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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

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Downeastnc said:
There is no such thing as the "Greenhouse gas atmospheric absorption theory...go re read the exchange I was talking about how man is producing more CO2 than the Earth's carbon cycle can handle...if we are making twice as much CO2 than the carbon cycle can handle, what happens to the excess CO2....it builds up in the air....I mean how do you explain these charts....given that we know we are doubling the capacity of what the earth can handle Co2 wise ANNUALLY it no real surprise that the charts looks the way they do, it is undeniable that we humans are rapidly increasing CO2 concentrations the only question is not if we are contributing to the warming but rather how much and what are the ramifications of not changing our CO2 output for several more decades.

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or even further back.....

View attachment 86410
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Check out this graph and note the lack of correlation of CO2 concentration and temperatures.
1626066934904.png
 
MichaelJ said:
Check out this graph and note the lack of correlation of CO2 concentration and temperatures.
View attachment 86426
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Here is a good article on why this chart above does not make the point you think it makes...

earth.org

A Graphical History of Atmospheric CO2 Levels Over Time | Earth.Org

As the most abundant greenhouse gas in our atmosphere, CO2 levels have varied widely over the course of the Earth’s 4.54 billion year history.
earth.org earth.org

1626084852337.png


1626084865638.png

The real kicker though is this chart......it plainly shows the effects of man surpassing the ability of the earth carbon cycle to sequester the excess CO2....

1626085067260.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Here is a good article on why this chart above does not make the point you think it makes...

earth.org

A Graphical History of Atmospheric CO2 Levels Over Time | Earth.Org

As the most abundant greenhouse gas in our atmosphere, CO2 levels have varied widely over the course of the Earth’s 4.54 billion year history.
earth.org earth.org

View attachment 86427


View attachment 86428

The real kicker though is this chart......it plainly shows the effects of man surpassing the ability of the earth carbon cycle to sequester the excess CO2....

View attachment 86429
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The climate is stable over millennial timescales due the carbon cycle and we just threw a giant wrench into it.


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BHS1975 said:
The climate is stable over millennial timescales due the carbon cycle and we just threw a giant wrench into it.


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Not according to his article "At the time, atmospheric CO2 concentration was at a whopping 3000 to 9000 ppm! The average temperature wasn’t much more than 10 degrees C above today’s, and those of you who have heard of the runaway hothouse Earth scenario may wonder why it didn’t happen then. Major factors were that the Sun was cooler, and the planet’s orbital cycles were different"
 
VegasEagle said:
Not according to his article "At the time, atmospheric CO2 concentration was at a whopping 3000 to 9000 ppm! The average temperature wasn’t much more than 10 degrees C above today’s, and those of you who have heard of the runaway hothouse Earth scenario may wonder why it didn’t happen then. Major factors were that the Sun was cooler, and the planet’s orbital cycles were different"
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skepticalscience.com

Do high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2?

<p>When CO2 levels were higher in the past, solar levels were also lower. The combined effect of sun and CO2 matches well with climate.</p>
skepticalscience.com

Another important factor is the sun. During the Ordovician, it would have been several percent dimmer according to established nuclear models of main sequence stars. Surprisingly, this raises the CO2 threshold for glaciation to a staggering 3000 ppmv or so. This also explains (along with the logarithmic forcing effect of CO2) why a runaway greenhouse didn't occur: with a dimmer sun, high CO2 is necessary to stop the Earth freezing over.

In summary, we know CO2 was probably very high coming into the Late Ordovician period, however the subsequent dip in CO2 was brief enough not to register in the GEOCARB model, yet low enough (with the help of a dimmer sun) to trigger permanent ice-formation. Effectively it was a brief excursion to coldness during an otherwise warm era, due to a coincidence of conditions.
 
I recall a few years ago Joe Bastardi theorized we would have another cooling period due to salt in the ocean sinking down closer to the abyss. Im not sure what the hell that even means, but nonetheless what he said. He also misses some seasonal forecasts (as you all know), so not sure anything he says is worth anything in regards to cooling.
 
Downeastnc said:
skepticalscience.com

Do high levels of CO2 in the past contradict the warming effect of CO2?

