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Pattern Hotober

KyloG said:
Interesting seeing both GEFS and EPS model a fairly solid cold pattern to end October. Matches up with a-nino climo.

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Looking more and more like we might actually have a sustained period of below normal during the week of Halloween into the first week of November. Hard to get too excited though given the tendency for models to really flex the ridge in the west then flatten is as we approach real time. I don't think it's far fetched to believe November ends up below normal as well.

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Well hello there
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SD said:
It's a hybrid cad type event with the residual cool dry air mass at the surface and the warm moist air mass going over top

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Well hopefully its not just happy hour weirdness. Massive difference from 12z
 
Sleet City USA said:
Well hopefully its not just happy hour weirdness. Massive difference from 12z
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12z gfs was pretty unenthusiastic about anything getting going so you get this big change. Keep in mind the euro and eps are farther NW than most other modeling. If they were to be right the residual cool air mass would be eaten away and only left trapped in the foothills while the rest of us are in the soup

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Worth mentioning a second time: that rain chance on the weekend that has been popping up actually originates from the tropics and it's that "X" over the Yucatan. So, we're at the mercy of if whether that disturbance organizes or not and where it goes.
 
SD said:
12z gfs was pretty unenthusiastic about anything getting going so you get this big change. Keep in mind the euro and eps are farther NW than most other modeling. If they were to be right the residual cool air mass would be eaten away and only left trapped in the foothills while the rest of us are in the soup

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Are you saying we should expect the temps to be more in the 70s (as I am expecting)?
 
Sleet City USA said:
Are you saying we should expect the temps to be more in the 70s (as I am expecting)?
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I'd lean towards 30-50% rain chances with highs near 70. Until we get some clarity on what's going on in the gulf its hard to go with the wet cool gfs, or a warmer but wet idea with a low to our west, or a dry scenario with a low well to our southeast

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Who did GSP tick off. Quite the donut

And yes, that is the Wake Co gradient.

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GeorgiaGirl said:
Worth mentioning a second time: that rain chance on the weekend that has been popping up actually originates from the tropics and it's that "X" over the Yucatan. So, we're at the mercy of if whether that disturbance organizes or not and where it goes.
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Chances of a tropical storm from that are increasing per model consensus tendencies today. If so, some areas would very likely get several inches of rain within a pretty short period of time. Even if no tropical storm, just having the plentiful tropical moisture should still allow for that though the heavier totals would probably be more spread out.
 
Well today by all accounts a bust. I recieved 0.18in of rain today, which is funny considering I recieved 0.40 Saturday night into Sunday night.
 
It's actually been raining fairly steadily for maybe close to 40 minutes. Nothing hard but a steady rain. Maybe 1-2 more hours of it. Better than nothing. Maybe can add that to the Sunday rain, then a possible tropical system, and we'll have put a dent into it being dry. The grass already looked better from Sunday.
 
SD said:
Looking more and more like we might actually have a sustained period of below normal during the week of Halloween into the first week of November. Hard to get too excited though given the tendency for models to really flex the ridge in the west then flatten is as we approach real time. I don't think it's far fetched to believe November ends up below normal as well.

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Shane, Can we get a decent look in winter as well? Im not sure its a good thing to be cold during the fall if it cant carry over into the winter. Just curious.
 
rained for about 20 minutes tonight(about 5 minutes of heavy rain)... after 2 hours of light drizzle last night

#winning :rolleyes: I'm less concerned about cold tbh, we need widespread rain or its not gonna matter tbh
 
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Got a nice widespread rain today. Picked up right at 0.5 today on my rain gauge. Front looks to pass through the area tomorrow.
 
OMG, the FV3 being operational is so annoying due to its cold bias. The GEFS isn't much better.

On another note, beautiful steady rains have been falling here.
 
Nice soaking rain overnight here. Holding steady in the low 60’s. Not sure we make it much higher before the front plows through.


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Been raining since i woke up an hour ago. Looks like a nice addition to this past Sunday's rains
 
Most of the southeast except the mountains has never had measurable snow in October, so I'd say it's highly likely the 00z GFS is wrong.
 
CyclonicFury said:
Most of the southeast except the mountains has never had measurable snow in October, so I'd say it's highly likely the 00z GFS is wrong.
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I would add that beyond 144 hours, it is always "wrong". By that I mean there is no predictive value of one run of the operational beyond that point. The take away here is that the GEFS is indicating cooler than normal temps and rain chances in the long range (10 + days). It actually starts for Georgia, Alabama around 150 hours. Hopefully it won't be blazing hot again this month.
 
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