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Pattern Hotober

ITP Atlanta looking to cash in on a few hours of light to moderate rain. Better than nothing.


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We are nudging, ever so slightly, towards something ... and Folks, a nudge at this time of year is the precise recipe ... don't spend the whole wad of cash on a "great" 3 days in late October or early November only to wish we had a paycheck in January ... store the nuts and crack them out when it counts ... in 8 weeks and moving forward or so ... for now, enjoy the nudge ...


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We are nudging, ever so slightly, towards something ... and Folks, a nudge at this time of year is the precise recipe ... don't spend the whole wad of cash on a "great" 3 days in late October or early November only to wish we had a paycheck in January ... store the nuts and crack them out when it counts ... in 8 weeks and moving forward or so ... for now, enjoy the nudge ...


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So refreshing to see BN forecasts in the south. I mean how long has it been?
 
I think people would agree with me in that we dont want all this colder weather so early. Also, i read that a colder oct and November can lead to a real warm start to winter, at the very least. Something about the wavelengths. It was cold all the way up to the beginning of December and then it switched last winter. We want to see the most favorable setup and whatever it takes to get that.
 
I think people would agree with me in that we dont want all this colder weather so early. Also, i read that a colder oct and November can lead to a real warm start to winter, at the very least. Something about the wavelengths. It was cold all the way up to the beginning of December and then it switched last winter. We want to see the most favorable setup and whatever it takes to get that.
that is pretty much spot on, with of course a couple exceptions, which is, of course, always the rule ... but who wants to bank on an exception given recent history?
 
I think people would agree with me in that we dont want all this colder weather so early. Also, i read that a colder oct and November can lead to a real warm start to winter, at the very least. Something about the wavelengths. It was cold all the way up to the beginning of December and then it switched last winter. We want to see the most favorable setup and whatever it takes to get that.
Yeah everybody gets excited about super cold in October and be like “ if October is this cold, then winter’s going to be a blockbuster “ !
then it fails every.single.Time! We get to March and still looking for snow!
 
Future radar/rpm model looks lit tonight! Lots of heavier rain from about 5-8 AM! Wondering why Euro/Gfs have less than .20 for a lot of the upstate!?
 
Shove that SER out of the way and that's a great look. Euro has a strong cold front coming in at the end of the run
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png
Too bad we can’t get a ridge to stretch to the pole on the west coast ??‍♂️
 
Interesting seeing both GEFS and EPS model a fairly solid cold pattern to end October. Matches up with a-nino climo.

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Future radar/rpm model looks lit tonight! Lots of heavier rain from about 5-8 AM! Wondering why Euro/Gfs have less than .20 for a lot of the upstate!?

Well because the Euro and GFS are lousy at this time frame. This is a nowcast type event anyhow.


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Because the Euro ain't what it used to be! Get used to hearing that a lot this winter when Dr No says No!!
Yeah, a few days ago, Dr No had 3-5” of rain, through the heart of ATL and the N side also , this went into GSP area also! New that was a no!
 
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