<p>When CO2 levels were higher in the past, solar levels were also lower. The combined effect of sun and CO2 matches well with climate.</p>
skepticalscience.com

Another important factor is the sun. During the Ordovician, it would have been several percent dimmer according to established nuclear models of main sequence stars. Surprisingly, this raises the CO2 threshold for glaciation to a staggering 3000 ppmv or so. This also explains (along with the logarithmic forcing effect of CO2) why a runaway greenhouse didn't occur: with a dimmer sun, high CO2 is necessary to stop the Earth freezing over.

In summary, we know CO2 was probably very high coming into the Late Ordovician period, however the subsequent dip in CO2 was brief enough not to register in the GEOCARB model, yet low enough (with the help of a dimmer sun) to trigger permanent ice-formation. Effectively it was a brief excursion to coldness during an otherwise warm era, due to a coincidence of conditions.
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I think there is definitely a negative feedback that keeps CO2 low with plants moving north and to higher elevations as it warms and the weathering process increasing with higher precipitation rates. It would take thousands of years for the levels to get back to preindustrial.


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The forecast for Yakutsk Russia is 85 degrees. So they are dealing with some heat too. Summit Camp Greenland is also near freezing, very warm for their standards.
 
The global warming Chicken Little's insist that the sky is falling but don’t want you to know six key facts.

First, in his new book “Unsettled,” Obama Administration Department of Energy chief scientist Steven Koonin shows that the models relied upon by the Left to predict future global warming are so poor that they cannot even reproduce the temperature changes in the 20th century.

If these models cannot reproduce past temperatures already known when the models were developed, how can they possibly reliably predict temperatures decades into the future?

Second, Koonin’s book also documents that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s own analysis indicates that any negative economic impact that global warming eventually may have will be so modest that it warrants no action.

Third, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the UN IPPC do not claim that a link has been established between global warming and natural disasters.

In 2020, the NOAA stated: “it is premature to conclude with high confidence that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities have had a detectable impact on Atlantic basin hurricane activity,” and “changes in tropical cyclone activity … are not yet detectable.”

The UN IPPC, the Wall Street Journal reported, “says that it too lacks evidence to show that warming is making storms and flooding worse.”

Fourth, as the earth’s temperature has risen, natural disasters have become far less deadly.

Since 1920, the planet’s temperature has risen by 1.29 degrees Celsius and world population has quadrupled from less than two billion to over seven and half billion – yet EM-DAT, The International Disaster Database, reports that the number of people killed by natural disasters has declined by over 80 percent, from almost 55,000 per year to less than 10,000 per year.

Fifth, some of the world’s best scientists believe that global warming will be beneficial rather than harmful.

In 2017, a group of eminent scientists – such as Richard Lindzen of MIT, William Happer of Princeton, and Judith Curry of Georgia Tech – wrote that “[o]bservations [over the last] 25 years … show that warming from increased atmospheric CO2 will be benign.”

Carbon dioxide, they noted, “is not a pollutant but a major benefit to agriculture and other life on Earth.”

Sixth, global warming saves lives. A study published in 2015 by the British medical journal The Lancet found that cold kills over 17 times more people than heat.

This study by 22 scientists from around the world – which examined over 74 million deaths in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States in 1985-2012, “the largest dataset ever collected to assess temperature-health associations”– reported that cold caused 7.29 percent of these deaths, while heat caused only 0.42 percent.

And small changes in the temperature matter: “moderately hot and cold temperatures” caused 88.85 percent of the temperature-related deaths, while “extreme” temperatures caused only 11.15 percent.

We must not let the Left bully us into draconian action with unfounded claims of a looming climate catastrophe. Know the facts. Global warming is not a problem.
 
I might just have to sell my Jeep for a hybrid so I can do my part. If each person would do "their part", maybe we can offset GW together. Just remember, we will be the only nation participating.
 
MichaelJ said:
The global warming Chicken Little's insist that the sky is falling but don’t want you to know six key facts.

First, in his new book “Unsettled,” Obama Administration Department of Energy chief scientist Steven Koonin shows that the models relied upon by the Left to predict future global warming are so poor that they cannot even reproduce the temperature changes in the 20th century.

