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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

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pcbjr said:
Not an opinion ... every day my local paper reports the historic high and low for each day going back to when records were kept here. (Yes. Larry, it is the Sun so that has to be factored into accurate reporting ... LOL) ... Notably, the record highs generally (in fact by large measure as reported in the paper for this time of year) are in the 1894 - 1899 range ... some wierd wether happened in 1899 winter wise, and the Model-T was just a dream then ... not an editorial, just saying that folks may get caught up in what they see today as opposed to ...
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Humans have been on the earth for a few short time period. Mother Earth warms then cools and warms etc until something like a asteroid hits it etc... Mother Earth does what she wants when she wants and we don’t need to try to tame her. Woman can’t be trained( thats what my wife says at least) men can tho( wife’s again).


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GaWx said:
Attached is the July of 2019 global temperature anomaly from the CFSv2 per WxBell. It has the global anomaly at only +0.305 C vs 1981-2010. What struck me as surprising in the map is how much of the CONUS is pretty solidly cooler than normal. So, I decided to investigate.

I looked at numerous US cities’ July, 2019, mean anomalies starting with some in SD and NE. Then when they almost all came in warmer than that CFSv2 showed, especially in the eastern halves of those states, I decided to expand my analysis to cities in states such as MN, IA, IL, AZ, CO, LA, AR, TN, MS, AL, GA, FL, and the Pacific coast states. I made sure I was comparing apples to apples such as making sure the normals were based on 1981-2010 and I converted from F to C. I found only a very small % that were close, mainly in AR (where the coolness verified pretty well) and FL (the @pcbjr (and for a short time my own) home of Gainesville did actually come in near -0.5 F). But the vast majority came in 1-2 F or even warmer than the CFSv2 map showed!

After seeing this, I found out from Radiant/Maxar that Moscow came in 3.6 cooler than its 1981-2010 normal. If you look closely at the map, Moscow is on the edge of the green, some of the coldest in the northern Hem. The edge of the green is -3 C or -5.4 F. Comparing the -5.4 F suggested by the map to the actual of -3.6 F tells me that even at Moscow it is close to 1.8 F too cool!

When you folks get a chance, check for yourself rather than take my word for it. Why is this so important? Because WxBell is essentially claiming based on this CFSv2 map that the globe was only 0.305 C warmer than the 1981-2010 globe average. But if one were to adjust for the average error in the too cool direction, the actual could very easily be more like 1 F warmer than +0.305 C. If so, that would bring the actual anomaly closer to +1 C vs 1981-2010 normals! Even if the average error in the map were only 0.5 F too cool, that would still be enough to warm the anomaly from +0.305 C to near +0.55 to +0.60 C. This is a big deal to me and should be investigated. I do not trust Weather Bell at all. I also do wonder about the methodologies of the CFSv2 to determine this map.

Any other opinions?View attachment 21431
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New development considering this CFSv2 map. Ryan Maue, the former employee of WxBell who actually was the guy who is responsible for first producing the CSFv2 anomalies maps, is saying in response to Roy Spencer that what he said is false because the July, 2019, CSFv2 anomalies map is flawed and therefore shouldn’t be used!!



To review what I said earlier in this thread, this CFSv2 map is overall significantly cooler than what official station data shows in many areas of the US like SD, NE, MN, IA, LA, TN, AZ and the west coast states among others as well as in Moscow, Russia. The issue is that those who claim July, 2019, was at or near the warmest month on record globally are basing it on ~+0.56 C anomaly vs 1981-2010 normals. In contrast, the CFSv2 map that Roy Spencer was touting shows only +0.305. Now we have the creator of that map with only +0.305 saying it has a major flaw and shouldn’t be used!

And now look what Spencer has added to his article:

“[NOTE: It turns out that the WMO, which announced July 2019 as a near-record, relies upon the ERA5 reanalysis which apparently departs substantially from the CFSv2 reanalysis, making my proposed reliance on only reanalysis data for surface temperature monitoring also subject to considerable uncertainty].”
 
