Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

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Is this Kirk's remnants in the Central Caribbean?
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You can see on the FV3 at D10, while it never really gets anything going, until a couple of frames later and ots, the mess down there and as SD mentioned a couple days back, could be multiple vorticies fighting for dominance.

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12Z GFS lackluster but very subtle low level trough approaches FL from the east 10/10 with ample moisture and wind surge; this coincides with area Euro weakly develops near there in face of low shear and well above normal SSTs; an area to watch for around 10/10 in future runs, especially with it being south of a very strong 500 mb high; not a concern but more of a curiosity; even the lowly 12Z CMC has a very weak low then going into FL.

12Z GEFS has several members as TD or TS near or on FL E coast 10/11-13 fwiw. Let’s see whether or not the Euro still has some kind of mess near FL then.

*Edit: Euro not doing much near FL 10/10-13 but there continues to be good moisture flowing off the Atlantic below the anomalous upper high. Still going to watch this area for this period.
 
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One similarity today, all the models weakened development. Not often do we get to say they all did something in the same trend direction. :D:rolleyes:o_O. Although it might be short-lived...LOL
 
I count either 6 or 7 of the 51 members hitting FL with a H (1 or 2 on 10/10 and 5 on 10/14-6) and 1 H hitting LA on 10/15. Pretty active to say the least but only fwiw. 1 hits Miami on 10/10 from the south whereas the other 5-6 hit the west coast between Apalach and Tampa. The Miami one actually goes back over the far NE GOM and then curls back into FL (Big Bend) as a H again.
 
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GaWx said:
Don't shoot the model and don't shoot Oct climo. ;)
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I don't shoot anybody (except perhaps an armed intruder after midnight who is liberating the inside of my house in the name of God knows who or what, and then only if 911 isn't rapid response ... o_O) ... and on a more serious note ... it surely can and could and does happen this time of year; it's almost like severe ... a collision of forces, except the genesis is over warm water rather than a corn field ... ;)
 
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pcbjr said:
I don't shoot anybody (except perhaps an armed intruder after midnight who is liberating the inside of my house in the name of God knows who or what, and then only if 911 isn't rapid response ... o_O) ... and on a more serious note ... it surely can and could and does happen this time of year; it's almost like severe ... a collision of forces, except the genesis is over warm water rather than a corn field ... ;)
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Weak, strong, weak, strong....06z pushes it out a few more days for Leslie to move on.

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0z models starts off developing storm pushing into gulf. CMC/FV3 has it so far. Gfs has it but weaker than the others.
 
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Everybody in on it......Euro pushed east after initially placed with the rest.

Timing is faster compared to yesterday. 10th, 12th, 13th....Euro final on the 14th.

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