If these models cannot reproduce past temperatures already known when the models were developed, how can they possibly reliably predict temperatures decades into the future?

Second, Koonin’s book also documents that the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s own analysis indicates that any negative economic impact that global warming eventually may have will be so modest that it warrants no action.

Third, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the UN IPPC do not claim that a link has been established between global warming and natural disasters.

In 2020, the NOAA stated: “it is premature to conclude with high confidence that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities have had a detectable impact on Atlantic basin hurricane activity,” and “changes in tropical cyclone activity … are not yet detectable.”

The UN IPPC, the Wall Street Journal reported, “says that it too lacks evidence to show that warming is making storms and flooding worse.”

Fourth, as the earth’s temperature has risen, natural disasters have become far less deadly.

Since 1920, the planet’s temperature has risen by 1.29 degrees Celsius and world population has quadrupled from less than two billion to over seven and half billion – yet EM-DAT, The International Disaster Database, reports that the number of people killed by natural disasters has declined by over 80 percent, from almost 55,000 per year to less than 10,000 per year.

Fifth, some of the world’s best scientists believe that global warming will be beneficial rather than harmful.

In 2017, a group of eminent scientists – such as Richard Lindzen of MIT, William Happer of Princeton, and Judith Curry of Georgia Tech – wrote that “[o]bservations [over the last] 25 years … show that warming from increased atmospheric CO2 will be benign.”

Carbon dioxide, they noted, “is not a pollutant but a major benefit to agriculture and other life on Earth.”

Sixth, global warming saves lives. A study published in 2015 by the British medical journal The Lancet found that cold kills over 17 times more people than heat.

This study by 22 scientists from around the world – which examined over 74 million deaths in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, the United Kingdom, and the United States in 1985-2012, “the largest dataset ever collected to assess temperature-health associations”– reported that cold caused 7.29 percent of these deaths, while heat caused only 0.42 percent.

And small changes in the temperature matter: “moderately hot and cold temperatures” caused 88.85 percent of the temperature-related deaths, while “extreme” temperatures caused only 11.15 percent.

We must not let the Left bully us into draconian action with unfounded claims of a looming climate catastrophe. Know the facts. Global warming is not a problem.
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This sounds reasonable to me and is near where I stand (in the middle) as well as in the general area where Curry, Christy, and Spencer all are. None of this denies AGW at all, but it denies the likelihood of it becoming a catastrophe and also mentions the benefits of warming. It also mentions the unreliability of models and that the worst case scenarios predicted by them can't be relied on to be accurate.
 
GaWx said:
This sounds reasonable to me and is near where I stand (in the middle) as well as in the general area where Curry, Christy, and Spencer all are. None of this denies AGW at all, but it denies the likelihood of it becoming a catastrophe and also mentions the benefits of warming. It also mentions the unreliability of models and that the worst case scenarios predicted by them can't be relied on to be accurate.
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No, you need to sell your trucks, suv's, boats, 4 wheelers and find a different solution. No more jet rides to your favorite destinations and vacation spots on Earth. No more cruises for you and your family to enjoy majestic locations you otherwise wouldn't get to see. Don't even think about using 2 ply toilet paper, or eating steak because we ALL know the dangers of cow farts. These people are the ones that want to run our economy and tell us they know what's best for us. Even if that was the case, is this how you go about convincing people??
 
Extreme flooding is common now with the recent floods in Japan and now this one.

www.npr.org

Torrential Rain And Flooding Are Wreaking Havoc Across Western Germany

The storms also have struck Belgium and other European countries. More than 60 people have died and dozens remain missing. In Germany has a state of emergency and the army has been deployed.
www.npr.org www.npr.org


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BHS1975 said:
Extreme flooding is common now with the recent floods in Japan and now this one.

www.npr.org

Torrential Rain And Flooding Are Wreaking Havoc Across Western Germany

The storms also have struck Belgium and other European countries. More than 60 people have died and dozens remain missing. In Germany has a state of emergency and the army has been deployed.
www.npr.org www.npr.org


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How can you prove this is related to AGW? Of course the climate change alarmists are going to jump on most wx catastrophes and blame them on AGW with zero proof.
 
