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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Can't complain, my winter snow total so far is greater than the total in Washington DC.

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I agree. It’s all about beating the mid Atlantic in my book. I still think we get another crack around March 1st.


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I guess it could be worse.

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Here's some irony. Based on these runs, the poster "SoutheastRidge" up in Indiana is in the best location over the next 15 days of all active members thanks to none other than the southeast ridge and he's sick of the cold!
It's just surprising that a place like Richmond, IN with basically the same Latitude as Madrid, Spain could get all that snow ;)
 
Excited about this rain to knock this drought out, no trolling, we really need the rain, it seems like this drought just crept up on us.
 
It's just surprising that a place like Richmond, IN with basically the same Latitude as Madrid, Spain could get all that snow ;)
IMO it gets way too cold here given the latitude. 40N is really not that far north when you think about it. Im willing to bet over 90% of the world at the same latitude have a warmer climate.
 
I guess it could be worse.

gfs_z500a_us_29.png


gfs_T2m_seus_30.png
The fact that the weather brains of the world keep kicking the can and we keep seeing the models trend warmer as Larry pointed out. I'm finding it hard to get excited about any potential late winter cold. I've actually been enjoying the warmer temps and getting outside more

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The fact that the weather brains of the world keep kicking the can and we keep seeing the models trend warmer as Larry pointed out. I'm finding it hard to get excited about any potential late winter cold. I've actually been enjoying the warmer temps and getting outside more

Yeah, the 12Z GFS/CMC suites keep the SE ridge strong through day 15. Let's see if the Euro suite agrees.
 
Yeah, the 12Z GFS/CMC suites keep the SE ridge strong through day 15. Let's see if the Euro suite agrees.
Yeah, with a high of 83º and a low of 57º down here over the entire 12Z GFS run, for February, someone has to think somethin' ain't right in the alignment of the moon and stars ... :confused:
 
The fact that the weather brains of the world keep kicking the can and we keep seeing the models trend warmer as Larry pointed out. I'm finding it hard to get excited about any potential late winter cold. I've actually been enjoying the warmer temps and getting outside more

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Ensembles, ensembles, ensembles. Beating a dead horse here but the GFS looks nothing like its ensemble suite in terms of longer term trends. The GEFS isn't exactly getting warmer as verification nears on the referenced time stamp (168 HR) for the GFS
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I will say this again... The potential going into the 3rd/4th week of this month is impressive in my opinion. Yes it will be somewhat short lived and not a locked in Cold Pattern but whoever is in that battle zone between both air masses is going to get shocked. Right now it looks as if Arkansas, Northern Miss, and Tennessee in the South could be the Winner, with extreme North Alabama very close to a Wintry scenario. With that said the SER will be stout for the rest of the Southeast and could provide an early Severe potential, with Dixie Alley possibly in it too. Still many questions than answers.
 
I'm starting to wonder if Atlanta has seen it's last freeze of the season. No freezes forecast through at least Feb 22. I know one year the last freeze was in early February so I guess it's possible.
 
Someone on here brought up the similarities of this SSW and the one from 1985. Below is today’s EPS compared to the pattern of 1985 shortly after the split and then what it evolved too a week or so later.

View attachment 3902 View attachment 3900 View attachment 3901
Now, does January vs. February make a difference?
Good info, in any event!
BTW - after that blast in 1985, it warmed up and pretty well stayed ...
 
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