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Pattern Hotober

NWS forecast may bust low. 70F right now, still saying we'll top out at 81
 
Widespread 40s and 50s in late October as the noon temp for Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and the Carolinas, you see that'd actually make sense as it has happened before, and probably quite a few times recently but its at nearly 300 hours.
 
Looks like the rain keep move south. Waiting on the NW trend.


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I would say if this wave remain suppressed it could be a show of things to come for the winter? Maybe a season where a suppressed flow is more important than a NW trend a last minute.
 
Picked up .53 yesterday and last night at least for the most part it was slow steady soaker
Ended up with 1.77 2 of my 3 biggest rains since may have occurred after 9/1. Tomorrow night into Wednesday has sneaky potential to verify higher than we are seeing on the models.

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It may be getting talked about in the topics thread but watch the gulf this week for some type of hybrid or disorganized system to develop and bring another decent rain event to the region

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Maybe the update actually fixed what was the FV3's problem with being too suppressed compared to other suites but did not get the cold bias (which will kind of be important). As I was talking about the wiggle room (and remembered what the Euro had which was further north) and instead its trending south.
 
.18 yesterday!
the NAM has me at .18 for the big event Tuesday/Wednesday, the Euro .13, that’s how you beat drought! ????????
 
.18 yesterday!
the NAM has me at .18 for the big event Tuesday/Wednesday, the Euro .13, that’s how you beat drought! ????????
My yard is wet and the ground at work was noticeably moisterer (spelling) today. I’ll take it! Getting the atmosphere ready, healed, and prepared for a blockbuster winter!!
 

Was exactly what I was about to say, and I’m honestly thinking about making a thread on it , that wind field with that upcoming system can’t be ignored, looks a little bit on the HSLC side although I don’t like that wind field and large amounts of low level moisture, which was all that was needed for the lee county AL tornado, gotta remember it developed in only 250-500 jkg of cape, soundings that day were deeply moist, Supercell composites aren’t to impressive however For this one 777075EB-2CC0-481A-A932-7067A71C5765.png38B46F12-8C79-482D-A773-38B7F0E7B34C.jpeg3CDA5057-A581-45E7-8CDF-F12D178949B4.jpeg3047FBD6-C086-44C9-8C2D-E95D33EC4524.jpeg
 
What's up with that little corridor of 50s in the W Carolinas? happy hour gfs having a good time
gfs_T2m_seus_41.png
 
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