GaWx said:
How can you prove this is related to AGW? Of course the climate change alarmists are going to jump on most wx catastrophes and blame them on AGW with zero proof.
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I'm sure it will be studied soon.

www.carbonbrief.org

Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world - Carbon Brief

Attribution studies calculate whether, and by how much, climate change affected the intensity, frequency or impact of extremes – Carbon Brief has mapped every published study on how climate change has influenced extreme weather.
www.carbonbrief.org www.carbonbrief.org


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snowlover91 said:
While Arctic sea ice is 3rd lowest on record, it appears the Antarctic is doing quite well. Also the long term trends there and averages have been trending up while the Arctic has been going down. Interesting stuff.
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It makes sense as it is the opposite of the north pole with land surrounded by water with a massive ice sheet on top. It will eventually trend lower as the ocean warms enough to melt the sea ice faster than the extra moisture from the warmer ocean and air causing more snowfall and the accelerated glacier flow into the ocean is negated.


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We need to pay attention to what happens over the next 500 to 1000 years, and if intervention is necessary. We cant just overlook this. We need to record hard data.
 
VegasEagle said:
www.breitbart.com

Climate Scientist Warns ‘Next 20-30 Years Will Be Cold’

Climate scientist Dr. Willie Soon noted this week solar activity suggests several decades of global cooling rather than warming.
www.breitbart.com www.breitbart.com
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My stance on this as I’ve stated is that AGW is real and has caused ~3F of GW since the late 1800s. But I also believe that the alarmists are going way too far with doomsday predictions based on non trustworthy climate models, are doing a lot of this due to politics, and are claiming that individual wx events are due to AGW with no proof. Dr. Christy, Judith Curry, and Dr. Spencer all have similar views.

The problem with the solar argument is that the sun has overall been the quietest in 200 years since 2007. We’re now 14 years later and have yet to see any clearcut global cool down. I was a big believer in the possibility that the sun was the major reason for GW due to it being the strongest in several hundred years during the 2nd half of last century. And I had assumed a 5 to perhaps 10 year lag period for cooling to occur once the sun got much quieter. I even posted about this repeatedly at AmericanWx and was called a "denier" many times because of that. However, since it has yet to cool in 14 years and has instead continued to warm overall, I’ve largely abandoned the possibility that the sun is the major GW factor.
 
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snowlover91 said:
Whatever the reason, the Arctic is melting out pretty slowly this year compared with the average and recent years.

View attachment 87361
View attachment 87362
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I wonder if there is any relation to what has been a thus far very cool summer for our cold air source regions… Alaska and northern Canada? This is something that I’ve been following closely to see how quickly those regions begin building up cold this year and I’m finding that many of those spots are having their coolest summer since 2013.
 
Chazwin said:
I wonder if there is any relation to what has been a thus far very cool summer for our cold air source regions… Alaska and northern Canada? This is something that I’ve been following closely to see how quickly those regions begin building up cold this year and I’m finding that many of those spots are having their coolest summer since 2013.
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How far did the western ridge extend into Canada? Yellowknife?
 
GaWx said:
My stance on this as I’ve stated isat AGW is real and has caused ~3F of GW since the late 1800s. But I also believe that the alarmists are going way too far with doomsday predictions based on non trustworthy climate models, are doing a lot of this due to politics, and are claiming that individual wx events are due to AGW with no proof. Dr. Christy, Judith Curry, and Dr. Spencer all have similar views.

The problem with the solar argument is that the sun has overall been the quietest in 200 years since 2007. We’re now 14 years later and have yet to see any clearcut global cool down. I was a big believer in the possibility that the sun was the major reason for GW due to it being the strongest in several hundred years during the 2nd half of last century. And I had assumed a 5 to perhaps 10 year lag period for cooling to occur once the sun got much quieter. I even posted about this repeatedly at AmericanWx and was called a "denier" many times because of that. However, since it has yet to cool in 14 years and has instead continued to warm overall, I’ve largely abandoned the possibility that the sun is the major GW factor.
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How did the ice ages events happen?
 
This is the accumulated ice gain/loss in Greenland from Sept. 1st 2020 through yesterday. Looks like a pretty good year for gains to my "untrained" eye!
 
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