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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

HM is unwavering in his notion of the development of a -NAO later in February and I'm going to back him up on this one given what I posted yesterday on the MJO-NAO connections, the equatorward -AAM propagation from the SSWE and poleward -AAM from the MJO, etc. Masiello's "secret" to success here wrt having a relatively uncanny capability to predict medium-long range in spite of potentially large run-to-run NWP variability lies in his utilization of just focusing on the large-scale forcings at hand and complementing this with regular review of literature on topics that are relevant to the real-time pattern in addition to experience obviously, instead of focusing so much on NWP like many often do. Your brain is a muscle, and like any muscle it needs regular exercise and that's what reading literature affords you. That's what separates the men from the boys.

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Webberweather53 said:
Yes I did and it's also a GEFS 11-16 day forecast, name one EPS/GEFS coast-to-coast torch that they've been advertising on end for the past few weeks beyond day 6-7 that's verified, I'll be waiting...
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I’ve spoken on that as well and 100% agree. The more one looks at 500mb anomalies over the course of seasons/years you’ll be able to distinguish when the model is complete BS. Model loses skill and tries to throw ridges and troughs everywhere, often elongating them. It’s a 11-16 day mean on an ensemble - that’s pretty much par for the course there.. Half of that ridging won’t be there.


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I'm still psyched up to see how the polar vortex split will impact our weather.....looking a the model run to run, the direction of the cold air aloft moves has been pretty inconsistent past 5 days.
 
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
 
Tarheel1 said:
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
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I'll discuss any pattern, any time, any season (and I'll probably be wrong) ... but if I see warm, and say warm, please do not translate that to "want warm"; likewise, if I see cold, or say cold, please do not translate that to somehow "want warm". :cool:
 
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Tarheel1 said:
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
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Well the models were trying to show a torch all winter long when winter started and look how that turned out. I don’t think anyone is saying a torch 100% can’t and won’t happen but rather explaining why they think it might not happen. February can be a crazy month and really anything can happen warm or cold. Obviously we all would love one last snow storm to close out the winter but only time will tell what truly happens.
 
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Of course we've heard many on here thrown in the towel and say winter cancel, etc...smh
 
Tarheel1 said:
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
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I sure hope the EPS busts and all the warmth is wrong and the higher heights across the conus is wrong. And the big vortex over north central Canada is wrong. I hope it’s all wrong. I think March 1960 is coming. :-(



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Yeah I don't get it. We have seen torch after torch forecast in the long range and it has verified very few days overall since late November early December. We have seen some amazing cold forecast in the long range too and some have been pretty close to correct at times and other times not so much, so the object lesson here is don't panic nor celebrate too much based on long range (over 10 days) predictions. Winter is over, winter cancel, fabulous February etc... are being trumpeted run to operational run and that is a huge mistake.
 
MichaelJ said:
Yeah I don't get it. We have seen torch after torch forecast in the long range and it has verified very few days overall since late November early December. We have seen some amazing cold forecast in the long range too and some have been pretty close to correct at times and other times not so much, so the object lesson here is don't panic nor celebrate too much based on long range (over 10 days) predictions. Winter is over, winter cancel, fabulous February etc... are being trumpeted run to operational run and that is a huge mistake.
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Agreed. Seasonal may win out rest of winter. Since mid-January we have some cold shots, some warmups. But, just nothing conducive for impact winter events.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I sure do too, but since it's just someone on social media saying it, I feel like it's grasping at straws. On the other hand, things are looking more positive in the LR for at least a cool down. All we need it cooperation between highs and lows...
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I just want you to get a lot, and I mean a lot, of good rain for the Lake before the dry season sets in ... ;)
Would love to see you get some frozen in the interim, but H2O into the Lake is crucial. Why the heck they built it where they did, given the flow from the mountains, still confuses if not perplexes me ... :confused:
Lastly, not sure if a March freeze down here is wanted ...

On second thought ... bring it on ... :cool:
 
Tarheel1 said:
So when the models show cold and snow and pattern changes, and fantasy storms, they are good? But when they show torch, warm at 10 days, they suck?? Just seems like it's ok to get excited about 10 day out cold and snow, but if they show torch, it can't and won't happen? I'm just as guilty as the next, just funny how that works!
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Meh the whole point here is that a ridge over the entire US (and more) won't happen. It's true and will adjust (analysis unless it initialized wrong for today showed a trough over the great lakes on the models, but that was it in the US) but positive heights over all of the southeast...is that conducive to winter weather or truly cold temps occurring?

Winter most likely...is over outside of Tennessee and parts of North Carolina. La Nina has put her foot down.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Meh the whole point here is that a ridge over the entire US (and more) won't happen. It's true and will adjust (analysis unless it initialized wrong for today showed a trough over the great lakes on the models, but that was it in the US) but positive heights over all of the southeast...is that conducive to winter weather or truly cold temps occurring?

Winter most likely...is over outside of Tennessee and parts of North Carolina. La Nina has put her foot down.
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Love ya GA Girl, but do not agree at all....
 
pcbjr said:
I just want you to get a lot, and I mean a lot, of good rain for the Lake before the dry season sets in ... ;)
Would love to see you get some frozen in the interim, but H2O into the Lake is crucial. Why the heck they built it where they did, given the flow from the mountains, still confuses if not perplexes me ... :confused:
Lastly, not sure if a March freeze down here is wanted ...

On second thought ... bring it on ... :cool:
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Well, good news is all the runoff and rain, which has been around 4 or so inches since Feb 3rd, has raised the lake up to only 3.5 feet down, up almost a foot since. The dry season is real, and I'll take as much as I can get between then and now. But if we head towards an El Nino, there won't be much dry between now and the end of it.
 
I'll be happy to be proven wrong, just one storm can make a month memorable but I'm just not feeling it at all...I do think Tennessee Valley areas that got shut out with early December have a puncher's shot late this month and in early March but I think everyone else outside Tennessee/parts of North Carolina is done.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'll be happy to be proven wrong, just one storm can make a month memorable but I'm just not feeling it at all...I do think Tennessee Valley areas that got shut out with early December have a puncher's shot late this month and in early March but I think everyone else outside Tennessee/parts of North Carolina is done.
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Maybe, parts of Metro ATL have had over 14 inches this winter so that is a huge win, but we are in the true heart of winter, and you know how March can act....
 
BPATL said:
Maybe, parts of Metro ATL have had over 14 inches this winter so that is a huge win, but we are in the true heart of winter, and you know how March can act....
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I only know pain, not hope from March. I wouldn't mind observing 93 all over again but I will never EVER get over March 2009. That scarred me forever. It's why I absolutely despise bowling balls/cutoffs.

I don't care if one sits and dumps on me, I will still completely hate bowling balls/cutoffs.
 
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