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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

ForsythSnow

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Good luck getting China to stop their emissions, and other developing countries too. The latest climate conference ended in disaster and no real progress on a solution. War and nuclear war is always a threat when you have rogue countries like N Korea, Russia or China who want to control the world.

Btw the green energy policies in CA have not been working out very well and the high taxes, regulations and other issues are significantly affecting things there now. I’ve read some articles where it’s suggested that the whole reason the electric company over there has dealt with fires and shutting power down is due to the green management policies forcing them to use maintenance funds to instead implement “green energy” instead of maintaining infrastructure. As a result now when major wind arrives people deal with 0 power for days and guess what they’re running for backup electricity? Yep, fossil fuel generators. If that’s what you want for all of America then that’s a huge step backwards imo.
Yeah California is ironically making their living worse due to their attempts to help which are being executed poorly. For a state with a powerhouse of an economy they sure are wasting a lot of money on things that aren't working. They're too focused or trying to get sustainable energy their mediums of delivery are failing. Maybe it's all dark marketing. Make the people suffer with power outages and force them to buy solar panels for their homes so they can pat themselves on the back for "going green". I really doubt that though. It's most likely them failing to maintain because of overspending on "green energy" that went nowhere.
 

BHS1975

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Nothing wrong with this map it’s just that it uses a much warmer climatology than most commonly used 1981-2010 baseline. Shifting that base period to 1987-2016 and including those 6 warm-very warm Decembers from 2011-16 and excluding those in the 80s does in fact make that much of a difference in the perceived anomaly. I personally think the weatherbell one is a more accurate representation of the current base state because we’ve already become significantly warmer than 1981-2010, at least in December anyway.

View attachment 28844
The thing is the climate is warming so fast that each “AN” December may actually just be the temporary normal because there’s not enough time for random chance to get a good average.


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I believe in GW. But how is it possible Greenland is melting when its always a +NAO and a big blue blob of below normal heights there all winter? It should grow so dang thick in the winter that it couldn't possibly melt in the summer.
 

SETNwx

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it's not really about belief. There is like science n crap that backs it up. It's pretty neat, you should check it out.
 

snowlover91

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After the lows we saw in ice earlier this year (2nd lowest), the ice extent has rebounded quite quickly. Taken from the Arctic sea ice forum, check out the cool chart/graph to see where we stand. So far the cold air placement has been favorable to allow consistent extent growth in all areas. Still a long ways to go though.

1577280832253.jpeg

1577280849896.jpeg
 

superjames1992

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I believe in GW. But how is it possible Greenland is melting when its always a +NAO and a big blue blob of below normal heights there all winter? It should grow so dang thick in the winter that it couldn't possibly melt in the summer.
I don’t know if it really matters how cold it gets there in the winter since it’s going to be cold enough to add to the ice cap, regardless. They need snow to fall to increase the thickness of the ice cap, though; cold alone doesn’t really do anything. What would cause increases in the ice cap is for snowfall in the winter to outweigh melting in the summer, and the balance has been tilted towards the later for the last couple centuries.
 

MichaelJ

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Right James, and the average temp in the winter has little to nothing to do with the ice mass. Even IF the temperature goes up 10 degrees on average during the winter, the melting increase would be insignificant. So let's say the average for the past 100 years has been -25 degrees in the winter, adding 10 degrees over a 20-30 year time span would bring it up to a toasty -15 and not much melting would go on then either. The summer temps would have to increase exponentially to decrease the ice pack to make any difference. As James pointed out, increased temps would also cause increased precip in the form of snow and that would maintain the ice mass to a large extent.
 

BHS1975

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This video gives a good picture of whats happening to the ice.




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MichaelJ

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This video gives a good picture of whats happening to the ice.




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Too bad we don't have that nice video representation from the 1920's and 30's to compare it to. Also, the many many times the Arctic was virtually ice free in recorded history has no video either. Let's see where this stands when the AMO goes negative in a few years and the warm water (which is what really melts the ice) has cooled after a 2-3 year lag.
 

BHS1975

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Too bad we don't have that nice video representation from the 1920's and 30's to compare it to. Also, the many many times the Arctic was virtually ice free in recorded history has no video either. Let's see where this stands when the AMO goes negative in a few years and the warm water (which is what really melts the ice) has cooled after a 2-3 year lag.
Ice free really? When was that? This graph shows otherwise.




