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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

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While many are currently transfixed on the disturbance in the eastern MDR, there's certainly a window, albeit a small one, for the remnants of 97L to make a run at the US in the longer term. If it manages to develop quickly and become a formidable cyclone in the Western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche/central Gulf, there's a very legitimate chance for it to get drawn northward towards the Texas &/or Louisiana coastlines as we'll have a decent break in the Azores Bermuda & Southern Rockies subtropical ridge bridge imparted by a trough over the central US. A decent hurricane, being steered by a deeper layer of the atmosphere, would be liable to "feel" the weakness between these ridges more than a tropical storm/depression and creep northward, and vis versa. Chances are obviously much higher atm for this to remain weaker and plow into Mexico, but the opportunity could certainly present itself for this to take a run at the US western Gulf coast, and again if it does directly impact the US it would likely be a strong TC due to the small details in the large-scale steering flow...
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Definitely worth noting quite a few EPS members are trying to develop the wave behind 99L that's currently over central Africa... This season is only getting started...
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There's a lot of GEFS members showing a non-negligible/decent area of broad low pressure yet again in the monsoon trough off Africa in 3-4 days, this time in association with the big African Easterly Wave behind 99L
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Lesson learn for me, never go ahead of yourself expecting the worse and jumping ahead with model watching with Hurricanes, when there's no storm to begin with.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol! But I think the Euro one is a little inaccurate this year, unless it is writing everything off lol.
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Well the only storm the Euro hasn't written off thus far this year in the Atlantic was Cindy and that turned out to be the largest/most intense one thus far and it seems to have done well picking up on 99L not developing while virtually all other guidance was on board w/ development (at least for a while) and 90L, which appears poised to become a TC in the Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and/or Bay of Campeche...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well the only storm the Euro hasn't written off thus far this year in the Atlantic was Cindy and that turned out to be the largest/most intense one thus far and it seems to have done well picking up on 99L not developing while virtually all other guidance was on board w/ development (at least for a while) and 90L, which appears poised to become a TC in the Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and/or Bay of Campeche...
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