Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The MJO is taking its sweet time to run its course through phase 7, this is obviously contributing to the warmth being forecast the next couple weeks, but we're going to keep this WWB on the dateline going through at least the 3rd week of February. Definitely starting to wonder how big this oceanic Kelvin Wave is going to be, an MJO pulse this intense lasting this long over the west-central Pacific is a little disconcerting. We'll find out soon enough in 2-3 weeks if this kelvin wave is beefy enough to push us close to NINO territory by late spring and/or if further coupling occurs.
Our ENSO base state is likely going to change, how much is uncertain, but this La Nina we're in now is probably living on borrowed time.
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So if this verifies, we could have a small window in phase 8 starting some time around the 16th?

 

[DixieBlizzard]

Sorry but all of this winter is over crap is just crap. It's February 5th and no models will tell us what happens beyond mid-month. For a reminder, here is February 26, 2015. Not the greatest winter of all time either.... (Adairsville, Ga)

 

[Webberweather53]

So if this verifies, we could have a small window in phase 8 starting some time around the 16th?

It's certainly possible but we are a long ways off from that even now. What's more intriguing to me here is the fact that the MJO has slowed down in recent NWP forecasts in phase 7 and by an appreciable amount at that and its remaining more amplified than forecast, there must be something in the background that they just aren't seeing. I'm personally becoming highly suspicious that this MJO pulse is already beginning to tilt the scales towards a neutral-warm ENSO as we speak and that these changing initial states are hard for the models to resolve, much less forecast. We'll just have to wait and see how big this downwelling Kelvin wave is once it comes into view in about 3 weeks or so, but given the longevity and intensity of the westerly wind burst this MJO pulse is generating, I'd hedge my bets on it being big one that's capable of killing this La Nina off and w/ any additional forcing, potentially flipping us into El Nino conditions down the road. While it remains to be seen if we can churn out an El Nino event the next several months or so, we're taking adult steps in that direction and the slowing of the MJO in the central Pacific is contributing to this rationale because it prolongs the westerly wind bursts which generate Kelvin Waves, resulting in (you guessed it) bigger downwelling Kelvin Waves that suppress the thermocline and warm the surface water of the Equatorial Pacific.

 

[Webberweather53]

This might be more applicable to the ENSO thread, but the current Western Pacific MJO event is comparable in terms of amplitude and time of the year to the MJO events that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super El Ninos. I'm not saying that's necessarily going to happen here or that we're going to definitely get an El Nino next winter, but boy oh boy we are making the right moves at the right time of the year to trigger one.





If you look at the far bottom left hand corner, you can see that the TAO buoys are already picking up on the big downwelling Kelvin Wave that this MJO event has triggered which could go onto warm the entire equatorial Pacific. It's certainly arguable that the polar vortex split and easterly QBO both played their part in destabilizing & cooling the near-equatorial tropopause which helped instigate this MJO pulse in the first place which could eventually go on to kill our La Nina, etc. It's fun to see how everything is connected.

 

[Stormlover]

I don't believe in SSW events. Also, that map looks like a West Coast dream not an East Coast one.

how can you not believe in them? they happen

 

[Stormlover]

Sorry but all of this winter is over crap is just crap. It's February 5th and no models will tell us what happens beyond mid-month. For a reminder, here is February 26, 2015. Not the greatest winter of all time either.... (Adairsville, Ga)

winter is over..blah blah...good grief..why come on here if that's what you are going to say?

 

[Kylo]

When even the cold biased GEFS has the SE US near normal to warmer than normal averaged out over the next 15 days, it isn't a good sign for cold prospects. Are we going to end up with a La Nina style SE Feb after all?

Your call for an above normal mid-January though end of February looks really good. It looks bleak for any cold prospects the next two weeks.

 

[ForsythSnow]

how can you not believe in them? they happen

They never seem to produce anything but disappointment.

winter is over..blah blah...good grief..why come on here if that's what you are going to say?

The remainder of the month doesn't look that good at the moment unless something springs up after mid month unexpectedly. Sure, the PNA goes positive and the AO goes negative, but is it going to be long enough to do anything? Have to wait, but I think we've used all our potential for a big storm.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm not sure SSW events help and I know that the Polar Vortex splits don't really help at all.

Also Webb, thank you for the MJO explanation. So it appears that if we go in Phase 8 at all, it might just be brief... Quite the change from just over a week ago since Phase 7 is generally warm. So it looks like February is cooked until late if at all.

 

[Tarheel1]

I'm glad we're flipping to a Nino pattern, that makes for a very quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic

 

[Webberweather53]

I'm not sure SSW events help and I know that the Polar Vortex splits don't really help at all.

Also Webb, thank you for the MJO explanation. So it appears that if we go in Phase 8 at all, it might just be brief... Quite the change from just over a week ago since Phase 7 is generally warm. So it looks like February is cooked until late if at all.

The MJO may actually spend some significant time in phase 8, all I'm saying is trying to provide some explanation for why it's slowing down in phase 7 and raise the alarm that this could be setting us up for a flip to an El Nino event if other forcing aligns. The last part is the most uncertain but very relevant to our weather/climate variability the next year or two and worth discussing

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm glad we're flipping to a Nino pattern, that makes for a very quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic

I wouldn't mind a weak-moderate one in general occurring at all. It's a strong one that'll have me go bleh. But from what I was reading (although not that much outside of here), I didn't think that'd mean a quiet hurricane season.

