I mean do you think it has any merit to it?
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Pattern Hotober
- Thread starter NorthDFWwx
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
CAD with a tropical system moving through. Believe it or not, I believe it. Irma was able to bring the temps down quite a bit as she passed through, so a low would have the same effect. Not to mention it's a low as well.Good lord GFS, get a grip
So what you're saying is we need a stronger low to bring temps down more?
Fountainguy97
Member
yes. Stronger the low. The colder the temps can be. But it’s October and the air mass isn’t super cold. Would be hard to “manufacture” enough cold air from the storm to produce frozen precip.
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Oh i'm not looking for wintry precip. just colder temps
Doesn’t really look fully tropical as well which would lead to a colder side.
Brent
Member
its gonna be a longggg winter
Fountainguy97
Member
Cold front just pushed through here. Nice little showers and gusty winds. Temp down 5 to 55. Going to be an amazing couple of days!
high tmw is 56!
high tmw is 56!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
That "cold snap" that was around the edges of funny land getting axed is just funny to me. The next week or so still seems to be holding (so it'd mean the first shot of cooler air next week is correct) and you can't take away the next two days at all. To add to that, if the tropical system does track over the interior southeast, it's going to be frigid feeling.
Vague agreement from the 12k NAM
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Garbage in, garbage out. We get one cold bias away and here we see more snow in fantasyland.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
CMC also has the in-situ CAD but it's west (which will show we need to sort out where the tropical system goes).
ICON has it too.
I'll check the Euro from last night in a few.
Edit: It has it but it's only south?
ICON has it too.
I'll check the Euro from last night in a few.
Edit: It has it but it's only south?
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BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Sandy had this effect in nearly perfect conditions to produce heavy snow. Some spots along the border of NC/TN received 3ft of snow in Oct/Nov.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I totally think the CAD is possible, maybe not to the extent shown but if we get the tropical system to track the way shown I absolutely can see widespread 50s and 60s under the areas that have the rain and clouds. I've seen plenty of busts on the temp forecasts with CAD before. Not saying it'll be the same, just that it's happened.
On another note, the Euro looked incredible for really all of next week after Monday on the free stuff I saw in weather.us. It had the early week shot and I guess it sticks the whole way.
It'll be a shame if the late week cooler weather just gets dropped entirely.
On another note, the Euro looked incredible for really all of next week after Monday on the free stuff I saw in weather.us. It had the early week shot and I guess it sticks the whole way.
It'll be a shame if the late week cooler weather just gets dropped entirely.
GFS Miller Bs the tropical system. Awesome.
Yep, on it’s N/NW quadrant of the low it can sort of pull in lower dews at lower levels which means some dynamical cooling which translates to cooler surface temps hence a in-situ CAD since a high to the NE is gone by then
Yea gfs shows this, warm core trying to hold but there some CAA at the northwest/west side of the system so it’s not 100% tropical although it’s sorta close, with that area of CAA it would only reinforce that cooler dome
