• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

WEATHERBOYROY

Member
Joined
Jan 12, 2017
Messages
106
Reaction score
140
Location
Pinson, AL
Well, your posts sure are reading like a conspiracy nut job as you put it. The science is quite clear on global warming no matter how much you keep trying to deny it's happening.


you apparently just drink the cool aid ....at least open your eyes and see that what you call science is anything BUT proven .... in fact the signs at the Glacier national park warning that the glaciers would be melted by 2020 were just taken down......BECAUSE like every one of you guys
un-scientific predictions IT DIDN'T HAPPEN,,,,AGAIN! ;) If this is science, Einstein was a monkey.
 

NCSNOW

Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2016
Messages
1,150
Reaction score
1,749
I have to wonder- (and I am not preaching climate change) but the loss of sea ice must have some impact on our weather. It begs the question of models and forecasts being able to decipher the difference between pattern recognition and determining LR forecast. I don't think models have good insight, yet. Hence, why we going back and forth every day. At some point somethings, gotta give, hopefully for the best. It's going to snow, it's just a matter of how much and when.
Loss of sea ice? Its as highest as its been in decades right now
 

NCSNOW

Member
Joined
Dec 2, 2016
Messages
1,150
Reaction score
1,749
You're trolling... right?
December 2019 sea ice grew by an average of 82,100 square kilometers (31,700 square miles) per day. This is faster than the 1981 to 2010 average gain of 64,100 square kilometers (24,700 square miles per day) and is the third fastest December ice growth rate in the satellite record, behind 2006 and 2016.Jan 7, 2020
 

frazdaddy

Member
Joined
Jan 13, 2020
Messages
32
Reaction score
40
Location
27559
December 2019 sea ice grew by an average of 82,100 square kilometers (31,700 square miles) per day. This is faster than the 1981 to 2010 average gain of 64,100 square kilometers (24,700 square miles per day) and is the third fastest December ice growth rate in the satellite record, behind 2006 and 2016.Jan 7, 2020
If I understand it right the growth, recovery rate in Dec was fast but overall coverage for the last 13 years have been at a record low. I could have misunderstood it.
 

Downeastnc

Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2019
Messages
755
Reaction score
1,269
Location
Greenville NC
If I understand it right the growth, recovery rate in Dec was fast but overall coverage for the last 13 years have been at a record low. I could have misunderstood it.
Also the reason the growth rates are so high is there was so much open water to refreeze.....so in order to see so much new ice growth so fast you first had to melt all the previous ice....so in winters in the past when the ice pack was larger and had older ice the refreeze rate was lower because it was already frozen in many places....so actually you will see the biggest refreeze numbers after particularly bad melt years....for instance Nov 2016 had the lowest extent in the sat era so not surprisingly that Dec had some of the biggest refreeze numbers....

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/12/arctic-and-antarctic-at-record-low-levels/
 

frazdaddy

Member
Joined
Jan 13, 2020
Messages
32
Reaction score
40
Location
27559
Also the reason the growth rates are so high is there was so much open water to refreeze.....so in order to see so much new ice growth so fast you first had to melt all the previous ice....so in winters in the past when the ice pack was larger and had older ice the refreeze rate was lower because it was already frozen in many places....so actually you will see the biggest refreeze numbers after particularly bad melt years....for instance Nov 2016 had the lowest extent in the sat era so not surprisingly that Dec had some of the biggest refreeze numbers....

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2016/12/arctic-and-antarctic-at-record-low-levels/
Spot on, another factor on the fast refreeze is that because of the warm pool of water and it starting the refreeze process later in the year. The refreeze did not get started till the area was in total darkness so no daily solar influence.
 