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MichaelJ

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You do know there have been periods in our past when there was little IF ANY ice anywhere in the world right? Would you like to see a graph of temps for the past several million years? There are these things called ice ages and there are the intermittent periods of short duration (3-10,000 years) called interglacials where the temps warm and the ice sheets retreat. We happen to be in one of those now and have been for several thousand years and it will come to an end regardless of a .7C temperature increase so far this past 100+ years
 

BHS1975

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You do know there have been periods in our past when there was little IF ANY ice anywhere in the world right? Would you like to see a graph of temps for the past several million years? There are these things called ice ages and there are the intermittent periods of short duration (3-10,000 years) called interglacials where the temps warm and the ice sheets retreat. We happen to be in one of those now and have been for several thousand years and it will come to an end regardless of a .7C temperature increase so far this past 100+ years
Lol try 3C or more by 2100. The planet will be totally transformed. There’s no precedent in the rate of warming in the Earth’s history.


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snowlover91

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Lol try 3C or more by 2100. The planet will be totally transformed. There’s no precedent in the rate of warming in the Earth’s history.


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It’s been far warmer in the past on the earth vs now. And ice free too.

“Pollen from three subarctic sites in the Norwegian Sea, northern Iceland and Labrador Sea indicate that mid-Pliocene January temperatures in Norway, Iceland and southeastern Canada were 4 to 10°C warmer than today (Willard 1994). … Evidence of both mixed deciduous/coniferous and coniferous forests places mean July temperatures 10°C warmer than today [in Arctic Canada] (Vincent 1990). In addition, northwestern Alaska air and sea temperatures during peak Pliocene interglacials were considerably warmer than present, by 7 to 8°C, with no permafrost, and absent or severely limited sea ice (Carter et al. 1986; Kaufman and Brigham-Grette 1993).”

“The consensus among these proxies suggests that Arctic temperatures were ∼19 °C warmer during the Pliocene than at present, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼390 ppmv.”


“Pliocene Arctic Ocean summer SSTs were appreciably warmer than modern and seasonally sea-ice free conditions existed in some regions. … At Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake ‘‘E’’) in Siberia summer temperatures were 8°C warmer than modern and at Ellesmere Island, Canada, summer and MAT [mean annual temperatures] were 11.8°C and 18.3°C higher than today.”
[A] seasonally ice-free marginal and central Arctic Ocean was common … regionally during the early Holocene [6,000 to 10,000 years ago]. … Some species thought to be dependent on summer sea ice (e.g., polar bears) survived through these periods.”

Here is a chart that goes back 10k years.
1577407379187.jpeg
 

BHS1975

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It’s been far warmer in the past on the earth vs now. And ice free too.

“Pollen from three subarctic sites in the Norwegian Sea, northern Iceland and Labrador Sea indicate that mid-Pliocene January temperatures in Norway, Iceland and southeastern Canada were 4 to 10°C warmer than today (Willard 1994). … Evidence of both mixed deciduous/coniferous and coniferous forests places mean July temperatures 10°C warmer than today [in Arctic Canada] (Vincent 1990). In addition, northwestern Alaska air and sea temperatures during peak Pliocene interglacials were considerably warmer than present, by 7 to 8°C, with no permafrost, and absent or severely limited sea ice (Carter et al. 1986; Kaufman and Brigham-Grette 1993).”

“The consensus among these proxies suggests that Arctic temperatures were ∼19 °C warmer during the Pliocene than at present, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼390 ppmv.”


“Pliocene Arctic Ocean summer SSTs were appreciably warmer than modern and seasonally sea-ice free conditions existed in some regions. … At Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake ‘‘E’’) in Siberia summer temperatures were 8°C warmer than modern and at Ellesmere Island, Canada, summer and MAT [mean annual temperatures] were 11.8°C and 18.3°C higher than today.”
[A] seasonally ice-free marginal and central Arctic Ocean was common … regionally during the early Holocene [6,000 to 10,000 years ago]. … Some species thought to be dependent on summer sea ice (e.g., polar bears) survived through these periods.”

Here is a chart that goes back 10k years.
View attachment 29037

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/paleoclimate-the-end-of-the-holocene/


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BHS1975

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It’s been far warmer in the past on the earth vs now. And ice free too.

“Pollen from three subarctic sites in the Norwegian Sea, northern Iceland and Labrador Sea indicate that mid-Pliocene January temperatures in Norway, Iceland and southeastern Canada were 4 to 10°C warmer than today (Willard 1994). … Evidence of both mixed deciduous/coniferous and coniferous forests places mean July temperatures 10°C warmer than today [in Arctic Canada] (Vincent 1990). In addition, northwestern Alaska air and sea temperatures during peak Pliocene interglacials were considerably warmer than present, by 7 to 8°C, with no permafrost, and absent or severely limited sea ice (Carter et al. 1986; Kaufman and Brigham-Grette 1993).”

