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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

SoutheastRidge said:
Well the title of the thread was right for some areas. North GA and the Carolinas had some ice recently. Brent may have ice tonight and then again this weekend. And of course its snowy and cold here in Indiana.
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You need a job
 
It’s okay that it is wrong. I agree at the end of January things were semi looking that way, but February doesn't look like it is going to be freezing, and ferocious anymore.
 
EmersonGA said:
Not all! I'm well within the metro but there was a sharp cutoff to my south.
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What I was discussing, since 2/25/15 came up, was about how after Atlanta proper started out with rain, afterward there was a nasty dry slot that set up in which if you were in Atlanta proper or ANYWHERE on the latitude of Atlanta in nearby towns and cities, it was forget it snow wise completely. It was 35 in Atlanta proper which while above freezing, is workable, but since a dry slot set up, instead of possibly seeing snow, it was just miserable drizzle to wrap it up there. Can't lie, I was laughing at it that night but again getting dry slotted is for the birds.

North Atlanta suburbs, especially Northwest did perfectly fine. It may have been a north of I-20 storm in Alabama but in Georgia, I'd call it more of a north of the I-85 corridor storm, especially once you got to Atlanta.
 
Funny how February looks now when the long range looked good at the end of January. Of course the best storm we had first showed up on the models only 5 days out.
 
Perspective ...
It was in later January when everything looked to rock this month. Now it is only what ... Oh yeah ... February 6th, and models look bad, so and the winter is written off? The models were wrong in late January, correct? What was that, 10 or 12 days ago? What is to say definitively the models are not also just as wrong now?
Just askin' ... ;)
Best,
Phil
 
The Arctic is now back up to a whopping 15C warmer than normal, which is the largest daily anomaly since December of 2016:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

To give you better perspective, today's Arctic temp. is normal for near April 1st! Holy torch!

Edit: KSAV had its coldest week in 41 years Jan 1-7, 2018, which was just after the Arctic was averaging ~8C warmer than normal..
 
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1300m said:
While a fair point, we now have the calendar working against us. If we get into a better pattern it is going to be 2/20 or later, leaving roughly 3 weeks of prime climo time left for even the upper South. I'm not writing off that 3 week period, but that's basically all we have left of true winter outside of a rather anomalous later March storm.
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Could not agree more; just trying my level best to help preserve someone else's sanity while still being realistic ... ;)
~~~~~~~~
The last thing I can be accused of is having a bias, warm or cold ... But it is worth tossing out thoughts, even when it looks like the handwriting might be on the wall ... so long as thse thoughts are tempered by realism ... :cool:
 
It wouldn't shock me if we see a Substantial Severe Weather setup mid month in the South as the pattern changes.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Well the title of the thread was right for some areas. North GA and the Carolinas had some ice recently. Brent may have ice tonight and then again this weekend. And of course its snowy and cold here in Indiana.
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We’ve been pretty cold up here also with a few flurrie events this past week. Rest of this week looks cold until the weekend. Hopefully the gfs is wrong because it does show some very warm temps next week.
 
12z euro next Monday.

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Wishful thinking? Probably


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The cold air is there. It just doesn't want to pay us a visit. Folks, get ready. February is about to be a real burner. Time to break out the sunscreen. I'm sorry
 
1300m said:
While a fair point, we now have the calendar working against us. If we get into a better pattern it is going to be 2/20 or later, leaving roughly 3 weeks of prime climo time left for even the upper South. I'm not writing off that 3 week period, but that's basically all we have left of true winter outside of a rather anomalous later March storm.
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Please consider this as a 2nd reply to your post.
A brief war story.
I represented a landowner whose property was severely polluted by a petroleum company. The State required a full remediation; the dig was begun on 2/26/04; the location was about 30 miles ENE of Gainesville. The engineers and others on hand to monitor were from Canada. They flew in, with "summer" clothes, expecting "Florida weather", as it had been quite warm, somewhat akin to now. The remediation dig took 3 days. On day 1 it rained. On day 2 it sleeted all day, and was so cold that the digital cameras the Canadians brought down to document actually froze. On day 3, it was bitter raw.
None of that weather was forecasted ...
So, strange things can happen ... even when least expected ...;)
Just not every day or year mind you ... :cool:
... and probably not this year ... o_O
 
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