GaWx said:
New development considering this CFSv2 map. Ryan Maue, the former employee of WxBell who actually was the guy who is responsible for first producing the CSFv2 anomalies maps, is saying in response to Roy Spencer that what he said is false because the July, 2019, CSFv2 anomalies map is flawed and therefore shouldn’t be used!!



To review what I said earlier in this thread, this CFSv2 map is overall significantly cooler than what official station data shows in many areas of the US like SD, NE, MN, IA, LA, TN, AZ and the west coast states among others as well as in Moscow, Russia. The issue is that those who claim July, 2019, was at or near the warmest month on record globally are basing it on ~+0.56 C anomaly vs 1981-2010 normals. In contrast, the CFSv2 map that Roy Spencer was touting shows only +0.305. Now we have the creator of that map with only +0.305 saying it has a major flaw and shouldn’t be used!

And now look what Spencer has added to his article:

“[NOTE: It turns out that the WMO, which announced July 2019 as a near-record, relies upon the ERA5 reanalysis which apparently departs substantially from the CFSv2 reanalysis, making my proposed reliance on only reanalysis data for surface temperature monitoring also subject to considerable uncertainty].”
Click to expand...


Nice detective work!


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The earth cools, the earth warms. Has so for billions of years. Climate is obviously one of the most complex systems known to man. Having been on earth for only 49 years I have learned one thing for sure. Mankind is extremely arrogant......I'm not a scientist so I tend to stay out of that end of the debate so I just stick with what I am pretty good at which is COMMON SENSE. According to may so called climate experts we were already supposed to be under water by now yet I look around and I don't see any of these politicians shoving carbon taxes down my throat selling their beachfront mansions. If we only have 10 years to live before the climate kills us all, I would think you could follow the money and see what a crock of dung this all is. I remember a few years back when Greg Fishel changed his mind about manmade climate change so he went to the arctic looking for answers to disappearing sea ice and global destruction. The scientist he went up there to visit pretty much told him to look around, he had nothing to fear, go back home and enjoy your life so The Fish went to Berkley California to get a second opinion. To sum it up.....its ok to want to treat the planet better (we all should) but you aren't going to die or starve to death and you have little to no control over what is happening now or in the future climate wise. Better to spend your valuable time adapting than arguing......
 
If you wanted to terraform a planet and make it much warmer you would add enormous amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere which is exactly what we’re doing. What’s happening now reminds me of that cringy alien movie Arrival with Charlie Sheen.


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Stole this from the other board. September departures going back to 2007. Not a single blade of grass is below average. So it's not just us who can't get a average September. There is no way we could pull this off without climate change. And this is against 1981-2010 norms, which are already high.Screenshot_20190912-200220_Chrome.jpg
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Stole this from the other board. September departures going back to 2007. Not a single blade of grass is below average. So it's not just us who can't get a average September. There is no way we could pull this off without climate change. And this is against 1981-2010 norms, which are already high.View attachment 23507
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1981-2010 normals are actually relatively cool specifically in winter when compared to previous decades . A lot of warming especially places west of the app mountains that cooled drastically 1960-1990 is just rebound . Winters we see today were common place in the 1930-1960 time period . Take a look at the NWS now data site if you don’t believe me .

Nashville winter averages 1981-2010 are over 1 degree colder than the entire por . Which shows 1981-2010 is a cooler period . Admittedly heavily skewed by the intensely cold 80s . That whole 1960-1990 period fits better in the early 1900s and 1800s than it does today.
 
The Arctic is back to being solidly warmer than normal after the typical summer respite at near normal:
A51B9698-FBD4-4B76-835C-D8851810DB29.png
 
cd0e93f1fc07d1069e17dd7e0377e738.jpg


It’s been warmer and colder in the past.


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