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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

pcbjr said:
Lord I hope he's right ... ;)
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Next chance is 2/17-20 IMO, so I agree more or less. Doesn’t mean it will work out, but that’s the period to watch so far at least for the upper SE, apps, NC of course. Goes without saying a LOT has to happen to get it going for those dates, but that’s the timeframe.
 
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The greater SE has done pretty well compared to other areas such as DC and Northern Va. it could be worse.
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The Euro and GFS both have been showing on and off a chance for my area Sunday/ Monday. Euro looked good yesterday but has backed off atm. It would not take much for a good hit for me with this setup.
 
pcbjr said:
Webb,
In total honesty and with the utmost candor, no idea. o_O
Can you translate and bring it down to my kindergarten level?
Thanks! ;)
Best,
Phil
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Essentially saying we have all the classic signals associated w/ a big MJO event, the Pacific jet is just not extending like we usually observe, it may be tied to the bgd state which isn't particular favorable for Pac Jet extension. The Pacific Jet not extending will change the downstream pattern over North America relative to what we often observe in phase 8.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Essentially saying we have all the classic signals associated w/ a big MJO event, the Pacific jet is just not extending like we usually observe, it may be tied to the bgd state which isn't particular favorable for Pac Jet extension. The Pacific Jet not extending will change the downstream pattern over North America relative to what we often observe in phase 8.
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Thanks! Most appreciated, You're a gem! ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Essentially saying we have all the classic signals associated w/ a big MJO event, the Pacific jet is just not extending like we usually observe, it may be tied to the bgd state which isn't particular favorable for Pac Jet extension. The Pacific Jet not extending will change the downstream pattern over North America relative to what we often observe in phase 8.
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I think what folks want to know is if this is a cold signal or more warmth?
 
It's interesting to see the difference of opinion among folks here as well as on the local tv stations. Glenn Burns says spring begins after 2/14, Chris Holcomb (who I acutually trust more lol) said its warm the next week or maybe two but winter isn't over. lol. It's one heckuva showdown between stations this month! I have no clue what David is saying (I lost respect for him when he went off on folks a few days before the foot of snow saying its not happening, no snow is going to fall) and CBS 46 eh.. I take them with a grain of salt.

My vote goes to "Winter isn't over" meaning some cold shots are still likely and if they happen to meet up with precip well there ya go.

Anywho. 1.32" of rain today. Down to 39.4 this hour.
 
Stormlover said:
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Of course we've heard many on here thrown in the towel and say winter cancel, etc...smh
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We’ve seen quite a few of these posts from Mets, ( Cohen, JB , Ventrice, WxSouth, etc) about how cold February was going to be , as Storm stated, the Mid month, is now end of the month at best, and with the models and ensembles looking quite Torchy, the end of the month should be in question?
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I think what folks want to know is if this is a cold signal or more warmth?
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Sounds like he’s saying it’s going to cause the opposite effect of a normal phase 8 MJO, so that sounds like he’s saying warm, IMO
 
Storm5 said:
We've also heard many on here talk about how great this month was gonna be after the 10th, then the second week , now it's the last week

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better than declaring it's over...in fact, what's worse, you may have been on both sides, depending on the day, LOL, j/lk
 
Tarheel1 said:
We’ve seen quite a few of these posts from Mets, ( Cohen, JB , Ventrice, WxSouth, etc) about how cold February was going to be , as Storm stated, the Mid month, is now end of the month at best, and with the models and ensembles looking quite Torchy, the end of the month should be in question?
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The ensembles have looked torchy for weeks and it hasn't verified. The first week of February is solidly below normal, even a super torchy week would bring our temps to seasonal levels by mid-month.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Could be wrong but if anything "phase 8" esque occurs, it should bring BN temps to the east. Phase 8 seems to be what everyone is hoping for
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That’s what’s odd. GEFS is the coldest model but has MJO stuck in 7 and EPS has it riding into
8-1 but is a blow torch the next 15 days with a below normal day here or there mixed in after a rain event.

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470F8080-D7B7-48FB-8F84-4DFCCE315449.png Laying down the snowpack for Fab Feb 27th - March 10th , rocking pattern!
 
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