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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

344AAC4B-9EEE-45C1-B0DC-AB5CA20DA5F2.jpeg Looking good for the Mid Atlantic! Good for them, looks like a SE ridge torchfest!
 
Kylo said:
The one consistent of this winter is the persistent upward trend of the NAO.

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I don't care so much about the NAO since it almost never depends on us getting a storm. It's only good for locking cold after a storm I think. The PNA and AO are much more worth focusing on, and the AO looks to go deeply negative, and even with correction could get it down low enough for impacts. Have to get the PNA up though, it's negative and then slightly positive to neutral.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Look at it tanking around the 16th! It’s happening, last week of Feb for glory!
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:) I wish. We are on the 19th consecutive winter month (D-M) of a +NAO. Highly doubt any -NAO occurring the next few weeks.

The MJO model runs today are pathetic. Nina climo usually rules in February, which is what we are seeing. Favorable MJO, -SOI and major SSW doesn’t appear it will change that. Most on this site got to see snow so that always makes for a solid winter. Ready for severe season.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I don't care so much about the NAO since it almost never depends on us getting a storm. It's only good for locking cold after a storm I think. The PNA and AO are much more worth focusing on, and the AO looks to go deeply negative, and even with correction could get it down low enough for impacts. Have to get the PNA up though, it's negative and then slightly positive to neutral.
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Maybe for your area it’s not preferable. For Raleigh would prefer a -NAO, our best winters our -NAO winters but pacific side can deliver too. It’s been so long since a -NAO winter (2010 and 2011) that people forget. We need help from either the pacific with PNA/-EPO combo or Atlantic blocking with NAO. We don’t appear to be getting either.
 
A67CE0F7-8A1E-4501-A54B-05453291ABFE.png That’s basically admitting he was wrong! Takes a big man to admit defeat!
 
Storm5 said:
Can't complain, my winter snow total so far is greater than the total in Washington DC.

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And State College PA!! Lol!
JB was in the 6-12” snow area the other day, saw him complaining about 2-3” of slop! How you like that warm nose JB?:p
 
Each of the 3 upcoming 5 day periods of the next 15 days is warmer than normal at 2 meters in the SE on all of the latest runs of the GFS, Euro, and CMC suites. That is despite cooler trends in the Midwest/N Rockies, especially the EPS run that I noted earlier. If anything, the most recent 6-15 day trends have been warmer in the SE thanks to a stronger SE ridge. We'll see whether or not this verifies (don't bet the farm on it just yet), but the forecasted pattern of the warmest part of the country being in the SE does fit Feb La Niña long term averages well. It wouldn't be what I'd want. I don't want early bugs and pollen. So, hopefully this will change, especiallly in the 11-15. No offense to bugs, of course!
 
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GaWx said:
Each of the 3 upcoming 5 day periods of the next 15 days is warmer than normal at 2 meters in the SE on all of the latest runs of the GFS, Euro, and CMC suites. That is despite cooler trends in the Midwest/N Rockies, especially the EPS run that I noted earlier. If anything, the most recent 6-15 day trends have been warmer in the SE thanks to a stronger SE ridge. We'll see whether or not this verifies (don't bet the farm on it just yet), but the forecasted pattern of the warmest part of the country being in the SE does fit Feb La Niña long term averages well. It wouldn't be what I'd want. I don't want early bugs and pollen.
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Remember when people were saying “ don’t worry about the SE ridge” “ it’s overdone “ “ didn’t happen in January, won’t happen now!” Etc, February, you rock! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
Remember when people were saying “ don’t worry about the SE ridge” “ it’s overdone “ “ didn’t happen in January, won’t happen now!” Etc, February, you rock! :(
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Here's some irony. Based on these runs, the poster "SoutheastRidge" up in Indiana is in the best location over the next 15 days of all active members thanks to none other than the southeast ridge and he's sick of the cold!
 
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ForsythSnow said:
I don't care so much about the NAO since it almost never depends on us getting a storm. It's only good for locking cold after a storm I think. The PNA and AO are much more worth focusing on, and the AO looks to go deeply negative, and even with correction could get it down low enough for impacts. Have to get the PNA up though, it's negative and then slightly positive to neutral.
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Kylo said:
Maybe for your area it’s not preferable. For Raleigh would prefer a -NAO, our best winters our -NAO winters but pacific side can deliver too. It’s been so long since a -NAO winter (2010 and 2011) that people forget. We need help from either the pacific with PNA/-EPO combo or Atlantic blocking with NAO. We don’t appear to be getting either.
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The magic of the -NAO in the SE is for coastal storms (Miller A type). The -NAO really slows down the flow and allows storms to hang around longer and get cranking as it moves slowly up the coast or out to sea. We can all get good storms without it, but the biggest coastal storms with a long duration probably featured -NAO or some other feature like a 50-50 low to slow down the flow.
 
GaWx said:
Here's some irony. Based on these runs, the poster "SoutheastRidge" up in Indiana is in the best location over the next 15 days of all active members thanks to none other than the southeast ridge and he's sick of the cold!
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Thats not what I wanted to hear. I would gladly give all of the cold up here to the south.
 
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