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Pattern Hotober

Down to 54 already, if we can avoid clouds it might be the coldest night so far

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If you avoid clouds, like I can rain, your good to go! Sat it looked like I was going to get 2-3”, now, if you believe the GFS, I don’t get that much in the next 15 days! 18z6FB106EA-4BE4-416C-A58C-D9ABF6F27025.png
 
Getting the same thing several runs in a row. Could it be the first mountain shot? Or am I just falling victim to the classic GFS trap in a new disguise?
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_46.png

This was October 29th, 2017 in Madison County, NC.

Definitely in that window.

2626760A-667E-4F4A-85A4-86FDF470DECA.jpeg
 
I'm thinking upper 30s here so maybe low 30s for you

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Yeah you're probably right. Have you noticed how, even with it's cold bias, how horrible the GFS is on good raditional cooling nights? It tends to be several degrees too warm usually
 
I'm thinking upper 30s here so maybe low 30s for you

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If the dew point was a few more degrees colder we would be talking frost potential. I guess we still might for those "typically colder" locations. LR GFS does have dew points dropping into the 20s at the end of the month. That could be our focus point for the first widespread frost/freeze. And of course potentially give me a win for the first freeze for some locations. :cool:
 
This big wet, has materialized as the big dud! This is just sad5E51B776-33B7-47FF-A24E-FDADD9798887.pngDACB8033-E376-4B9A-883F-BC39D906F460.png
 
Honestly there's not much at all from current radar trends to even have me at 70% for rain. 50% maybe as there's still scattered showers north of the main shield, but not 70%. I thought that the radar would tell me to get out as soon as I could for exercise, but it's really not telling me that (I might still go anyway, I'm not sure).

Unless you see some real filling in north, the main areas that are really going to see rain are from Columbus to just south of Macon to about Statesboro.

GFS scored a bit of a win here in a not so great trend as all of us could've used the rain.
 
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