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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Fwiw, roughly half of the 0z EPS suite including the control (25 of 51 members) are showing an overrunning event along the I-40 or I-20 corridors between Feb 10-15th. There's still a lot that can & often does go wrong this far out, but there's a legit signal trying to emerge in/around this time frame, which makes sense given the pattern that's coming.

The 5-day snow mean between 18z Feb 9 & 18z Feb 14 is >1" along & north of the I-20 corridor & a lot of this isn't because of one or two big members.

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Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, roughly half of the 0z EPS suite including the control (25 of 51 members) are showing an overrunning event along the I-40 or I-20 corridors between Feb 10-15th. There's still a lot that can & often does go wrong this far out, but there's a legit signal trying to emerge in/around this time frame, which makes sense given the pattern that's coming.

The 5-day snow mean between 18z Feb 9 & 18z Feb 14 is >1" along & north of the I-20 corridor & a lot of this isn't because of one or two big members.

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Here's the 1"+ probs

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Webberweather53 said:
Most EPS members have basically locked onto the storm this weekend shooting north to the mid-Atlantic & lower OH valley. Perhaps some snow for the mountains and/or far NW piedmont of NC but that's about it

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And yet FFC went more bullish in its overnight package and introduced SN into the Sat night wording for my grid. Go figure. ?

7779B487-87F4-4DF2-9DE4-43F9307E8899.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, roughly half of the 0z EPS suite including the control (25 of 51 members) are showing an overrunning event along the I-40 or I-20 corridors between Feb 10-15th. There's still a lot that can & often does go wrong this far out, but there's a legit signal trying to emerge in/around this time frame, which makes sense given the pattern that's coming.

The 5-day snow mean between 18z Feb 9 & 18z Feb 14 is >1" along & north of the I-20 corridor & a lot of this isn't because of one or two big members.

View attachment 70234
Click to expand...
If this was to happen, it would follow up to a heavily favored climo period for us in SC. For whatever reason, the 10th-15th of Feb range has always been a good period to get Winter weather down here.
 
It’s probably not going to be extreme cold next week. However the players are still on the field. And pattern could still produce. The euro is more solid then GFS. Gfs changes very dramatically run to run


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Jessy89 said:
It’s probably not going to be extreme cold next week. However the players are still on the field. And pattern could still produce. The euro is more solid then GFS. Gfs changes very dramatically run to run


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When it can't find new ways to suck,it invents them. "Garbage Forecast System."
 
Robert West said:
If this was to happen, it would follow up to a heavily favored climo period for us in SC. For whatever reason, the 10th-15th of Feb range has always been a good period to get Winter weather down here.
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That certainly coincides with what has been a good period for CLT metro as well. At least from my on personal memory, it seems that the period from 2/8-2/23 has had a number of winter weather events for us over the years.
 
Poimen said:
Dollars to donuts that the NW solution is closer to reality.
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Yeah based on the EPS I'd say that's probably the case. Could be a chance of some onset ice or IP in the extreme western & NW piedmont/foothills around Birdman & @BIG FROSTY's neck of the woods but that would probably be the extent of any wintry weather outside the mtns in NC
 
Went to bed at 10:30 and woke up to 6 new pages. I thought there was going to be a big snowstorm or something.

I did notice some disappointment over the models, particularly the icon and gfs backing off of the cold some. I certainly understand that. But all of these models have been flipping at the end of their ranges every 1-3 days, even the Euro.

Honestly, trusting big SE ridges or historic cold intrusions is unwise. The one constant is the blocking. That has tended to verify and verify more strongly than originally pronged.

I'm hopeful that these big highs that are being forecasted will actually show up. If they do, our chances of a big storm will increase by a good margin.
 
Rain Cold said:
Went to bed at 10:30 and woke up to 6 new pages. I thought there was going to be a big snowstorm or something.

I did notice some disappointment over the models, particularly the icon and gfs backing off of the cold some. I certainly understand that. But all of these models have been flipping at the end of their ranges every 1-3 days, even the Euro.