MichaelJ

Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2016
Messages
612
Reaction score
824
Location
Clemmons, NC
When the AMO goes negative, you will see a rise in area and extent. How much depends on several factors and this should occur in the next 3-7 years. The temp is not what melts the ice as it is still very cold even with a 1-2C rise, it is the warm ocean waters found in a positive AMO along with undersea volcanoes which thins the ice from below
 

BHS1975

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
1,824
Reaction score
1,093
Location
Raleigh, NC
When the AMO goes negative, you will see a rise in area and extent. How much depends on several factors and this should occur in the next 3-7 years. The temp is not what melts the ice as it is still very cold even with a 1-2C rise, it is the warm ocean waters found in a positive AMO along with undersea volcanoes which thins the ice from below
This current warm phase of the AMO has gotten higher that the last 2 and will only delay the inevitable during the cold phase. The bottom line is we don’t know the exact outcome for the sea ice in the future an are being irresponsible with the climate and not taking care of the planet. It’s like smoking where you know it’s bad but you don’t know if you will have complications or not but the sooner you quit the less risk you have for any negative effects.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Fountainguy97

Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2018
Messages
811
Reaction score
1,773
Location
Erwin, TN: 1900ft
There is no effing way to know what the average temp was 8000 years ago. That’s a pointless graph. It’s only function is to promote an agenda.
That’s always been one of my biggest doubts. We cant even get weather stations today to read accurately because of urbanization around them. How can we expect a graph using tree cores or ice or whatever the core of the day is to exactly tell the global picture of temps for a few millennia? Lol. And what if spikes like this happen all the time but you just can’t see them via current methods?

I’m not all out against the concept of warming but I am a skeptic. ESEPCIALLY when the driving voice for any topic is a specific political party or politics in general. That’s when the red flags go way up because we all know politics is not known for its honesty lol.
 

J.C.

Member
Joined
Jan 11, 2017
Messages
503
Reaction score
462
Location
Marietta, GA
Believe what you want, but I'm gonna lay some facts down on you that prove what you are believing isn't entirely true. If the world were truly getting warmer, then the data would prove it out? I decided to look at a Us city, that I knew would have some older data to look at the record highs and lows for January to see how the recent temperatures compared to the older ones. knowing that a record would usually indicate there were probably a period of several days above or below near that date. So I chose Cincinnati Ohio whose records go back to 1872. That gives us 148 years of info. A pretty good sample. The middle of the record dates would be approximately 1950. So, looking at the record highs and lows, I separated the records that came before 1950 and called them early period records, and the ones that were post 1950 I called them modern period records. As it turns out, January s in the modern period turned out to be colder. 21 of the 31 days of record cold were after 1960 (68 percent) . Also, January s in the early period turned out to be hotter. 19 of the of the 31,(61 percent) record hot days were recorded in the early period (pre 1950). Attached you will find the data from Weather .gov.
https://www.weather.gov/iln/climate_records_cvg#

I understand why you chose 1950 as your benchmark being the center of what recorded data we have, I just don't know if it makes sense to use that year. I don't know the exact numbers, but Asia, the highest populated continent on the planet, has modernized and increased their carbon footprint who knows how many times since 1950. 1990 is probably a better benchmark for your calculations.
 
Last edited:

Downeastnc

Member
Joined
Jan 29, 2019
Messages
755
Reaction score
1,269
Location
Greenville NC
That’s always been one of my biggest doubts. We cant even get weather stations today to read accurately because of urbanization around them. How can we expect a graph using tree cores or ice or whatever the core of the day is to exactly tell the global picture of temps for a few millennia? Lol. And what if spikes like this happen all the time but you just can’t see them via current methods?

I’m not all out against the concept of warming but I am a skeptic. ESEPCIALLY when the driving voice for any topic is a specific political party or politics in general. That’s when the red flags go way up because we all know politics is not known for its honesty lol.
I am less of a skeptic now than I was, I just don't see how we are not making a impact, certainly I don't think anyone can realistically quantify that impact in real numbers but its not 0....the earth has a natural variation cycle for CO2, man harvesting and releasing 40 gigatons of sequestered CO2 a year is not part of that cycle, its like having a room with a air purifier in it that is capable of handling a few smokers and then having 20 people come in the room smoking, the purifier will take care of some of the excess but the room still ends up smokier than it was when there was only a few smokers....it is a shame that both sides have turned this into a political issue, this causes people on both sides to take ridiculous stances on a issue that should be strictly based on science.
 

