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Pattern Hotober

Lol at the GFS! 53/30 in Tallahassee 47/29 in Raleigh and 40/25 dumping snow in Nashville... oh but DC is 50/33 and it gets warmer further north. On Halloween!

Am I the only one who remembers the non-stop absurd hour 384 runs on the Fv3 from January till March? where some runs brought -30 temps to central va and sub zero highs to nashville? Its going to be a long winter, the GFS is trash.
 
Lickwx said:
Lol at the GFS! 53/30 in Tallahassee 47/29 in Raleigh and 40/25 dumping snow in Nashville... oh but DC is 50/33 and it gets warmer further north. On Halloween!

Am I the only one who remembers the non-stop absurd hour 384 runs on the Fv3 from January till March? where some runs brought -30 temps to central va and sub zero highs to nashville? Its going to be a long winter, the GFS is trash.
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Glad to see it is in mid-season form this early. Hasn't seen a deep eastern digital trough it doesn't like in the colder months.
 
GFS and ICON both have this blob of 50s. Let's see how horribly wrong they'll be
gfs_T2m_seus_13.png
 
This area received beneficial old-fashioned garden variety steady rains from ~10 PM last night through ~7 AM this morning. There was also additional rain late this morning. This all added up to ~2"! After a horribly dry couple of months, October has been surprisingly wet, mainly from this as well as the ~1.5" from 10/5. Hopefully many others will get in on good rains this weekend!

Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to the very best wx in terms of comfort since spring the next 2 days! I hope to be able to walk outside,
 
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Lickwx said:
Lol at the GFS! 53/30 in Tallahassee 47/29 in Raleigh and 40/25 dumping snow in Nashville... oh but DC is 50/33 and it gets warmer further north. On Halloween!

Am I the only one who remembers the non-stop absurd hour 384 runs on the Fv3 from January till March? where some runs brought -30 temps to central va and sub zero highs to nashville? Its going to be a long winter, the GFS is trash.
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If all of the FV3 clown maps verified last winter most of us would have had a record shattering winter of snowfall.
 
First good blow of the fall season and acorns are pounding my roof like I have not heard in the 12 years I have been at this home. Don't go sideways with this question but are there any wives tales about monster acorns and winter weather:D
 
So, I'll be heading up to the Dayton/Spring City, TN area the first weekend of November. Is it looking like I should expect highs in the 30s-40s, lows down below freezing up there at this point? I know it's still some time to go, and this maybe should be for the Whamby thread or a November thread. At least, what kind of weather does east TN typically see around that time frame?
 
Will Rossman said:
So, I'll be heading up to the Dayton/Spring City, TN area the first weekend of November. Is it looking like I should expect highs in the 30s-40s, lows down below freezing up there at this point? I know it's still some time to go, and this maybe should be for the Whamby thread or a November thread. At least, what kind of weather does east TN typically see around that time frame?
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Highs in the 30s and 40s in Dayton, TN in early Nov would be pretty rare. I would think the avg high there in Early Nov would be in the 60s.
 
Snow is flying not too far from me. Burkes Garden, Virginia has snow showers. I assume Beech Mountain, NC will see some. Accumulations likely limited to WV where some is already on the grassy areas.
 
Will Rossman said:
So, I'll be heading up to the Dayton/Spring City, TN area the first weekend of November. Is it looking like I should expect highs in the 30s-40s, lows down below freezing up there at this point? I know it's still some time to go, and this maybe should be for the Whamby thread or a November thread. At least, what kind of weather does east TN typically see around that time frame?
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Average highs 66-68 during that time frame i imagine and average lows 44-46 .
 
Will Rossman said:
So, I'll be heading up to the Dayton/Spring City, TN area the first weekend of November. Is it looking like I should expect highs in the 30s-40s, lows down below freezing up there at this point? I know it's still some time to go, and this maybe should be for the Whamby thread or a November thread. At least, what kind of weather does east TN typically see around that time frame?
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Best bet is 50s or 60s for highs.. Youll get cooler nights out there than Chattanooga's forecast, since you'll be well away from uhi.
 
Will Rossman said:
So, I'll be heading up to the Dayton/Spring City, TN area the first weekend of November. Is it looking like I should expect highs in the 30s-40s, lows down below freezing up there at this point? I know it's still some time to go, and this maybe should be for the Whamby thread or a November thread. At least, what kind of weather does east TN typically see around that time frame?
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Looks like the average for that area is 60/35-38 for November, but idk what it'd be in the first week (probably a touch warmer).

That's your best guess for now, some have talked about how there might be a cold shot near the end of October with us entering November colder than normal but that's long range talk. I know one thing, at least right now I wouldn't be ready for typical weather there (especially for the evenings) because the in-situ CAD from that possible tropical-subtropical storm in Georgia that's been showing up has my eyebrows raised (even though it's going to require figuring out the track).
 
This will be fascinating to watch play out. I would even say the Euro sort of agrees but not really to the extent of what's been showing up on all the other models:

1571283138048.png
 
All of a sudden TWC on board with the sub 60 high here Saturday. NWS says 67 still. Interesting to see how this plays out
 
43 when I left at 630. May have dropped off another degree or 2. Regardless its the coldest morning of the season

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
43 when I left at 630. May have dropped off another degree or 2. Regardless its the coldest morning of the season

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
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There was definitely a different feel in the air today, a little chill, crisp, refreshing
 
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