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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

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Precip breaking out.
 
You want to get a big snow south of I-40 here, we need this vortex to be over New England or southern Ontario & Quebec by the time this s/w enters the southwestern US, not western Ontario.

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deltadog03 said:
I will be interested to see how the GFS and EURO handle things again today, like all of you...... Take a look on how much better the euro was overall on last nights 0z run vs the 12z run. If you keep the timing and players on the field, my money is on the euro, GFS timing well then we have more ice/rain issues and the deep south could get mostly shut out again. I am just looking for consistency at this point.

So, 00z map vs 12z map at 3 different time stamps

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I know this is the end of the run but is that LP in gulf about to transfer to the LP off FL in the Atlantic?
 
This is definitely the exact opposite of what you wanna see, literally if the height trends for everything were reversed it would have been good. Again the 27th-28th storm had its PV lobe forecast in Nunavut 5 days out and ended up over Ontario a few days later on the models. if we even got a trend a third as large as that we'd be swimming in white gold

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We need that piece over Alaska to be much stronger and further south. Otherwise no +PNA. This run gives us a -PNA and a SER, so we'll get screwed.
12z vs 18z last night.
gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200.pnggfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-3131200.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Oh yea, that's better. Good short-term trend for us here wrt next week

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I think someone mentioned earlier this morning that with this weekend’s system getting more amped and trending NW, it would probably mean more CAA behind and mute the milder temperatures early in the week. This is certainly a sign of that.
 
ewww..ya this run is awful!! Good news is that there is a signal out there still. Much different this run.. Lets see if the doc holds the course or throws some curveballs.
 
There may be another storm after that as the +PNA finally builds with energy expected to rush south with the trough.

Edit: Nope, not fast enough.
 
Snowfan said:
I'm not worried about it right now but if the Euro looks like the GFS, I will be worried.
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I don’t think there is any reason to worry about any op run this far out. Focus on the signal that the ensembles have. Op runs will definitely waffle back and forth the next few days... I was shocked that the GFS had the 3 consecutive runs that it did
 
Chazwin said:
I don’t think there is any reason to worry about any op run this far out. Focus on the signal that the ensembles have. Op runs will definitely waffle back and forth the next few days... I was shocked that the GFS had the 3 consecutive runs that it did
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I'm not that worried because the GFS has a bias of being too fast with waves in s/w. As long as the esembles has that signal, I won't be worried. Let's see what the King of No says this afternoon.
 
This is the change we need to see on the models w/ the vortex at around day 6 to get a big storm just after the 10th, it's actually not a big one esp in light of how much things changed in the northern stream for our 27-28th storm. I know it can seem insurmountable because the sfc looks like crap and warm for many, but we're basically sitting on a very large, elongated frontal boundary, even small tweaks to the large-scale flow will lead to insane sensible wx changes. We still have 2.5-3 days ish to make this change happen or at least get closer, plenty of time left folks

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Large, Widespread SE US overunning events day -3 1970-2020.gif
 
Ollie Williams said:
The n/s on the CMC is in the ideal place, however, the PNA screws the system up.
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The GFS tried to send a similarly large PV lobe over Manitoba w/ our 27-28th storm north into Nunavut even 5 days out & most models held it back too long, curious what happens here in a few days once it gets sampled better and completes a few interactions w/ other adjacent PV lobes.
 
V16 was a little more favourable with the cold press. Verbatim a significant ice storm for central western N Carolina.
 
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