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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

The last model map overlays upper level (200mb wind vectors) with precipitation and Kelvin filtered Velocity potential @ 200 hPa, in increments of 0.5 sigma (blue = 0.5 sigma, dark blue = -1.0 sigma, light purple = -1.5 sigma, etc & similarly for + Kelvin filtered VP)
 
46e7182f77b9e7a0c516104a6179397f.png



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gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_43.png
Hope this doesn't start the west movement, closer this run. Still longe range.
 
2am TWO. Assuming TD 8 is Gert this will be Harvey if it forms

A tropical wave that has just emerged off the west coast of Africa
is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge
with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development of the system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Euro waits til it gets further west to develop and has a storm(not very strong though) in the SE Bahamas at day 9 moving towards Florida

At Day 10 its just SE of Miami at 1003 mb on the tropical tidbits maps
 
More eye opening discussion from HM regarding recent Atlantic TC activity and its relevance and interaction with the background warming climate
Screen Shot 2017-08-13 at 9.35.44 AM.png
Screen Shot 2017-08-13 at 9.36.01 AM.png
Screen Shot 2017-08-13 at 9.36.52 AM.png
 
What a season so far, and it hasn't even peaked. The Euro made a comeback and is leading so far, but if we get Gert as a strong TS with TD8, the CMC will take the lead. It is strange seeing the CMC doing so well this year from a model that used to do so poorly. Must have had a proper upgrade unlike the GFS.
 
90% of hurricanes and US threats occur beyond this date

:weenie:

In fact last 2 seasons the hurricane of the season was around October 1...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Thats an interesting stat considering the season is 40% over.
Click to expand...

The season is hardly 10% over wrt overall activity...
We don't reach the 40% mark until the first week of September and while that doesnt seem too far away, a lot of TC activity is normally condensed into the next several weeks...
peakofseason.gif
 
When my boys were 6 and 3, we realized at Christmas they were paying too much attention to wrapped presents. So, we started wrapping extra empty boxes and they'd open them, to find nothing. Then they'd come upon a box that had something special inside of it. They learned something invaluable. It reminds me of the tropical models this year ... FWIW
 
If the euro is right won't be tracking just 91L lol

And everyone knows the real hurricane season rarely starts before August 15th or so august 15 to October 15 pretty much is it
 
Brent said:
If the euro is right won't be tracking just 91L lol

And everyone knows the real hurricane season rarely starts before August 15th or so august 15 to October 15 pretty much is it
Click to expand...
Actually, we won't be tracking 91L at all. It would be 92L that forms right in front of it, then 93L. 91L just dissipates after some time on 12Z.
 
UKMET develops both 91L & what's liable to be future 92L to its west and the next wave behind it by day 5-6 and thus has 3 TCs simultaneously in the MDR
ukm2.2017082000.144.lant.troplant.n850.fcst.gentracker.png


The European develops the broad monsoon low in front of 91L, doesnt develop 91L, but then develops the next wave behind it
ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png

The CMC briefly develops the system in front of 91L, destroys 91L and then produces a TC from the next AEW immediately behind 91L
gem_z850_vort_atl_22.png

The GFS now caved to the Euro/UKMET solution and develops the system in front of 91L but shows nothing thereafter
gfs_z850_vort_atl_9.png

The JMA on the other hand develops the system in front of 91L, and the next 2 waves behind it, thus also leaving the Atlantic with 3 TCs at once like the UKMET although it got there much differently...
jma_mslp_uv850_atl_9.png

Big takeaway here: As is usually the case with TCs that come out of the monsoon trough, the global models are having a very difficult time picking out which disturbance to hone in on, which means deterministic and even ensemble solutions are bound to vary wildly for the next several days until a TC has developed or is very close to doing so. While the models are liable to remain inconsistent til then, that doesn't mean they're necessarily mean that the uncertainty is so high that we can assume nothing will transpire (which seems very unlikely atm) or negate the fact that the large scale environment is very conducive to TCG and intensification over the Atlantic MDR. As I mentioned in another thread, details like this matter in the long run for the US, and as the planetary wave configuration reshuffles and ridging begins to dominate eastern North America by week 2, all individuals should remain vigilant for rapidly changing weather conditions and forecasts as we're liable to see a heightened amount of tropical cyclone activity over the western Atlantic
 
This CCKW passing over the eastern Atlantic and 91L is an absolute monster, don't see 3.0 sigma CCKWs but once maybe twice a year over a given location... It's co-existence w/ an MJO pulse over the western hemisphere is largely to blame for this CCKW having such profound amplitude
Screen Shot 2017-08-14 at 9.15.01 AM.png
 
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