I'm experiencing a good soaking rain across the upstate South Carolina area. Hoping the tropical disturbance moves further north this weekend.
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Pattern Hotober
- Thread starter NorthDFWwx
- Start date
Most of the south had never seen 100 in October until this year either.... it wouldnt shock me to see snow in October.
One extreme to another sounds about right in the southeast.
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tennessee storm
Member
Trick or treat ? Lol
After last winter, it would shock me to see snow in January.
Fountainguy97
Member
you know after the December 10 storm it really felt like winter was over. Never felt that way about other winters (ive only been into weather since the 2010-2011 winter haha) It was just over after mid December last winter. Especially in Central and Eastern NC.
October so far is looking very pleasant. Plenty of storms in the future and plenty of cool temps.
ATLwxfan
Member
It's definitely a trick, not a treat
It would be very GFSish to show a blowtorch SER look at 12z to kill this ridiculous white Halloween talk.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
There may be mountain snow and a few days of some real cold for October but what won't happen is the snow outside the mountains. I saw it last night but didn't really say anything as I know it's false.
Honestly it'd be fitting to have that snap. Many of us reached 100 early in October, so now it's time for the opposite of many of us being -20 or even further later this month. From summer to winter in the same month.
Honestly it'd be fitting to have that snap. Many of us reached 100 early in October, so now it's time for the opposite of many of us being -20 or even further later this month. From summer to winter in the same month.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I'm dreaming of a white Halloween
Just like the ones I will never know.
Where the pumpkins glisten
And children listen
To hear zombies in the snow.
Just like the ones I will never know.
Where the pumpkins glisten
And children listen
To hear zombies in the snow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Get it out of your head, it was one run of a cold biased model. It'll be 80 now on Halloween I guarantee!
cd2play
Member
Fify
I remember when I was a kid we had snow flurries on Halloween when I lived in the northern burbs of Atlanta
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Half an inch from last night and this morning in that soaker. I'll take it given that radar wasn't promising most of the day.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Actually, I love Halloween, and I love snow. Snow on Halloween would suck for Halloween, but it would be cool to see snow. I am conflicted.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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Rockin the .18!!!!
NAM nailed it!
NAM nailed it!
Well well. The grumpy yard received 0.8 last night bringing the weekly total to 1.3.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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This grumpy yard received .18, to go with the .16 I got a few days ago! 6-7 more events and I’ll make an inch!
Good lord GFS, get a grip
Got 0.8 so far, euro sucks it showed lighter amounts here, hrrr nailed it
Good lord GFS, get a grip
With a airmass out ahead of it like this (dry low/mid levels) definitely supports a in-situ CAD dome, not far away from WBing to sleet here, first true cold rain
I mean do you think it has any merit to it?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
CAD with a tropical system moving through. Believe it or not, I believe it. Irma was able to bring the temps down quite a bit as she passed through, so a low would have the same effect. Not to mention it's a low as well.Good lord GFS, get a grip
So what you're saying is we need a stronger low to bring temps down more?
Fountainguy97
Member
yes. Stronger the low. The colder the temps can be. But it’s October and the air mass isn’t super cold. Would be hard to “manufacture” enough cold air from the storm to produce frozen precip.
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Oh i'm not looking for wintry precip. just colder temps
Doesn’t really look fully tropical as well which would lead to a colder side.
Brent
Member
its gonna be a longggg winter
Fountainguy97
Member
Cold front just pushed through here. Nice little showers and gusty winds. Temp down 5 to 55. Going to be an amazing couple of days!
high tmw is 56!
high tmw is 56!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
That "cold snap" that was around the edges of funny land getting axed is just funny to me. The next week or so still seems to be holding (so it'd mean the first shot of cooler air next week is correct) and you can't take away the next two days at all. To add to that, if the tropical system does track over the interior southeast, it's going to be frigid feeling.
Vague agreement from the 12k NAM
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Garbage in, garbage out. We get one cold bias away and here we see more snow in fantasyland.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
CMC also has the in-situ CAD but it's west (which will show we need to sort out where the tropical system goes).
ICON has it too.
I'll check the Euro from last night in a few.
Edit: It has it but it's only south?
ICON has it too.
I'll check the Euro from last night in a few.
Edit: It has it but it's only south?
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The GFS (FV3) as of last check still had a problem with CAD. Way too cold. I will be waiting until it proves to me it's been fixed before I trust anything dealing with CAD from it again.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Sandy had this effect in nearly perfect conditions to produce heavy snow. Some spots along the border of NC/TN received 3ft of snow in Oct/Nov.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I totally think the CAD is possible, maybe not to the extent shown but if we get the tropical system to track the way shown I absolutely can see widespread 50s and 60s under the areas that have the rain and clouds. I've seen plenty of busts on the temp forecasts with CAD before. Not saying it'll be the same, just that it's happened.
On another note, the Euro looked incredible for really all of next week after Monday on the free stuff I saw in weather.us. It had the early week shot and I guess it sticks the whole way.
It'll be a shame if the late week cooler weather just gets dropped entirely.
On another note, the Euro looked incredible for really all of next week after Monday on the free stuff I saw in weather.us. It had the early week shot and I guess it sticks the whole way.
It'll be a shame if the late week cooler weather just gets dropped entirely.
GFS Miller Bs the tropical system. Awesome.
Yep, on it’s N/NW quadrant of the low it can sort of pull in lower dews at lower levels which means some dynamical cooling which translates to cooler surface temps hence a in-situ CAD since a high to the NE is gone by then
Yea gfs shows this, warm core trying to hold but there some CAA at the northwest/west side of the system so it’s not 100% tropical although it’s sorta close, with that area of CAA it would only reinforce that cooler dome