WEATHERBOYROY

Member
Joined
Jan 12, 2017
Messages
106
Reaction score
140
Location
Pinson, AL
I understand why you chose 1950 as your benchmark being the center of what recorded data we have, I just don't know if it makes sense to use that year. I don't know the exact numbers, but Asia, the highest populated continent on the planet, has modernized and increased their carbon footprint who knows how many times since 1950. 1990 is probably a better benchmark for your calculations.

Thanks brother, I see where you're coming from, but manufacturing sector really boomed after WWII , and was totally EPA free until 1970. In fact until 1980 the pollution from the factories in Birmingham restricted visibility so much so that Monday through Friday you rarely could see the top of Red mountain from the north side of the city limits. If you shopped downtown it was common place to get smut on your hands if you rubbed them along an exposed handrail. so, I feel like 1950 is probably a better place for the midpoint.
 

MichaelJ

Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2016
Messages
612
Reaction score
824
Location
Clemmons, NC
The CFSV2 has an ice bias that is almost always higher values than the actual turns out to be so it will be interesting this melt season to see if it's current forecast of way below 2012 turns out accurate. AFAIK, there has not been a major upgrade to the Climate model (CFSV2) last year so perhaps it will be right this time now that is is showing a major ice reduction over even 2012?
 

superjames1992

Rates Will Overcome All
Member
Joined
Dec 15, 2019
Messages
452
Reaction score
980
Location
Durham, NC
Antarctica appears to have set a new high temperature record the other day at Esperanza Base, breaking the old record also set at the same location in 2015.
 

MichaelJ

Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2016
Messages
612
Reaction score
824
Location
Clemmons, NC
Antarctica appears to have set a new high temperature record the other day at Esperanza Base, breaking the old record also set at the same location in 2015.
Yes but that is a one day event. Looking at the ice graph, Antarctica is about at normal in ice for the season.
 

snowlover91

Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2018
Messages
1,951
Reaction score
3,210
Location
Wilson, NC
The Arctic ice has made a nice recovery in extent this winter. It’s currently 14th lowest on record per JAXA and the overall graph and chart is the healthiest I’ve seen in recent years. Volume is still lagging but also recovering.

1581303751326.png
1581303786484.png

And here’s how it compares overall, courtesy of the Arctic sea ice forum.
1581303871579.jpeg
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,817
Reaction score
14,059
Location
SAV, GA
The Arctic ice has made a nice recovery in extent this winter. It’s currently 14th lowest on record per JAXA and the overall graph and chart is the healthiest I’ve seen in recent years. Volume is still lagging but also recovering.

View attachment 33745
View attachment 33746

And here’s how it compares overall, courtesy of the Arctic sea ice forum.
View attachment 33747
That’s pretty good considering that the Arctic has still been running AN practically every day other than in summer.
 

snowlover91

Member
Joined
Apr 23, 2018
Messages
1,951
Reaction score
3,210
Location
Wilson, NC
That’s pretty good considering that the Arctic has still been running AN practically every day other than in summer.
Yeah the key is the cold has been in all the key areas and there haven’t been significant warm air intrusions into the fringe areas like the Bering and Chukchi Sea areas. Volume is now 5th lowest based on PIOMAS data so still a good bit of recovery needed there.
 

Rain Cold

Fixed
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,712
Reaction score
13,165
Location
Raleigh, NC
Yeah the key is the cold has been in all the key areas and there haven’t been significant warm air intrusions into the fringe areas like the Bering and Chukchi Sea areas. Volume is now 5th lowest based on PIOMAS data so still a good bit of recovery needed there.
Hard to get too warm when the big PV just cranks up there all winter. Glad there's some recovery though. Going to need to build some depth or it's not gonna hang out long.
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
6,817
Reaction score
14,059
Location
SAV, GA
Maybe it will tame the summer heat too when the PV relaxes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I'm really surprised that the Arctic is STILL AN even with the record high +AO and very long strong +AO preceding it! This is disappointing.

1581389980379.png
 
Last edited:

BHS1975

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
1,824
Reaction score
1,093
Location
Raleigh, NC


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Top