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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

Double trouble?? Man watching these images is like watching a flame it's mesmerizing... wish I new how to post the animated loops

tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1_20170815151500.gif
 
Gfs developing what would be 93l this run . Has door open to the right and should go OTS


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The model GFS/Euro consensus for what is still in western Africa and may become Invest 93L down the road is for a recurve well east of the CONUS fwiw. I know, I know wait for it to become a TC first (assuming it does) or at least wait til it gets over water. This is mainly for documentation purposes.
 
Interestingly, although the overwhelming consensus of the 12Z models including ensemble members was for an easy recurve well east of the CONUS of the wave currently over W Africa (maybe future 93L), the 18Z GFS due to solid ridging further west in the W Atlantic has this go all of the way to near Puerto Rico at hour 180.

Edit: However, this still recurves well est of the CONUS near 72W.
 
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12z cmc has one moving into the gulf and one moving NW towards the US thanks to a building ridge
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GFS VS CMC :
GFS - flattens everything and says what development?
gfs_mslp_wind_atl_21.png

CMC - Develops everything. Takes 91 into Yucatan, 92 through the islands and into the Gulf, and to be 93 OTS like Gert. Hervey, Irma, and Jose there.
gem_mslp_wind_atl_21.png
 
By day ten the Cmc has 93L heading almost due west underneath the ridge headed for the east coast
c44b5fd5641e396dced00077974b1260.png



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