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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

The 12z Icon is faster yet the low moves further north before turn.
Honestly the TRACK all depends on the speed of the Tropical Cyclone.
 
as if there wasn't enough to talk about...

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the western
Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Environmental conditions are expected
to support some gradual development after that time while the system
moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Wonder with the front pushing through after Michael passes as well as the upwelling of cooler waters if this next system would be anywhere as strong as Michael. Let's just pray that we do not see anything develop from this system!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I was in the bullseye on the early cones, that was the reasons for the big shift W , as final outcome!
Great post !
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Nate gave me a bunch of rain and a near miss from a tornado. Looking back at the radar from that day, I think the couplet either went right over me or less than a mile away, but the tornado was not touching down at the time.
 
k0skinne said:
Wonder with the front pushing through after Michael passes as well as the upwelling of cooler waters if this next system would be anywhere as strong as Michael. Let's just pray that we do not see anything develop from this system!
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I believe, jmo, that the waters are warm enough that upwelling will have minimal effect should another cyclone make its way up the gulf. Appears that the next pattern sets up the week of 10/21.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Until an invest is declared or it gets to 40%+, this is merely model cartoons. I was tempted to say that with the disturbance thread but held back.
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There is one thing we can be certain about any kind of forecast. They are always wrong in some aspect. I consider that with weather, business, financial, or political forecast. But I would say that without them, we know even less. Most can show historical patterns, possibilities, or even an outlier possibility that has not been considered or prepared for.
Obviously, this country has a very real and dangerous problem in communicating dire and critical weather threats. The fear to be wrong, which is probable and has happened, has slowed communication to the point that a real short term threat is ineffective at communication. We are about to see how ineffective in the coming weeks once the death toll from Michael comes to light. The fact that a wealthy progressive nation has a death toll at all from a hurricane is beyond me.
So cartoon or not, getting better at this should be front and center and should be the number one priorty of the weather community. Michael may be the critical failure that propels a spotlight to improve forecast and communication...let's hope so.

P.S. I might add that the model up top is very similar to the last storm in a trend of storms in 1842. History repeats itself. Gordon, Florence, Michael, storm that hits Spain....now this last storm to come in the pattern. I don't know if it will happen or not, but there is risk. Its all about preparation for risk. Maybe the area at the GA/FL line will be prepared since Michael....I really doubt it since they watch the guy on tv to tell them what to do and we know how ineffective that's been.

P.S.S. I thought this was a global model run discussion board about forecast, not a lets only talk about it when it happens board.
 
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Just something to keep an eye on but with these fronts dropping through and hanging up in the GOM you always have to watch out for tropical mischief.... such as this. It's weak, one run and a long ways out but not 360 hrs out.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png
 
metwannabe said:
Just something to keep an eye on but with these fronts dropping through and hanging up in the GOM you always have to watch out for tropical mischief.... such as this. It's weak, one run and a long ways out but not 360 hrs out.....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png
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GFS throws 2 opportunities last night, this one and another, same pattern, over the 15 day period. It continues to show up. Interesting also, this is the last storm in the 1842 pattern also. Low from Texas crossing FL, up the east coast. It it happens, I'm gonna get out my history book. Lol
P.S. THE wild ride out there between 10/25 and 11/1, says to me "beware, possibilities abound. Something unpleasant has an opportunity to develop. Are you prepared for the risk?" It softened a little bit in the 12z today.
 
FV3 showing some funky tropical mischief around the same time in the same location, even runs a system up the EC (although I'm not 100% certain it's fully a tropical system)..... again just something to keep an eye on but the GFS has been decent in sniffing out threats in the long range before.
 
Way out there, but conditions favorable for something to spin up down there near the Hebert box. This time period seems ready to do something.

Screenshot_20181015-142951.jpg
 
And 12Z Euro comes along with CMC a little sooner....wonder if UKmet likes the conditions...anyone have it?

Screenshot_20181015-153956.jpg
 
Anything that does form will have a ton of dry air to deal with near the coast.


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Arcc said:
Look at 500mb. That is a shortwave induced non-tropical low.

Edit: in fact a beautiful Miller A that we would be squealing about in the dead of winter.
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I thought the same thing . “ damn if this were mid February “

Only a matter of time . We are getting closer and closer


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The models really believe this is going to form, but the troughs will keep it far OTS.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean is associated with a surface trough. This trough is
expected to move slowly northward over the next few days into an
area where environmental conditions are forecast to be more
conducive for development. A tropical or subtropical depression
could form over the weekend while the system turns westward well to
the northeast of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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