NWS forecast may bust low. 70F right now, still saying we'll top out at 81
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Pattern Hotober
- Thread starter NorthDFWwx
- Start date
Inside 300hr ??
and since there isn’t much else to talk about, place your bets
and since there isn’t much else to talk about, place your bets tennessee storm
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Place your bets? On what ... that it won’t snow.... I take it lolInside 300hr ??
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GeorgiaGirl
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Widespread 40s and 50s in late October as the noon temp for Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, you see that'd actually make sense as it has happened before, and probably quite a few times recently but its at nearly 300 hours.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Why don’t we see if we can reel in a 24 hour out rain ( drizzle) eventInside 300hr ??
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Forgot to post this one yesterday
NoSnowATL
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Looks like the rain keep move south. Waiting on the NW trend.
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I would say if this wave remain suppressed it could be a show of things to come for the winter? Maybe a season where a suppressed flow is more important than a NW trend a last minute.
Ended up with 1.77 2 of my 3 biggest rains since may have occurred after 9/1. Tomorrow night into Wednesday has sneaky potential to verify higher than we are seeing on the models.
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It may be getting talked about in the topics thread but watch the gulf this week for some type of hybrid or disorganized system to develop and bring another decent rain event to the region
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pcbjr
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Baby steps if not a crawl, but that's fine if they baby step or crawl into December, January and February ... and just sit on the floor and don't move then ... 
GeorgiaGirl
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Maybe the update actually fixed what was the FV3's problem with being too suppressed compared to other suites but did not get the cold bias (which will kind of be important). As I was talking about the wiggle room (and remembered what the Euro had which was further north) and instead its trending south.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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.18 yesterday!
the NAM has me at .18 for the big event Tuesday/Wednesday, the Euro .13, that’s how you beat drought! ????????
the NAM has me at .18 for the big event Tuesday/Wednesday, the Euro .13, that’s how you beat drought! ????????
My yard is wet and the ground at work was noticeably moisterer (spelling) today. I’ll take it! Getting the atmosphere ready, healed, and prepared for a blockbuster winter!!
NWMSGuy
Member
Hmmm severe weather?
Looking forward to it
Was exactly what I was about to say, and I’m honestly thinking about making a thread on it , that wind field with that upcoming system can’t be ignored, looks a little bit on the HSLC side although I don’t like that wind field and large amounts of low level moisture, which was all that was needed for the lee county AL tornado, gotta remember it developed in only 250-500 jkg of cape, soundings that day were deeply moist, Supercell composites aren’t to impressive however For this one
Like a fart in the wind the big rain event has fizzled out. Congrats Atlanta to Columbia.
What's up with that little corridor of 50s in the W Carolinas? happy hour gfs having a good time
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Getting the same thing several runs in a row. Could it be the first mountain shot? Or am I just falling victim to the classic GFS trap in a new disguise?
Down to 54 already, if we can avoid clouds it might be the coldest night so far
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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BlueRidgeFolklore
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Getting the same thing several runs in a row. Could it be the first mountain shot? Or am I just falling victim to the classic GFS trap in a new disguise?
This was October 29th, 2017 in Madison County, NC.
Definitely in that window.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GEFS and EPS seem to agree on the trough setting up and staying in place toward the later part of the month in the East. Here comes the cold weather.
I'm thinking upper 30s here so maybe low 30s for you
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ForsythSnow
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Too bad we can't get this in 2 months.
Fountainguy97
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37.6 here! Feeling crispy!
went straight from summer to winter. Abt 10-14 days of fall this year. I look to make the first run down to 32 later this week.
went straight from summer to winter. Abt 10-14 days of fall this year. I look to make the first run down to 32 later this week.
If the dew point was a few more degrees colder we would be talking frost potential. I guess we still might for those "typically colder" locations. LR GFS does have dew points dropping into the 20s at the end of the month. That could be our focus point for the first widespread frost/freeze. And of course potentially give me a win for the first freeze for some locations.
Fountainguy97
Member
3km nam does have some NW flow snow showers! First high elevation snow of the season maybe?
Brian from Boone
Member
Boone and the mountain valleys were in the 30-32 range for lows, meanwhile in Blowing Rock I bottomed out at 44 and am already up to 52. Love these radiational cooling nights and the variation in temperatures.
Why do you want an Apps runner??!Too bad we can't get this in 2 months.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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This big wet, has materialized as the big dud! This is just sad
Atlanta will probably miss out on most at this point too.
ForsythSnow
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I'm mainly referencing the blocking and cold air, which would be stronger later on and further south.Why do you want an Apps runner??!
I know it man...I'm just messing with ya. I would definitely hop on board that train. A well-timed high would do wonders!
whatalife
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GeorgiaGirl
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Honestly there's not much at all from current radar trends to even have me at 70% for rain. 50% maybe as there's still scattered showers north of the main shield, but not 70%. I thought that the radar would tell me to get out as soon as I could for exercise, but it's really not telling me that (I might still go anyway, I'm not sure).
Unless you see some real filling in north, the main areas that are really going to see rain are from Columbus to just south of Macon to about Statesboro.
GFS scored a bit of a win here in a not so great trend as all of us could've used the rain.
Unless you see some real filling in north, the main areas that are really going to see rain are from Columbus to just south of Macon to about Statesboro.
GFS scored a bit of a win here in a not so great trend as all of us could've used the rain.