Not that I wouldn't mind a tame severe and hurricane season, to be honest. I think we all need a slow moving depression down the road but we sure don't need another Irma.

 

[pcbjr]

I wouldn't mind a weak-moderate one in general occurring at all. It's a strong one that'll have me go bleh. But from what I was reading (although not that much outside of here), I didn't think that'd mean a quiet hurricane season.

Not that I wouldn't mind a tame severe and hurricane season, to be honest. I think we all need a slow moving depression down the road but we sure don't need another Irma.

Tropical weather is part of the natural cycle; it's what charges our aquifer, keeps FS's lake serving several million people, cools the summer heat, and does other wonderful things. But storms with a name ... Nahhh ... we've had enough; wind does nothing but prune trees that don't need it, and damage property. Lots of subdued lows, spatially spread across 4 or 5 hot months, that spin into rain and don't get a birth name ... with you 100%

 

[weatherfide]

I'm glad we're flipping to a Nino pattern, that makes for a very quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic

And hopefully a wetter, cooler summer?

 

[GaWx]

Your call for an above normal mid-January though end of February looks really good. It looks bleak for any cold prospects the next two weeks.

Thanks for noting this and it would be a nice win for the chosen analogs (sorry Mack), but I'd rather be wrong in this case. It certainly isn't worth it to be warm just to make the analogs look good. Let's hope things change on the model consensus soon. I'm not predicting that but I remain hopeful.

 

[EmersonGA]

Sorry but all of this winter is over crap is just crap. It's February 5th and no models will tell us what happens beyond mid-month. For a reminder, here is February 26, 2015. Not the greatest winter of all time either.... (Adairsville, Ga)

That was a fun storm even if I did switch to rain for awhile. The flakes stuck from the beginning and it poured for hours. If I recall Tennessee had racked up storm after storm the weeks before and it seemed like the cold would never make it far enough south. Anything can happen all the way to mid March in my book.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

February 2015 had a few winter events that I can recall, most light but two big ones, the Northeast Georgia ice storm, and the significant snow event in North Georgia. There may have been more that I was forgetting that happened in TN. I think the last one was an ULL that completely screwed over Atlanta proper with a dry slot after they were too warm at the beginning. I can't lie, I was laughing at the radar that had Atlanta completely blanked out on that system during that night...and iirc, after the early rain, it was cold enough for it to snow there too but the dry slot kept them from anything at all.

That's the story with ULLs though, you can win big but then lose big. A lot of areas in Atlanta proper won big on 3/01/09 and they lost big on 2/25/15.

Edit: Here it is, in all it's glory, but truthfully, being dryslotted is for the birds. Atlanta was at 35, but it was very much workable if they didn't get that awful dryslot. Instead of getting snow and possibly heading down to freezing, it was miserable, mid 30s light drizzle because of that dry slot.

 

[Webberweather53]

Even if this winter were to end right now, it really hasn't been all that bad in NC. We've seen virtually every type of winter storm here in NC, a classic "piedmont gradient" storm, an ice storm, a few token events, and a storm that clobbered the central-eastern piedmont bringing RDU ~6" of snow, and at least one significant storm (or more) has occurred in December, January, & February. Plus our temps thus far this winter have been below normal, can't really complain. I'd be content with us switching into tornado season right now. One more big dog in late February or early-mid March would turn this into a legendary winter for a good portion of east-central NC, the likes of which we haven't seen on a regular basis since the 1960s.

 

[Brent]

Nam has an ice storm here tomorrow night

I'll believe it when i see it

Although it was closer to reality with temps today than the other useless models

 

[olhausen]

February 2015 had a few winter events that I can recall, most light but two big ones, the Northeast Georgia ice storm, and the significant snow event in North Georgia. There may have been more that I was forgetting that happened in TN. I think the last one was an ULL that completely screwed over Atlanta proper with a dry slot after they were too warm at the beginning. I can't lie, I was laughing at the radar that had Atlanta completely blanked out on that system during that night...and iirc, after the early rain, it was cold enough for it to snow there too but the dry slot kept them from anything at all.

That's the story with ULLs though, you can win big but then lose big. A lot of areas in Atlanta proper won big on 3/01/09 and they lost big on 2/25/15.

Edit: Here it is, in all it's glory, but truthfully, being dryslotted is for the birds. Atlanta was at 35, but it was very much workable if they didn't get that awful dryslot. Instead of getting snow and possibly heading down to freezing, it was miserable, mid 30s light drizzle because of that dry slot.

February 2015 was the greatest February I’ve ever experienced winter weather wise in my 12 years of living here. Leading up to the 16th we had nothing but a few dustings. That all changed in mid February as my backyard personally saw 3 snows of 2 plus inches with two of them at at least 4 inches and one freezing rain event all in a matter of 3 weeks time. I actually had 2 inches of snow fall on top of 3 inches of snow that had fallen 2 day’s earlier to give me my first 4 inch snow. Then we had freezing rain fall on top of that a few days later. We had a lot of sleet with the first storm which kept the snow on the ground for 2 weeks combined with the cold temps. When it was all almost gone we got dumped on with 4 more inches of snow on March 6th I believe. Portland Tennessee which is a ten minute drive north of me managed all snow for the first storm and pulled off 9 inches of it to my 3 because of so much sleet in my area. I’m also certain parts of north eastern Tennessee got a devastating ice storm during this time period.