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Pattern Hotober

Rain looks to have come to an end for now. Was hoping for a little more but still managed .33 which is certainly better then the goose egg of rain I have received in the past month. Looking forward to hopefully getting some more on Tuesday.
 
So I get rain that is a little steadier than a 10 minute burst for the first time in over a month and my power cuts off 3 times at night. How nice.
 
Low of 41.7 and I came outside to one of the coolest weather phenomena I’ve ever seen.

A patch of fog was sunk deep into the valley and the sun was shining 100% onto it right outside my door.

The fog was just large enough for the bow and it’s clearing out now.

simply amazing. (Low res image)

7B981211-0F18-47E9-A6E6-A64CAED4973D.jpeg
 
Definitely a good trend on the EPS. That heat ridge that will try to build in won't get established for more than a day or 2 at best now I'd imagine.
ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_10.png
 
Looking over some models this morning and looks there is a big cool down end of October/November GFS had it yesterday and still signaling the same outcome. Euro ensembles saying the same thing.


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Looking over some models this morning and looks there is a big cool down end of October/November GFS had it yesterday and still signaling the same outcome. Euro ensembles saying the same thing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah I'll have to give the GFS some credit for showing the cooldowns ahead of time, just as the pattern though, not the snow and winter weather lol.
 
0.39"

Not much but the highest total since those quick burst 0.1"s since the first of September. Maybe we'll see at least 1-2" in the rain event this week.
 
I'm not sure what the daily averages are right now but if you go off the monthly average, if it actually rains a good bit tomorrow and I don't miss to the south, it's possible I have 3 below average days in a week and others are going to say the same thing.

It's close though and Tuesday probably wouldn't be if I knew the daily average. I would not be surprised if October's dailies get raised a couple of degrees. That's not going to change that the early high 90s and 100s were anomalous.
 
The heat ridge only lasts 3 days on this run and if the rain is correct, it's only warm for 2 of those days for parts of the southeast. That's nice especially since there's backup for it.
 
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