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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GeorgiaGirl said:
That early Dec. storm really had a sharp gradient that is striking in the Tennessee Valley which you can tell from the NOAA maps (and what I found when I was traveling). Like even sharper than 2/25/15. Some of the southern areas of it saw 2 maybe a little more inches of snow and then you could've driven 10 miles north...dusting...20-30 miles south, buried.
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We were in ATL on the southeast edge of that gradient. Cold rain with a few flakes that didn't accummulate. Drove a few miles NE of our location and the snow was falling. That was so incredibly disappointing.
 
Low predicted for today was 37, nope actually 30. May still hit 68 but it's going to have to haul butt to get there (and it can as I've seen it do it).

And GFS 2 meter air temperature had me at 45 with early in the morning, hahahaha 45 in what world.
 
tractor girl said:
We were in ATL on the southeast edge of that gradient. Cold rain with a few flakes that didn't accummulate. Drove a few miles NE of our location and the snow was falling. That was so incredibly disappointing.
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Yeh I think a lot of people assume the whole city got hit with that early Dec storm but a lot of people were disappointed from what I hear.
 
The model consensus is predicting nearly an all out torch for much of the SE US over the next 15 days averaged out. MDA mets for the next 15 days have Birmingham averaging +3, ATL and RDU averaging +4, and SAV/GNV averaging +6 to +7! Get ready for early bugs and pollen, especially more SE/E parts of the SE.
Meanwhile, Brent in Dallas is forecasted to be nearly 2 colder than normal averaged out over the next 15 days. Memphis is right at normal.
 
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Waiting for the Judah Cohen PV split. The split should be complete by this weekend . We shall see if it has any downstream impacts
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GaWx said:
The model consensus is predicting nearly an all out torch for much of the SE US over the next 15 days averaged out. MDA mets for the next 15 days have Birmingham averaging +3, ATL and RDU averaging +4, and SAV/GNV averaging +6 to +7! Get ready for early bugs and pollen, especially more SE/E parts of the SE.
Meanwhile, Brent in Dallas is forecasted to be nearly 2 colder than normal averaged out over the next 15 days. Memphis is right at normal.
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I liked, but really don't ... ;)
BTW - pollen here has gone insane already ... :(
 
Storm5 said:
Waiting for the Judah Cohen PV split. The split should be complete by this weekend . We shall see if it has any downstream impacts
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Is it possible that the SE tends to be warmer than normal just in advance, near, and just after a PV split regardless of the final downstream effects? I don't know but I'm just throwing this out there for discussion.
 
GaWx said:
The model consensus is predicting nearly an all out torch for much of the SE US over the next 15 days averaged out. MDA mets for the next 15 days have Birmingham averaging +3, ATL and RDU averaging +4, and SAV/GNV averaging +6 to +7! Get ready for early bugs and pollen, especially more SE/E parts of the SE.
Meanwhile, Brent in Dallas is forecasted to be nearly 2 colder than normal averaged out over the next 15 days. Memphis is right at normal.
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Pretty classic late-winter NINA response but winter may not be done quite yet, we'll be headed towards the canonical cold phases of the MJO late in the month and March and we'll see blocking begin to appear over the far North Atlantic (-NAO) in response to the PV split's generation of equatorward propagating -AAM and very intense tropical forcing from the Pacific which will create a Rossby Wave train that will shut off the tap on the downward WAFz from the NP that's been reinforcing the +NAO of late.
NINA climatology also is generally more conducive to cold & snow for the upper south in March than February at least vs normals. All of these events listed below occurred in a La Nina event (1967-68 met the CPC criteria using my ENS ONI index table).
March 11-12 2017 NC Snowmap.png
March 1-2 2009 NC Snowmap.gif
March 21 2001 NC Snowmap.gif

Screen Shot 2018-02-06 at 9.07.18 AM.png
March 25-26 1972 NC Snowmap.png
March 25-26 1971 NC Snow map.png
February 29-March 1 1968 NC Snowmap.png
map_btd.png
March 10-11 1934 NC Snowmap.png

March 17-19 1893
Raleigh 2.1"
Norfolk, VA 1.0"
Charlotte T
Asheville T

March 7-8 1890
Raleigh 1.2"
Asheville 1.1"
Charlotte 1.0"
Wilmington 0.3"

 
From MDA mets this morning (these folks don't hype):

"Stratospheric Warming And –AO Trends In Models

A stratospheric warming event will commence in the upcoming weekend, and models are allowing for that warming to transport downward from the stratosphere and into the troposphere. The results are increasing upper air heights over the Arctic and associated negative trends in the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during the 11-15 Day period (see maps above for evolution at the 500mb level and graph below for stratospheric temperature trends). This is a factor worth watching for the current 11-15 day period and especially in the periods beyond (i.e. 16-20 day period) for North American pattern implications. A –AO correlates colder in the Eastern Half this time of year, and a subset of dates from 1958, 1973, 1979, 1984-85, 1989, 2003, 2007, 2009 and 2013, which are best fit analogs for the upcoming modeled event, also highlight this as a colder signal for the Eastern Half. It should be noted, however, that recent research has events like this being more impactful in Europe versus North America, but it remains a factor worth watching heading into the final third of February."
 
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