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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

More on the 51 member 0Z EPS, which was much more active than any earlier run, along with Oct. 1-10 genesis climo:

13 H landfalls on FL (in addition to several TSs):
- 5 Panhandle
- 5 Apalachicola to N of Tampa (includes Big Bend)
- 2 Tampa-Sarasota area
- 1 south tip

Not to be ignored, it also has 3 landfalls on LA (in addition to 2 TSs):
- 1 LA/MS border on 10/10
- 1 W LA 10/13
- 1 central LA 10/15

Tracks of TC with genesis 10/1-10 1851-2015:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png
Favors a NE mover over FL but a significant 2nd max (just like the 0Z EPS has) moving N to NE over LA, especially central and eastern LA.
 
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GaWx said:
More on the 0Z EPS along with Oct. 1-10 genesis climo:

13 H landfalls on FL
- 5 Panhandle
- 5 Apalachicola to N of Tampa (includes Big Bend)
- 2 Tampa-Sarasota area
- 1 south tip

Not to be ignored, it also has 3 landfalls on LA:
- 1 LA/MS border on 10/10
- 1 W LA 10/13
- 1 central LA 10/15

Tracks of TC with genesis 10/1-10 1851-2015:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png
Favors a NE mover over FL but a significant 2nd max (just like the 0Z EPS has) moving N to NE over LA, especially central and eastern LA.
Click to expand...
Yep. Not a pretty sight for FL on this EPS run. As you mentioned, climo points to a more likely hit to FL, but there is a noticeable curve where the storms end up down the road based on landfall from the climo map, and the models reflected that this morning.
eps_cyclones_atlantic_360_2018100400.png

On a side note, this storm, should it form and become named, would be Michael, or another M storm. Last 2 years, the M storms have been category 5s and retired, so here's to hoping that isn't the case and we don't continue.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yep. Not a pretty sight for FL on this EPS run. As you mentioned, climo points to a more likely hit to FL, but there is a noticeable curve where the storms end up down the road based on landfall from the climo map, and the models reflected that this morning.
eps_cyclones_atlantic_360_2018100400.png

On a side note, this storm, should it form and become named, would be Michael, or another M storm. Last 2 years, the M storms have been category 5s and retired, so here's to hoping that isn't the case and we don't continue.
Click to expand...
Just about all those members would be good rainmakers for mby, fingers crossed! A nice juicy TS through the FL panhandle, give me a good 3-5”, then some fall-feeling weather afterwards!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just about all those members would be good rainmakers for mby, fingers crossed! A nice juicy TS through the FL panhandle, give me a good 3-5”, then some fall-feeling weather afterwards!
Click to expand...
Your target is all wrong. You want to be on the east side of the storm for the most rain. The ideal location would be an AL or MS or even a LA hit then curving though N GA. However, since I don't want another TC through here after last year, I'm going to have to reject your desires for rain and tell you that fronts are going to start providing after the storm passes anyway.

The CMC illustrates this nicely.
gem_apcpn_seus_40.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just about all those members would be good rainmakers for mby, fingers crossed! A nice juicy TS through the FL panhandle, give me a good 3-5”, then some fall-feeling weather afterwards!
Click to expand...
If that scenario play out what could we see in Columbia SC with a deep onshore flow all week?
 
12z CMC injected a curve more like the Euro but not as far east. ICON joining the party with curve to FL, between Apalachicola and Tampa.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
If that scenario play out what could we see in Columbia SC with a deep onshore flow all week?
Click to expand...
Anytime the low/ TS goes to your West, you should be in the sweet pot for rain, but unfortunately, severe also. Even a depression going over Athens / Aikens GA area, could easily be 3-5”+, depending on speed. We have along way to go, just keep an eye open
 
Tarheel1 said:
Anytime the low/ TS goes to your West, you should be in the sweet pot for rain, but unfortunately, severe also. Even a depression going over Athens / Aikens GA area, could easily be 3-5”+, depending on speed. We have along way to go, just keep an eye open
Click to expand...
If it stalls before hitting land like some models have suggested, there could easily be a multi day rain event due to the moisture flow ahead of the storm. That could bring even more rain than 3 to 5 inches in places. However, if it goes further east, the flow will remain off to the west to areas that don't need it like coastal SC and NC.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If it stalls before hitting land like some models have suggested, there could easily be a multi day rain event due to the moisture flow ahead of the storm. That could bring even more rain than 3 to 5 inches in places. However, if it goes further east, the flow will remain off to the west to areas that don't need it like coastal SC and NC.
Click to expand...
Honestly we could use the rain here in coastal SC we average an inch from Hurricane Florence many areas received more further north Up the coast like Myrtle beach.
 
The 12Z GEFS is the most active yet with out of 21 members:

- 8 FL TS+ hits (4 H, 4 TS) all Pensacola to Tampa
- 4 LA hits (1 H, 3 TS) with 2 of those also hitting MS/AL
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is the most active yet with out of 21 members:

- 8 FL TS+ hits (4 H, 4 TS) all Pensacola to Tampa
- 4 LA hits (1 H, 3 TS) with 2 of those also hitting MS/AL
Click to expand...
Larry,
Any good news to share this afternoon? ... LOL
Best!
Phil
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GEFS is the most active yet with out of 21 members:

- 8 FL TS+ hits (4 H, 4 TS) all Pensacola to Tampa
- 4 LA hits (1 H, 3 TS) with 2 of those also hitting MS/AL
Click to expand...

So, the water is hot....is it shear that's keeping it tapped down in intensity? "I'm gonna learn today"....as Kevin Hart says.
 
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