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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

Lickwx

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My beliefs on global warming align with what the scientists say not the media : it exists but it is not an existential threat for human civilization . I am however skeptical of course as well. How much is “ man made “, how much is “ natural” and should we really do anything about it if we could? How much of the issue has been bastardized by certain political elements that aim to use the issue to further their own goals ( carbon taxes , more government etc).
 

superjames1992

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Sea ice is in a bad state this year. Quite likely may be looking at breaking 2012’s record low minimum extent later this summer.
 

SD

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Sea ice is in a bad state this year. Quite likely may be looking at breaking 2012’s record low minimum extent later this summer.
That mega PV we had this winter isn't going to pay off. I hope we aren't going to enter some cycle of mega winter pvs then warm arctic summers
 

WEATHERBOYROY

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All this crying wolf about global warming....nobody is really ready when the wolf comes
But the day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night; in the which the heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat, the earth also and the works that are therein shall be burned up.
 

Rain Cold

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All this crying wolf about global warming....nobody is really ready when the wolf comes
But the day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night; in the which the heavens shall pass away with a great noise, and the elements shall melt with fervent heat, the earth also and the works that are therein shall be burned up.
I don't disagree with Scripture, but this is an odd thing to post in the GW thread. Hard to argue that the climate isn't getting warmer, though.
 

MichaelJ

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I don't disagree with Scripture, but this is an odd thing to post in the GW thread. Hard to argue that the climate isn't getting warmer, though.
It absolutely is and few scientists dispute we are in a warming period. The questions of what is causing it and the severity of its effects are where the rub is. Personally I believe once the PDO and AMO both go strongly negative, the sea ice will rebound and the oceans will cool, which are the drivers of our climate anyway. How much it will cool is unknown but there will be a gradual step down IMO
 

BHS1975

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It absolutely is and few scientists dispute we are in a warming period. The questions of what is causing it and the severity of its effects are where the rub is. Personally I believe once the PDO and AMO both go strongly negative, the sea ice will rebound and the oceans will cool, which are the drivers of our climate anyway. How much it will cool is unknown but there will be a gradual step down IMO
The current energy imbalance from GHG forcing is 0.87 W/m2 and will only continue to climb as we keep adding more GHG to the atmosphere. The oceans are soaking up most of that with OHC climbing steadily. I’m sure that will do wonders for the hurricane season.


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MichaelJ

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The current energy imbalance from GHG forcing is 0.87 W/m2 and will only continue to climb as we keep adding more GHG to the atmosphere. The oceans are soaking up most of that with OHC climbing steadily. I’m sure that will do wonders for the hurricane season.


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Do you mean they will be worse, more frequent or what exactly? History tells us a cold AMO results in LESS hurricanes and increases the tendency to recurve. There has been some excellent work done on the AMO impacts on hurricane season by Phil Klotzbach along with some good analysis from Judith Curry which help explain this
 

BHS1975

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Do you mean they will be worse, more frequent or what exactly? History tells us a cold AMO results in LESS hurricanes and increases the tendency to recurve. There has been some excellent work done on the AMO impacts on hurricane season by Phil Klotzbach along with some good analysis from Judith Curry which help explain this
Higher OHC would definitely mean stronger storms but not necessarily more.


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It absolutely is and few scientists dispute we are in a warming period. The questions of what is causing it and the severity of its effects are where the rub is. Personally I believe once the PDO and AMO both go strongly negative, the sea ice will rebound and the oceans will cool, which are the drivers of our climate anyway. How much it will cool is unknown but there will be a gradual step down IMO
When do you expect both will go strongly negative?
 

MichaelJ

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When do you expect both will go strongly negative?
I expect the AMO will in 2-3 years because it is already showing signs of being neutral to negative. The PDO is much more fickle and changes every 10 years or so while the AMO only changes every 25-30 years. Remember though, there is a lag time of 3-5 years for an actual decrease in ocean temps.
 

MichaelJ

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Higher OHC would definitely mean stronger storms but not necessarily more.


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Sure, anytime you have an increase in OHC you will see a co-responding potential increase of intensity. But if the AMO reduces the OHC by going negative, intensities should not go up but rather down.
 

BHS1975

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Sure, anytime you have an increase in OHC you will see a co-responding potential increase of intensity. But if the AMO reduces the OHC by going negative, intensities should not go up but rather down.
It’s just going to slightly slow down the rise and store more of the heat in the ocean only to release it later when it goes back positive increasing the rate of warming.



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MichaelJ

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It’s just going to slightly slow down the rise and store more of the heat in the ocean only to release it later when it goes back positive increasing the rate of warming.



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Sorry, I disagree with the feedback mechanisms often cited until the most important dynamic, clouds and water vapor, are factored in and understood, the amount of warming is just a guess and not scientific, just a models prediction based on incomplete information
 

MichaelJ

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In this case, I don't think he has any information that tells him that, mere conjecture on his part, he could be right and he could be wrong. Any solid science that indicated it will cool would be released immediately.
 
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In this case, I don't think he has any information that tells him that, mere conjecture on his part, he could be right and he could be wrong. Any solid science that indicated it will cool would be released immediately.
Unless the paradigm is going to shift for reasons they don’t want you to know.
 

BHS1975

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GaWx

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It is clearly evident that the globe is warming and it is affecting us locally, especially when averaged out (I’m not a “denier”), but this is an exaggerated far left garbage source with a blanket blame of extreme wx events on global warming:

“Food security is now an issue. Midwestern states have seen more than their share of floods and droughts. A recent derecho windstorm flattened 10 million acres of crops in several states. The Southwest is suffering from a megadrought. With changing climate, plant diseases and pests are on the move and pollinators are disappearing, as are natural enemies of pests.”

So, floods, droughts, and the recent derecho are all due to climate change? Really?

By the way, more CO2 has actually lead to longer growing seasons, growing further north, and more “plant food” so to speak as plants like CO2.

Why are you posting this far left crap?
 
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Avalanche

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People often forget pop icon Smashmouth was one of the first artists to get on board with global warming. Here is an excerpt from one of his first top 40 songs.

"But the meteor men beg to differ, judging by the hole in the satellite picture. The ice we skate is getting pretty thin, the water's getting warm so you might as well swim. My world's on fire, how bout yours? That's the way I like it and I'll never get bored.

To some of us, a warmer world is welcome and portrays fun, entertainment, and excitement.

To me, I wish he'd had wrote a song about Ole Man Winter.
 

BHS1975

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It is clearly evident that the globe is warming and it is affecting us locally, especially when averaged out (I’m not a “denier”), but this is an exaggerated far left garbage source with a blanket blame of extreme wx events on global warming:

“Food security is now an issue. Midwestern states have seen more than their share of floods and droughts. A recent derecho windstorm flattened 10 million acres of crops in several states. The Southwest is suffering from a megadrought. With changing climate, plant diseases and pests are on the move and pollinators are disappearing, as are natural enemies of pests.”

So, floods, droughts, and the recent derecho are all due to climate change? Really?

By the way, more CO2 has actually lead to longer growing seasons, growing further north, and more “plant food” so to speak as plants like CO2.

Why are you posting this far left crap?
AGW is absolutely the cause of more extreme weather events as they wouldn’t have occurred when they did in an unmodified atmosphere and cryosphere and the greening has no benefit as the plants grow faster and have less nutritional content because of it.


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