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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

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From Wx Underground
 
Webberweather53 said:
Of arguably more concern, with the ITCZ generally progressing equatorward in the summer hemisphere, the rainy season will make a triumphant return in Central America, and thus there's going to be a major uptick in large-scale upward motion over the Western Hemisphere as we turn the page into October. The JMA, GEFS, & EPS all agree on this transpiring, and it'll likely piggy-back onto one of the pre-existing Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) that's currently in the eastern hemisphere. The chance of a tropical cyclone forming in either the Northeastern Pacific, Caribbean Sea, and/or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the first half of October will be much higher than climatology given how convectively active Central America is forecast to become. This will be something to watch in the coming weeks.

JMA
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GFS Ensemble
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EPS
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I mentioned the possibility of TCG in the W Caribbean a few weeks ago given large-scale forcing in place, I really don't have much to add to what was noted a few weeks ago until a consolidated area of low pressure begins to develop. TCG off the monsoon gyre is very difficult to forecast even in the medium range because there's usually a significant element of convective feedback and interference with the monsoon gyre's own circulation, and other areas of low pressure within the gyre competing for moisture fluxes, upward motion, etc., and topographically forced convection/vorticity that all may easily mask or reinforce a pre-existing infantile circulation.
 
NCSNOW said:
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Yep, this scenario has shown up several times in the past 3 days. The other option that has shown up several times has been the Apalachicola area, crossing into GA (Navgem 00z). The 06z for FV3 is the first time its pushed that far west and strong.
 
Models aren't going to be anywhere close right now in this situation until something actually develops.... this isn't a wave we're tracking it's waiting for development, where, when, etc have massive implications for later. With that said, this is the Global model run discussion so I'll add that the EPS seems to like the S. Fl to GOM idea atm
 
metwannabe said:
Models aren't going to be anywhere close right now in this situation until something actually develops.... this isn't a wave we're tracking it's waiting for development, where, when, etc have massive implications for later. With that said, this is the Global model run discussion so I'll add that the EPS seems to like the S. Fl to GOM idea atm
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Thank you; it needed saying, soberly ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
I mentioned the possibility of TCG in the W Caribbean a few weeks ago given large-scale forcing in place, I really don't have much to add to what was noted a few weeks ago until a consolidated area of low pressure begins to develop. TCG off the monsoon gyre is very difficult to forecast even in the medium range because there's usually a significant element of convective feedback and interference with the monsoon gyre's own circulation, and other areas of low pressure within the gyre competing for moisture fluxes, upward motion, etc., and topographically forced convection/vorticity that all may easily mask or reinforce a pre-existing infantile circulation.
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Any of the models had better success in the past of forecasting this area?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I mentioned the possibility of TCG in the W Caribbean a few weeks ago given large-scale forcing in place, I really don't have much to add to what was noted a few weeks ago until a consolidated area of low pressure begins to develop. TCG off the monsoon gyre is very difficult to forecast even in the medium range because there's usually a significant element of convective feedback and interference with the monsoon gyre's own circulation, and other areas of low pressure within the gyre competing for moisture fluxes, upward motion, etc., and topographically forced convection/vorticity that all may easily mask or reinforce a pre-existing infantile circulation.
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Thank you!! I'm learning every day!! :)
 
Since yesterday evening through this morning ... animated (though I had to make it "smaller" to post, so you may have to option or control/click to make it run ??? ... control/click on a Mac) ....

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

If it won't animate for someone, here's the link, but the link is not static so the image will change on the link down the road ... http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/SatelliteLoop/hiatlsat_None_anim.gif
 
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ForsythSnow said:
And again with the paint maps he goes.

Also, as mentioned, the EPS is mainly in the Gulf. A few nasty members too.
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Personally, I would go with a more western track. Until the thing dies, you have to go with the ridge staying strong in the long range which would mean a WNW to NW track across the Central/eastern GOM.
 
BHS1975 said:
By looking at the latest visible loop there might be a depression soon.


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Right now there is no evidence of a surface circulation anywhere so I don't think we see any upgrades. There appears to be a spin in the mid levels but right now it hasn't worked down to the surface.
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