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Pattern Hotober

The GFS from hour 222 and beyond so far is tolerable even if you want to factor in a cold bias.

Please, please be right. Please.
 
I'd just like some average temps in this horrible pattern lol we're having an average August this month :rolleyes:

clearly we don't get fronts like we used to but come on
 
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LOL...can't help but laugh. First week of October and mid-90's across the board. 7am temps is in the 70's. It was cooler in July.

This is probably wrong, I would imagine the EPS will be much cooler and closer to the GEFS than it's Op run.

9-km ECMWF USA Daily Hi_Lo Southeast US 2-m Daily High T 240.png9-km ECMWF USA Cities Southeast US 2-m Temperature 240.png
 
I would say I don't believe the Euro because based off of time of year, upper 80s to low 90s would simply make more sense then even if the ridge doesn't go away.

But there might be precedence...okay nevermind I looked and even the infamous 2007 where it actually was a horror show in August was the same as what I said.
 
I think the MJO and indices are overblown in my opinion. They are a general roadmap but we always seem to get looks especially in recent years that don’t seem to fit. It’s not staying in the 90’s uninterrupted into mid October no matter what the MJO says.


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Short answer: It's likely wrong. Those temps won't verify, I'll bet my house.

I agree would have to agree. Temps have already verified cooler this week then what model runs showed last week, at least where I am.
 
I think kylo and a few others would attest that the mjo being in the phases that promote warm weather for this time of year has alot to do with it imo. A transient cold front shouldn't be ruled out. I wouldn't mind it staying warm as long as possible and then maybe lock in a cold pattern through march.
 
EPS obviously consistent with prior runs and GEFS with cooldown day 10+.

Edit: Cool down is a stretch...temps are still slightly AN, but will take it.

2m_temperature_min_SECONUS_hr240.png2m_temperature_min_SECONUS_hr264.png
 
I can't understand how it could possibly be that warm with that short of daylight hours, truly mindboggling.

We had 3 days in the row of temps around 90*F back in 2007 in Detroit.

So I'm sure it's not all that difficult at this latitude, especially with severe drought conditions.
 
I forgot whether I posted it or not but the AAM being in a overly negative state only helps out the SER at this time of the year, that combined with Nina-ish conditions and MJO in phases supportive of warmth ain’t helping either, -PNA is helping to pump the Southeast ridge in a way to which it just further increases heights and strength of the ridge, I still think the GFS is onto something.... Becuase I’m bout damn tired of this heat
 
The euro is as much as 15 degrees hotter than the eps mean in many locations at d10 and it's hotter than the hottest eps member. The euro has been way too warm and ridgy in the d7-10 period all summer. Either the model is seeing something that even it's own ensemble members aren't seeing or it's wrong

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well at least over here the NWS seems hopeful for a change

in the AFD this afternoon: Either way, we should finally experience some relief from
the heat as we move through the first week of October.
 
well at least over here the NWS seems hopeful for a change

in the AFD this afternoon: Either way, we should finally experience some relief from
the heat as we move through the first week of October.
Yup, GSP mentioned it as well
"As alluded to in the beginning of the discussion, a pattern change may
be in the making for the middle part of next week as the strong
trough will slowly push east, gradually weakening the ridge
overhead. This may make way for the first true cold front passage of
the fall sometime late next week."
 
Knock down those temps by 5-7 degrees, as shown on the EURO and it will be close, but unfortunately I think it has the overall pattern right and the GFS is jumping on the trough coming East too soon. It will eventually do that but probably after 20 days or so, maybe a little more.
 
18z run of the GFS takes a little longer to get going cold front-wise for the lower portions of the southeast (NC gets BN temps by Friday afternoon, takes till Saturday for BN temps for rest of SE. Wouldn't this be nice
gfs_T2m_seus_41.png

gfs_T2m_seus_44.png
 
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haha...just noticed on this run that there has been ridging in the central US after all (as I checked 12z), so the heat gets concentrated over in the south-central US, maybe.
 
I don’t understand all the Euro love, it’s been the inferior model the last few years
 
The euro is as much as 15 degrees hotter than the eps mean in many locations at d10 and it's hotter than the hottest eps member. The euro has been way too warm and ridgy in the d7-10 period all summer. Either the model is seeing something that even it's own ensemble members aren't seeing or it's wrong

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I wouldn’t bet against those extreme temps the Euro OP is showing. With the ridge overhead and soil moisture nonexistent over the southeast, temps in the low to mid 90’s wouldn’t surprise me at all until both break.
 
Hmmmm, 6z GFS run pushes arrival of cold back a bit, with cold pushing into Carolinas on Saturday afternoon, then most of the SE overnight. Euro has a CAD-ish setup that weekend
 
Sure enough, since the strong hurricanes haven't been close to buff the ridge, a strong trough would be enough to move this horrible heat and break it up at least to some degree. At least the end is nearing.
 
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