Honestly, trusting big SE ridges or historic cold intrusions is unwise. The one constant is the blocking. That has tended to verify and verify more strongly than originally pronged.

I'm hopeful that these big highs that are being forecasted will actually show up. If they do, our chances of a big storm will increase by a good margin.
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Haven't read the previous 6 pages but the models look crazy cold to me.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-t850_anom_7day-3325600.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_anom_7day-3347200.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Agreed. Don't waste your time. Some good info, but long and short is, storm signals abound, but we still are probably 10 days out.
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This weekend deal maybe be iffy but after that the pattern looks as good as we can hope for and coupled with deep arctic cold in the conus.

I can't recall the last time I saw a piece of the PV in that spot. This is how the I-20 crew gets snow.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_7day-3347200.png
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Rain Cold said:
Went to bed at 10:30 and woke up to 6 new pages. I thought there was going to be a big snowstorm or something.

I did notice some disappointment over the models, particularly the icon and gfs backing off of the cold some. I certainly understand that. But all of these models have been flipping at the end of their ranges every 1-3 days, even the Euro.

Honestly, trusting big SE ridges or historic cold intrusions is unwise. The one constant is the blocking. That has tended to verify and verify more strongly than originally pronged.

I'm hopeful that these big highs that are being forecasted will actually show up. If they do, our chances of a big storm will increase by a good margin.
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You’re absolutely right. Blocking from a -NAO, -AO and the SER trending weaker has been a constant throughout this winter. Now we finally seeing Siberian air being tapped into and pushed into Canada and some legit snowpack to the north.
 
Quick reminder to put keep the banter and excessive complaining out of this thread. It just causes clutter from the original posts and those that choose to reply. Don't feed the trolls, and the moderators will do our best to keep this the best darn February discussion thread we've ever had. If you see a questionable post, hit the report button instead of replying. Thanks!
 
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Rain Cold said:
Agreed. Don't waste your time. Some good info, but long and short is, storm signals abound, but we still are probably 10 days out.
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Agree. Models still all show a frigid air mass in the neighborhood and/or close by. Plus, all show some form of nearly full continental trough, which is what you need for overrunning in these parts. I will be watching for that west to east to slightly west to NE orientation of the trough that taps some gulf moisture without bringing in any warm air aloft. That is how most of the board can score.
 
Rain Cold said:
Went to bed at 10:30 and woke up to 6 new pages. I thought there was going to be a big snowstorm or something.

I did notice some disappointment over the models, particularly the icon and gfs backing off of the cold some. I certainly understand that. But all of these models have been flipping at the end of their ranges every 1-3 days, even the Euro.

Honestly, trusting big SE ridges or historic cold intrusions is unwise. The one constant is the blocking. That has tended to verify and verify more strongly than originally pronged.

I'm hopeful that these big highs that are being forecasted will actually show up. If they do, our chances of a big storm will increase by a good margin.
Click to expand...

Yeah, even a little SE ridge is too much for me. It's just too hard to keep storms south of us (not much faith in overrunning). The runs of keeping the SE ridge at touch more in play and muting the cold to our north and west is not what I want to see. We can't afford it down here. Hope it turns back around the cold flow can get further south. It'd be great if we could get a +PNA, but that's just not in the cards here.

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SnowNiner said:
Yeah, even a little SE ridge is too much for me. It's just too hard to keep storms south of us (not much faith in overrunning). The runs of keeping the SE ridge at touch more in play and muting the cold to our north and west is not what I want to see. We can't afford it down here. Hope it turns back around the cold flow can get further south. It'd be great if we could get a +PNA, but that's just not in the cards here.

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I'd like to see an eastern Gulf low form and move ENE. But it seems like we have just enough of a SE ridge, like you said, to prevent that from happening. We don't see that much anymore, honestly.
 
packfan98 said:
Quick reminder to put keep the banter and excessive complaining out of this thread. It just causes clutter from the original posts and those that choose to reply. Don't feed the trolls, and the moderators will do our best to keep this the best darn February discussion thread we've ever had. If you see a questionable post, hit the report button instead of replying. Thanks!
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Ignore feature works great too, just sayin..
 
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