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Pattern Hotober

NoSnowATL said:
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I knew I’d seen that map somewhere before. @Rain Cold ’s 2019/2020 call map ? ? we’re not worthy
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GaWx said:
I assume you're not being serious, but in case you are I think that's much too warm in the SE as that is similar to last year's winter. The SER is still in play, but I'd cool it by 2-3 in the SE.
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Really? How so?
 
snowcool776 said:
Really? How so?
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The warmest eq Pacific SST anomalies are slightly further east this year (near Dateline vs Indonesia). Also, that would be another very warm winter. The odds are that it won't be that warm again, especailly if we get another weak Nino. That was by a good margin the warmest El Nino on record for the SE. Another thing is that I don't think the Atlantic is quite as warm this year.
 
GaWx said:
The warmest eq Pacific SST anomalies are slightly further east this year (near Dateline vs Indonesia). Also, that would be another very warm winter. The odds are that it won't be that warm again, especailly if we get another weak Nino. That was by a good margin the warmest El Nino on record for the SE. Another thing is that I don't think the Atlantic is quite as warm this year.
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Oh okay. So that means we will not have a cold winter?
 
GFS remains frigid around Halloween. Afternoon highs in the 40s in most of NC, 50s/60s for SC/GA/AL/MS. Even @pcbjr struggles to 75. As for morning lows on 11/1, looky here
gfs_T2m_seus_36.png

Let's hope. Also, towards the end of the 12z run of ICON, it did show a similar cold push.

Outside of that, GFS agrees on an AN start to next week, followed by the Halloween cold plunge. Rain-wise, looking pretty good through hr240
gfs_apcpn_seus_40.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
GFS remains frigid around Halloween. Afternoon highs in the 40s in most of NC, 50s/60s for SC/GA/AL/MS. Even @pcbjr struggles to 75. As for morning lows on 11/1, looky here
gfs_T2m_seus_36.png

Let's hope. Also, towards the end of the 12z run of ICON, it did show a similar cold push.

Outside of that, GFS agrees on an AN start to next week, followed by the Halloween cold plunge. Rain-wise, looking pretty good through hr240
gfs_apcpn_seus_40.png
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CPC is on board with approaching BN temps, but still slower than GFS/GEFS
814temp.new.gif

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

Interesting comparison here. Top is CPC 8-14 day temp outlook, bottom is the morning of 11/1 temp anomalies from EPS. Pretty similar, wouldn't y'all agree?

Also, 12z GEFS is faster with the cold just like its op run.
 
Sleet City USA said:
CPC is on board with approaching BN temps, but still slower than GFS/GEFS
814temp.new.gif

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_10.png

Interesting comparison here. Top is CPC 8-14 day temp outlook, bottom is the morning of 11/1 temp anomalies from EPS. Pretty similar, wouldn't y'all agree?

Also, 12z GEFS is faster with the cold just like its op run.
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Carolinas looking toasty! That cold will take 2-3 extra days to get over the mountains, if at all
 
I'm scared the Euro actually has some snow flurries just to my north on Wednesday.

This Halloween front is looking ridiculous this run, maybe close to record breaking here the coldest Halloween ever had a high of 43 and its close this run
 
GFS is still cold for Halloween. The euro is still warm, but the Canadian has jumped boat and has joined the GFS. It's 30 degrees colder across the SE; compared from 12z yesterday to 0z last night. Lots of 40s at mid day.
 
36.2 and again some light scattered frost around. Grass will still needing cutting one more time though, dang it.
 
@metwannabe On October 31, can I start the monthly thread? I haven't even made a thread, and this looks like a success to have these monthly threads?
 
What a great way to end the month, +8 to +10F departures. No way we see these + departures the next 4 months. :oops:

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Who cares who starts it, it’s not going to snow in the SE this November ( maybe mountains). We should start to get fantasy storms late in the month to keep us entertained.


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