What's causing that little dip of ZR into Western Spartanburg and Greenville Co that the 12k has been locked onto?
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 3km NAM's FRAM ZR accumulations are pretty reasonable
If there were to be a max zone for 0.33” to .50” of freezing rain I think it’s gonna be southern Wilkes over the brushy mountains with a second zone over eastern Allegheny County NC. These areas could get a little sleet/snow ground cover to keep the freezing rain going longer at the surface. Combine this with the best upslope in the region makes those areas a chase worthy spot for an ice storm. Elsewhere I believe .2” ice is possible given temps are barely there and precip continues to get delayed making it shy of any warning criteria.
Yea 3km NAM ice totals exactly what I was thinking.
This run looks a bit better than last run (looked to bullish) but man those super CAD areas in the foothills, 3km is already showing those areas that truly struggle to erode CAD
Also starting to think that light stuff Wednesday morning is gonna be the most effective stuff around here
*note some of this is likely overdone, especially if temps are marginal*
Also starting to think that light stuff Wednesday morning is gonna be the most effective stuff around here
*note some of this is likely overdone, especially if temps are marginal*
Those areas wet bulb quicker due to getting the moisture first off the coast of South Carolina. If our storm gets delayed further it could be more cold rain vs ice along the southern zones near Charlotte.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep you can see those 2 local maxes near the south mountains in southern Burke County and Brushy mtns as @BirdManDoomW alluded to in southern Wilkes.
Something between these 2 seem pretty reasonable although the 3km does show the freezing drizzle better 
iGRXY
Member
.15-.3 is across northern Spartanburg, northern Greenville, and Northern Cherokee counties per 3K nam. 0.05-.15 across the southern portion of those counties. Which is in line with my thinking. Landrum, Marietta, NW cherokee to chesnee likely to be on the high end of those totals. I had .24 according to the nam with where my location in the county is seems reasonable. Spartanburg city limits was around .1.
Thankfully less roads and people where those extreme ice totals are. 421 Wilkes will be wet while trees are hanging in the side roads of the brushy MTN community. Highway 115 will be the road to use for ice pictures coming into southern Wilkes.
NAM is typically bad with ice maps in the Watauga County area. There will be significant icing on the eastern side of the county but it usually tapers off going into Boone westward. Where it shows 1” of ice it likely just a tenth of an inch. The warning ice for Watauga/Ashe always ends up being in the remote forest areas that hug the escarpment of Wilkes (little to no civilization).
I’m wondering how icy (if at all) the roads will be considering this weekend’s torch? There’s a lot of heat built up in that asphalt.
Today's rains should help cool it some but my guess would be primarily your usual suspects, bridges/overpasses, elevated surfaces, etc.... although areas in the NW that are shaded could see a little problem I guess. Just my penny's worth lol
Yeah imo especially for fringe areas it’s gonna probably be a “tree ice event”, temps are so marginal
Yes will need sleet for the ZR to stick on roads. Pine trees usually provide falling ice too for roadways here. If anyone comes up this way I recommend brushy mountain smokehouse.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z RGEM looking ever-so-slightly warmer so far thru 24, within a degree or so
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hopefully the RGEM is too cold
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This would be real ugly
It agrees with models like the 3km nearly with placement of ice (just colder for fringe areas) but it really holds on to the CAD much longer, can’t discount that because that’s happened before
Stephenb888
Member
It’s looking like it’s just gonna be a cold rain in my neck of the woods. I don’t think CAD is gonna make it this far. Sigh.
You’re going with 3/10 max of Ice in northern Spartanburg? I would be careful with the NAMs ice maps.
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Yeah the RGEM is interesting, if that verifies or is just a degree colder wouldn't rule out a very brief period of ip/zr a row of counties SE of what it currently shows
Very close call on change over to snow by 0z Thursday. GFS Para and CMC. Temps plummet below freezing and moisture is still around. I believe the short range models (NAM) are too far out to see this. Tail end events rarely work out but worth watching imo for Piedmont. 
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I told Eric this in our group chat, but I'll repeat again here - it concerns me to see RGEM's thermal profile. It's usually pretty solid from what I've seen with northeastern winter events when I was in NH.
Bruh 
RGEM ZR accums, couldn't get that FRAM map to work like @Webberweather53 has been showing so these totals are likely exaggerated somewhat
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Other than maybe some temp problems, sign me up, I’ll take my chances 
iGRXY
Member
For the Landrum area? Absolutely. They're hovering by 2 of tallest mountains in the county and some of the tallest mountains in the state. Cold air entrenches itself in spartanburg county with CAD and Landrum is usually the last to switch. Definitely could see .25 - .3 ICE accrual along and north of Highway 11, especially the closer to the Greenville mountains you are.
iGRXY
Member
RGEM had the temperatures I was thinking we would likely get (29 - 31 degrees) across the northern upstate but i figured we likely wouldn't get that to actually show up on a model and it would be the usual nowcasting type thing where the thermometer shows it being just slightly colder than anticipated. RGEM is concerning.
Yeah that wedge boundary is too far east in NC imo
If a wedge is to overperform then 9/10 it’s to the south and west and not to the east. Usually a small sliver just south of 85 that digs deep into the upstate and down towards GA.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we can get the 2nd wave to do anything substantial that might be our best chance yet as there will be a very fresh and deep snow pack to our north in the mid-atlantic and NE US to work w/ to deliver low-level cold air.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Only thing we really need to fix is the trough base is very broad, want to see a smaller, consolidated vort max to get the most out of CVA & differential temp adv.
Please 
RVD
Meteorology Student
Sure, I'll take another flizzard. This system is distinct from the freezing rain Miller B setup, so I'm not sure if we should be talking about it in the same thread, but it's got another day+ to trend better before making it to the west coast.
Winter Storm Gail had been named for North Carolina and points north. Wow.
GFS at least has stuff breaking containment but the DGZs aren’t ideal