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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Well got me a truck load of wood cut....bring it....even dusted off Paris champion sled for the kids in case it sleets damn sure dont make em like these anymore.....
 
I’m obviously not expecting anything other than cold rain here in Union County, but my dewpoint has dropped from 32-29 in the last hour on cold NE breeze at 12mph...temp is 44
 
Been watching the well-defined “swirl” off the coast of Jacksonville, FL all afternoon. Is it just me or does that thing look more potent earlier than expected? Also, if we were looking for cyclogenesis off CHS, isn’t this significantly farther south of where it should be? Not sure if it has any implications since the models don’t seem to be thrown by it. Maybe one of the pros could explain what’s going on down there?
 
The 18z 3k nam is off by 5 degrees from the current conditions in the upstate something is not model correctly or something
It’ll find a way to cold rain, I promise! DP will steady out or rise, moisture moves in from SE to moisten the air, 2m temps bottom out at 34-35 and DP ends up at 29-33, seen it hundreds of times, especially in borderline events! Don’t shoot the messed in the upstate, lived 40 years of it! Caesars head, might get a glaze
 
Currently 45.6/29.7 with some high clouds streaming in

whatever cooling you get before the low level clouds move in is crucial in this setup, if you drop to 34/below just off cooling at night with your Dewpoint around/below 30, then it’s time to watch
 
3:50 pm
Greensboro is 41/27. East wind around 10mph.

RDU 43/29
Winston 42/27
Burlington 45/25
Reidsville 42/25
Mt airy 42/29 NE wind @ 7mph
HENDERSON 38/23 NE @6MPH

see NE wind direction on border counties. ALSO Henderson should be 1st ones with lower temps and DPs as its 1st to feel affects of cad moving in.
 
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