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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

Henry2326 said:
So, the water is hot....is it shear that's keeping it tapped down in intensity? "I'm gonna learn today"....as Kevin Hart says.
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I wouldn't get to caught up on intensity atm, especially with a system that has yet to develop plus we saw just how difficult intensity is to forecast with Florence (thankfully in the other direction with her). If/when it develops you might see a different picture painted by the models
 
metwannabe said:
I wouldn't get to caught up on intensity atm, especially with a system that has yet to develop plus we saw just how difficult intensity is to forecast with Florence (thankfully in the other direction with her). If/when it develops you might see a different picture painted by the models
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Thanks a ton!!!!
 
Henry2326 said:
So, the water is hot....is it shear that's keeping it tapped down in intensity? "I'm gonna learn today"....as Kevin Hart says.
Click to expand...

A lot of moving parts in this setup depends on which solution you buy.

Right now I'm still buying the ridge lasting longer than modeled. So if we get a storm I would think LA and MS as landfall areas. So intensity wise you have a much higher chance of continental dry air intrusion and with the trough out west, probable increasing SW shear as you near landfall with shallower shelf water. This is why an intensifying TC hitting these areas are so rare.

However, if you buy the ridge breaking down you get that NW movement to the quick pull NE. That will increase forward speed and also align the movement with the increasing shear, effectively nullifying it. It also would hit the western coast of FL and wouldn't have to deal with the dry air intrusion. Charley comes to mind.
 
Henry2326 said:
So, the water is hot....is it shear that's keeping it tapped down in intensity? "I'm gonna learn today"....as Kevin Hart says.
Click to expand...
This is not a direct answer, but a thought sincerely shared ...
There is a great link in our Wiki in Tropical>Models ... "Spaghetti Models" - Mike's Weather Page - Massive Tropical Info
Watching that link daily (shear, SST etc.), is a good way to visually "learn" over time how to connect some dots ... in my humble estimation watching a bunch of factors and what ultimately happens as they congeal, or don't, is just as great a teaching/learning tool as a text book ...
Humbly,
Your Curmudgeon
 
pcbjr said:
This is not a direct answer, but a thought sincerely shared ...
There is a great link in our Wiki in Tropical>Models ... "Spaghetti Models" - Mike's Weather Page - Massive Tropical Info
Watching that link daily (shear, SST etc.), is a good way to visually "learn" over time how to connect some dots ... in my humble estimation watching a bunch of factors and what ultimately happens as they congeal, or don't, is just as great a teaching/learning tool as a text book ...
Humbly,
Your Curmudgeon
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Thank you wise one! :) go there many times a day trying to connect dots! Great dataset! Actually googled wind shear today and MJO yesterday! I'be read about opal, Wilma, and Charley. Still looking for a past example that will help me connect a link...."if x happens, then y is a result". o_O
 
Henry2326 said:
connect a link...."if x happens, then y is a result".
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You do that with weather and well, you're supernatural ... :p
... but actually, narrowing possibilities to a reasoned and reasonable finite set, and not just grabbing on to some model, is a real asset to have ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
... but actually, narrowing possibilities to a reasoned and reasonable finite set, and not just grabbing on to some model, is a real asset to have ... :cool:
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....hurricane Nate, October 2017. :rolleyes:;)
The first is forecast several days out...
The second is the change in models as it got closer...
The third is what happened.
Looks like different versions we've been watching over the past couple of days.

"Impinging vertical wind shear" stopped intensification before landfall.

Nate.0.jpg
174129-5day-cone-no-line-and-windjpg-718fa286189bb865.jpg 171006235726-hurricane-nate-path-100617-2350-super-tease.jpg
 
Henry2326 said:
....hurricane Nate, October 2017. :rolleyes:;)
The first is forecast several days out...
The second is the change in models as it got closer...
The third is what happened.
Looks like different versions we've been watching over the past couple of days.

"Impinging vertical wind shear" stopped intensification before landfall.

View attachment 6663
View attachment 6664 View attachment 6665
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I was in the bullseye on the early cones, that was the reasons for the big shift W , as final outcome!
Great post !
 
Per the FV3 06Z run Leslie scrapes Spain/Portugal beforing heading to the UK.... what a weird storm but interesting to watch

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_atl_36.png
 
Eloise 9/23/75 955 MB 125 mph
Opal 10/6/95 . 916 mb 150 mph
Agnes 6/23/72. 977 MB. 85 mph
Florence 9/26/53. 968 MB 115 mph. Landfall 80 mph
Flossy 9/30/56 . 974 MB 90 mph...2 landfall...mouth of MS river and Ft. Walton/Destin, FL

Today's 12z GFS looks like Agnes!

Consistent development:
Opal and Eloise - turned northeastward in response to STRONG TROUGH. Combination of warm sea surface temperature associated with an unusually warm pocket of warm ocean water and an upper level high pressure overbthr gulf of Mexico.
Agnes- developed from interaction of a POLAR FRONT and an upper TROUGH. Upper trough moved east, wind shear decreased. 19" of rain on Pennsylvania.
Florence - intensity decreased because of colder water temperature and cool air.
Flossy - dropped 10-16 inches of rain in the Southeast path.

1_ecqpKJoWoMp3ZgMwvBYYAg.png
at197202.gif
at195308.gif
at195607.gif
 
The 12Z EPS has many members with the genesis of a second TC south of Jamaica next Friday. Many of these members then move NW into the E Gulf with several as Hs! I suspect we may have another thread on this next week. We’ll see. Get plenty of sleep this weekend as we may need it in preparation for the next 2 weeks or so!
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has many members with the genesis of a second TC south of Jamaica next Friday. Many of these members then move NW into the E Gulf with several as Hs! I suspect we may have another thread on this next week. We’ll see. Get plenty of sleep this weekend as we may need it in preparation for the next 2 weeks or so!
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Larry,
Please. Stop this ... :(
Phil
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has many members with the genesis of a second TC south of Jamaica next Friday. Many of these members then move NW into the E Gulf with several as Hs! I suspect we may have another thread on this next week. We’ll see. Get plenty of sleep this weekend as we may need it in preparation for the next 2 weeks or so!
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Fortunately it's just the Euro and EPS, but the EPS has more strong hurricanes for that storm than 91L
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Please. Stop this ... :(
Phil
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I have to agree with Phil here! Just landed in Miramar Beach till next Sunday on vacation. Where I’m from, we struggle with 2 inches of snow, can’t imagine we would hang around if a cane barrels this way.
 
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