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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GaWx said:
MDA has today warmed the FEB KATL forecast up to an amazing 56.8 F, which would not only be the warmest met winter month on record back to 1879 by 0.7 F but also would be the largest warming from Jan to Feb on record, 16.4 F!
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Ouch ... :eek:
 
GaWx said:
MDA has today warmed the FEB KATL forecast up from 56.2 to an amazing 56.8 F, which would not only be the warmest met winter month on record back to 1879 by 0.7 F but also would be the largest warming from Jan to Feb on record, 16.4 F!
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Where did February 2017 rank? I thought it was one of the warmest on record for a lot of locations. Right before February started I thought at the least we would not approach the warmth we saw last February.

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Kylo said:
Where did February 2017 rank? I thought it was one of the warmest on record for a lot of locations. Right before February started I thought at the least we would not approach the warmth we saw last February.

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1. Correction: At 56.8 F, MDA's latest KATL's forecast for Feb., it would by 0.7 be the warmest Feb on record. However, it actually would NOT be no the warmest met winter month on record, which is Dec of 2016's 57.6 F. I apologize for my error. That being said, with further warming still possible, getting to 57.6+ is not out of the realm of reasonable possibilities as the forecast has already warmed over one full degree.over just the last few days of forecasts.

2. Feb of 2017 is currently the warmest Feb on record at 56.1.
 
IF I get to freezing during the wedge and precip tomorrow, that looks like the last freeze in the foreseeable future. As of this am, we were only like +2.6f or something but there is some raging warmth on the models.

Serious question, is it time for pre-emergent :(
 
Nomanslandva said:
IF I get to freezing during the wedge and precip tomorrow, that looks like the last freeze in the foreseeable future. As of this am, we were only like +2.6f or something but there is some raging warmth on the models.

Serious question, is it time for pre-emergent :(
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You have an interesting day coming up tomorrow, a little model battle going on with the NAM still giving you some love.....hope it works out for you!
 
whamby said:
Well, it's now looking like this feb could go down in the record books for warmest ever, or even top five. days of 80s in Georgia, 70s tennessee.
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Huh? I’ve had one day in the 70s this month and that was yesterday. I’ve only had 3 days out of 15 that were in the 60s. It’s 46 degrees here at 1:43pm and tomorrow’s high is supposed to be 44.Now I don’t know about temps in Georgia because I don’t live there but here in Middle Tennessee we are far from any records of 70 degree days. Next week we are forecasted to have two days in the 70s and then back to 50s after that. There’s no doubt we will be above average this month but it’s far from record heat so far.
Here’s my temps so far this month.

Feb 1 H 51.8 L 23
Feb 2 H 27.4 L 15.8
Feb 3 H 45.1 L 18.5
Feb 4 H 48.3 L 25
Feb 5 H 35 L 22.1
Feb 6 H 46.2 L 33.9
Feb 7 H 40.6 L 28.8
Feb 8 H 43.7 L 22
Feb 9 H 61.7 L 27.9
Feb 10 H 58.1 L 47
Feb 11 H 58.8 L 32
Feb 12 H 39.2 L 30.1
Feb 13 H 55.5 L 35.6
Feb 14 H 61.1 L 53
Feb 15 H 75.3 L 61.5

Now my backyard doesn’t represent the whole state but neither does anyone else’s. I haven’t averaged out my monthly totals yet but I bet it’s somewhere near normal overall so far. My average high now is 50 so other then 2 really warm days next week anything in the 50s isn’t that far above normal at this point.
 
I will add to my post from above that the 12z euro does look quite toasty early next week and for the remainder of the month. It actually shows 3 days of 70s next week before another brief cool down. I’m not trying to bash whamby but just wanted to point out that what’s going on in his or her backyard doesn’t represent what’s happened in all of Tennessee this month. It will be interesting to see where we end up at the end of the month. Especially the far south and far north as the warm/cold temp cut off has been sharp.
 
olhausen said:
I will add to my post from above that the 12z euro does look quite toasty early next week and for the remainder of the month. It actually shows 3 days of 70s next week before another brief cool down. I’m not trying to bash whamby but just wanted to point out that what’s going on in his or her backyard doesn’t represent what’s happened in all of Tennessee this month. It will be interesting to see where we end up at the end of the month. Especially the far south and far north as the warm/cold temp cut off has been sharp.
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I have 8 out of the next 10 days with highs 65 or higher, with lows in the 50s and 60s, if that verifies, Feb will end up way on the AB side. Eastern Tn more affected by the SE ridge than west tennessee. Georgia is forecast to be even warmer. Could it change, or modify, sure? Anyway, checkmate. Go away.
 
Brent said:
I'm gonna be real impressed if NYC proper gets much more than a couple slushy inches of snow would take crazy rates to overcome the warm temps i think
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RGEM has LI all rain but the city looks like all snow. Nothing like riding the line. NAM looks better so hug the NAM:weenie: 18z RGEM shifted the snow line a little south for me so i'll hope fore a little.
 
metwannabe said:
You have an interesting day coming up tomorrow, a little model battle going on with the NAM still giving you some love.....hope it works out for you!
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Yea, going to be a close call. I think I am about 25% of normal this year for snow so need a little help. Some heavy rates close, hanging hopes on dynamics:weenie:
 
Brent said:
I'm gonna be real impressed if NYC proper gets much more than a couple slushy inches of snow would take crazy rates to overcome the warm temps i think
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Brent,
Next winter, we need you traveling a lot to points on the other side of the Western Continental Divide (seems like Chi-Town and NYC get slushy when you're there, so if you go west for work maybe they stay warm and we'll deep freeze east). Talk about straw grasping 9 months in advance ... LOL ... :eek:
Best and JK,
Phil
 
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