

[Chazwin]

The ICON has come west about 30-40 miles in NC and is slower.

It’s easy to see why these models are ticking back west with the inland track…they’re centering a high pressure just off the New England coast.