“The consensus among these proxies suggests that Arctic temperatures were ∼19 °C warmer during the Pliocene than at present, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were ∼390 ppmv.”


“Pliocene Arctic Ocean summer SSTs were appreciably warmer than modern and seasonally sea-ice free conditions existed in some regions. … At Lake El’gygytgyn (Lake ‘‘E’’) in Siberia summer temperatures were 8°C warmer than modern and at Ellesmere Island, Canada, summer and MAT [mean annual temperatures] were 11.8°C and 18.3°C higher than today.”
[A] seasonally ice-free marginal and central Arctic Ocean was common … regionally during the early Holocene [6,000 to 10,000 years ago]. … Some species thought to be dependent on summer sea ice (e.g., polar bears) survived through these periods.”

Here is a chart that goes back 10k years.
View attachment 29037
Sea lvls where 10-22m higher too. Going back to the Pliocene is not a good thing and it just gets worse beyond that. Large mammals like us wouldn’t survive in a hothouse state.


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SETNwx

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These arguments using very old natural climate change events are red herrings and in utterly bad faith. Our current extreme climate change event is mostly man-made and happening in hundreds of years rather than thousands, tens of thousands or millions of years. So silly.
 

MichaelJ

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These arguments using very old natural climate change events are red herrings and in utterly bad faith. Our current extreme climate change event is mostly man-made and happening in hundreds of years rather than thousands, tens of thousands or millions of years. So silly.
You call .3-.7C over a hundred years increase extreme? Now who is acting in bad faith?
 

BHS1975

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You call .3-.7C over a hundred years increase extreme? Now who is acting in bad faith?
Try over 1C at this point since the 1880s and yes thats extreme, especially considering most of the warming was over the last 35 years.


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BHS1975

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Good observation. Yes, it is mainly the lows rather than the highs that are so mild, which has been a common thing throughout the E US during the 2010s warmth throughout the year. On this 0Z EPS, RDU is about 5 AN overall but with the lows about 8 AN (~39 vs 31 normal) and the highs only about 2 AN (~52 vs 50 normal).
This is exactly what I would expect from more long wave radiation getting trapped in the troposphere.


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WEATHERBOYROY

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Try over 1C at this point since the 1880s and yes thats extreme, especially considering most of the warming was over the last 35 years.


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I'm sorry brother, but I'm not impressed with 1 degree c ... considering their average temp, and ice melts at 32 degrees f . I think you polar ice cap melting boys need to be looking at the sun. If there is truly this issue, 1 degree c (1.8 degrees f) isn't the culprit. I know you can remember days that you got snow and the temp stayed well below freezing but the snow melted where the sun shine on it? At the same time in the shade of the forest the snow didn't melt? Also, you probably remember days when the snow fell, the temp went to 1 degee c and it was overcast ...the snow melted very little. It's got to be the sun,(or lack of cloud cover ) that affects melt in that region because the temps are so cold.
 

snowlover91

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This news article from 2004 warned we would face catastrophe in the next 20 years and by 2020 would see a Siberian climate in Britain along with other catastrophic scenarios. As 2019 comes to a close and 2020 is only a few days away.... well let’s just say there is 0 evidence for this predicted catastrophe 15 years later.

Climate change over the next 20 years could result in a global catastrophe costing millions of lives in wars and natural disasters..
A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a 'Siberian' climate by 2020. Nuclear conflict, mega-droughts, famine and widespread rioting will erupt across the world.
The document predicts that abrupt climate change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water and energy supplies. The threat to global stability vastly eclipses that of terrorism, say the few experts privy to its contents”
 

Broken024

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I'm sorry brother, but I'm not impressed with 1 degree c ... considering their average temp, and ice melts at 32 degrees f . I think you polar ice cap melting boys need to be looking at the sun. If there is truly this issue, 1 degree c (1.8 degrees f) isn't the culprit. I know you can remember days that you got snow and the temp stayed well below freezing but the snow melted where the sun shine on it? At the same time in the shade of the forest the snow didn't melt? Also, you probably remember days when the snow fell, the temp went to 1 degee c and it was overcast ...the snow melted very little. It's got to be the sun,(or lack of cloud cover ) that affects melt in that region because the temps are so cold.
Roy from Alabama is smarter than science.
 
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