Pattern Hotober

[KyloG]

Cold bias or not, the GEFS is doubling down on the blocking. Probably was to fast swinging that trough through and thus it probably is warmer than previous runs.

 

[KyloG]

GEFS ain't messing around.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS ain't messing around.

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Worth a drive to the mountains with that type of pattern

 

[Arcc]

Yea gfs shows this, warm core trying to hold but there some CAA at the northwest/west side of the system so it’s not 100% tropical although it’s sorta close, with that area of CAA it would only reinforce that cooler dome View attachment 24503

Looking a little deeper, this will be quite an interesting look. Insane wind fields on the warm front of this sub-tropical storm with lots of turning with height thanks to it being not stacked. The panhandle along with southern AL/GA will have to watch out for an elevated risk from tornadoes more so than from fully tropical systems.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looking a little deeper, this will be quite an interesting look. Insane wind fields on the warm front of this sub-tropical storm with lots of turning with height thanks to it being not stacked. The panhandle along with southern AL/GA will have to watch out for an elevated risk from tornadoes more so than from fully tropical systems.

Yeah soundings ain’t bad with this one, seen some soundings where winds are nearly backing from the SE only aiding in 0-1km SRH

 

[Tarheel1]

So how’s the track of the gulf entity on today’s runs? Still shifting East?

 

[Tarheel1]

I was incorrect on last nights rain, my apologies! Actually.69 in the bucket!??

 

[NoSnowATL]

So how’s the track of the gulf entity on today’s runs? Still shifting East?

You and I will be on the dry side! SHOCKER!!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I was incorrect on last nights rain, my apologies! Actually.69 in the bucket!??

Yeah. We got rained out. Ground was too wet to dig. I’ve been home scratching my ass all day

 

[Tarheel1]

You and I will be on the dry side! SHOCKER!!

By tomorrow, CAE will be on the fringe!

 

[Brent]

65 and sunny absolutely stunning weather

 

[deltadog03]

Looking a little deeper, this will be quite an interesting look. Insane wind fields on the warm front of this sub-tropical storm with lots of turning with height thanks to it being not stacked. The panhandle along with southern AL/GA will have to watch out for an elevated risk from tornadoes more so than from fully tropical systems.

I could see that being an issue potentially as well

 

[Tarheel1]

Cold is crashing in! It’s currently 73

 

[jackendrickwx]

Cold is crashing in! It’s currently 73

Clouds must have hung around longer here. 66F sunny

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS has the low going over SAV! What anothe fail! By 12z tomorrow, I won’t even get showers!?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

GEFS ain't messing around.

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Ughh....why can't we get this pattern in winter? Would be perfect for January. The first panel is a classic look for a SE snowstorm if it was in late December through early March.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Ughh....why can't we get this pattern in winter? Would be perfect for January. The first panel is a classic look for a SE snowstorm if it was in late December through early March.

And if this does happen now, probably means we won't see it in January or February in the heart of winter.

 

[KyloG]

Pretty funny...last year, the last 10 days of October with nearly identical modeled pattern.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Pretty funny...last year, the last 10 days of October with nearly identical modeled pattern.

View attachment 24522View attachment 24523

Major difference being that the ridge is actually over greenland, and the trough more SW.

 

[CyclonicFury]

Has any major city outside of the mountains in the Southeast (Virginia and Kentucky not included) ever reported measurable snowfall in October? RDU never has, and I doubt ATL or GSP has either.